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OT: The Official Toronto Raptors Thread

zeke said:
so have Poeltl on the bench for those specific matchups. fine.
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Which is going to necessitate having him on the floor 25-27 minutes a night, health permitting. There is going to be an opportunity to run CMB out there as a small ball 5 about ~30% of minute. 'Those specific matchups' are most starting lineups for most teams in the NBA. You're not running most modern bigs off the court with PnR.
 
zeke said:
CMB starts 30+ mpg.

Poeltl 20-25min off the bench in specific matchups.
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CMB would get cooked against most starting centres though. The kid has been nice as a rookie, but 70% of his defensive work has been against PF-SF, and none of the major analytics systems have him as anything more than a rotation player. Why are we making him a full time starting centre when he's only been okay overall in a flexible role more suited to his size and skillset?

BPM: -0.4
CraftedBPM: -1.6
EPM: -0.8
DRIP: -1.9
Darko: -2.0
 
those numbers have been skyrocketing lately. unsurpsinging for a 20yr old rookie. kid is coming fast now. will be flat out silly to keep him out of the starting lineup soon.

king-of-the-hill-bobby.gif
 
Even back injury Poeltl grades significantly better, with all of his minutes coming in the role, against top opposition matchups.

BPM: +0.4
Crafted: +1.4
EPM: +0.8
DRIP: +0.7
DARKO: +2.4

This team's best lineup would obviously be with a healthy Jake. CMB has turned into a lovely bench option at the 3-4-5 though, matchup dependent. Just take your W on that (you were way more hopeful of him being useful this year than I was) and be happy with that. This weirdo fixation of yours that centres don't matter is just wrong though mate.
 
I give those numbers 2 weeks before they're reversed.

DARKO only updates occasionally so I wouldn't be surprised if that one is already reversed next update.
 
zeke said:
I give those numbers 2 weeks before they're reversed.
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Avatar bet? I win, I get you choose an NBA related avatar that you have to use for a month.

I don't think you appreciate how okay, just okay CMB's line as a starter since the minutes increase.

last 5:

26.6mpg
8.8ppg
8.6rpg
2.6apg
1.6stl
1.6blk
48.7% FG
22.2% 3pt

I'll take it, he's been good as a fill in. But even with that said, Mamu has been carrying most of the water at the 5 since they sat Jake, not CMB. CMB gets put in against favourable matchups like Okongwu. Mamu has been doing the lifting about top opposition.
 
ok given rookie inconsistencies.....i'll bet that CMB's metrics at least match Poeltl's by the end of the year. how about that?

30gms:

1st 10: 20.5mpg, -1.1bpm
2nd 10: 14.3mpg, -1.8bpm
3rd 10: 22.9mpg, +1.1bpm

Last 5: 26.6mpg, +1.6bpm

the improvement is coming.
 
Pwner said:
Depends on the price, like AD has to come cheap


View: https://x.com/theScore/status/2008949202186064206?s=20
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His cap hit makes it a non starter for me. You can't be spending 60 million on a guy who plays 50 games a year. He's also angling for a max extension after next season, which is team suicide imo. You have to treat it like a 2 year swing at a title and he's still really good, but he's not that guy imo.

He also doesn't want to play centre, and can't shoot 3's.

If we had actual junk salary to throw at him and he cost next to nothing and our program was in a place to take a big swing at contending, I'd be able to squint and see a world where AD stays healthy for a playoff run and maybe this group with a few bench additions could make it happen. But just to make the money work this year it's Jake (who with the injuries + extension doesn't bring value to the deal himself ) + IQ. Which is a talent upgrade sure, I don't see the dry powder sitting around for us to go and get a guard either (and Shead isn't a starting level guard imo, not if you're insisting on contending, which is the only way that move makes sense) and the other pieces we're missing.

I think we're 1-2 years away from this type of move making sense, and timing is crazy important in a potential AD move. He's not going to age gracefully and his next contract is going to be a team defining mistake.

Would rather save the dry powder, let the cap keep increasing, keep making smart depth additions like Mamu and draft picks like CMB, Jakobe, and Shead, see if we can get RJ to take a team friendly extension, stay flexible looking for value roster upgrades and take a look at what the program looks like in 12-18 months with an eye towards being ready to take a big swing by then.
 
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Fwiw, regarding RJ's potential extension. I think it's clear that he makes the team better and raises their floor quite a bit due to the lack of a true offensive Batman and his ability to carry the scoring load for stretches, be a reasonably okay spot up shooter, and a solid connector with his playmaking. Just a pretty good offensive player overall, and they should look to extend him. But in the new 2nd apron world, we can't just throw a bag at him and call it a day. Here are his most similar offensive players in impact and role according to Crafted's system, with the current camp hit:

Bane: 37M - So this is obviously the high high end. Bane grades out higher on impact (87th percentile vs 80th for RJ) is a near elite floor spacer and despite the T Rex arms, an okay defender (43rd percentile vs 10th for RJ)

Miles Bridges: 25M - Similar offensive impacts, both are bad defensively (Bridges 18th percentile). Bridges has gone to free agency and came back without a big bag and signed a 1yr/22 extension not that long ago. I don't think that's an unreasonable number to bring to RJ with term at all.

De'Andre Hunter: 23.3M - Maybe the best example of what a player with near identical impacts to RJ on both ends looks like in the current market and on a team that intends to compete for stuff. Wasn't necessarily a cap dump in trade, but is viewed as a 6th man type with a bit of an expensive contract for what he brings. Again, probably a very fair number for an RJ extension.

Malik Monk: 18.7: Also very similar impacts on both ends. RJ slightly better offensively. Recently signed extension at a similar point in his career as what RJ is going to be at if he signs This is what team friendly looks like to me. The 4/77 Monk extension with a PO in the final season.
 
eh 2 years is an eternity and we're not THAT young a team that we can piss years away.

there's definitely an AD trade that makes sense here but the devil is in the details.
 
zeke said:
eh 2 years is an eternity and we're not THAT young a team that we can piss years away.

there's definitely an AD trade that makes sense here but the devil is in the details.
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It's more about this:

C - AD
PF - Scottie
SF - BI
SG - RJ
PG - Shead
6 - Mamu
7 - CMB
8 - Jakobe

not being a championship roster even when AD is healthy and a .500 roster when he's hurt. While being capped out, and probably not having the assets to make any other meaningful moves to add a starting PG, and a backup C. That's why we're 1-2 years away imo, there just isn't the depth of talent on the roster to make good on the acquisition of a star player who has a maybe 2 year window.

Fwiw, I would expect a deal to be something like Jake + IQ + 2 FRP's. So this would be it. That would be our swing at contention, that almost definitely fails.
 
Pwner said:

View: https://x.com/ShamsCharania/status/2008990783165354053?s=20
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Yeah for most teams this would be dumb, but for Washington it's actually a good move. Trae + Sarr in the PnR could be legitimately good and he would definitely raise their floor, which is good for the development of the entire bag of kids they have in house now, as well as the likely top 5 pick they bring in at the draft.

Trae becomes less and less important to the team as they develop and by the time his extension is getting near the end, the kids should be good enough to make the playoffs despite his defence.
 
MindzEye said:
It's more about this:

C - AD
PF - Scottie
SF - BI
SG - RJ
PG - Shead
6 - Mamu
7 - CMB
8 - Jakobe

not being a championship roster even when AD is healthy and a .500 roster when he's hurt. While being capped out, and probably not having the assets to make any other meaningful moves to add a starting PG, and a backup C. That's why we're 1-2 years away imo, there just isn't the depth of talent on the roster to make good on the acquisition of a star player who has a maybe 2 year window.

Fwiw, I would expect a deal to be something like Jake + IQ + 2 FRP's. So this would be it. That would be our swing at contention, that almost definitely fails.
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the issue is that getting this team to championship level is very tough without taking a swing at a legit MVP type talent like AD.

yeah, AD probably isn't that anymore, but at the same time i wouldn't mind seeing if he can still be that kind of guy on a team with a more complete support system behind him.
 
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