The Official 2026 Off-Season Thread: Revenge of the Nerds
- Thread starter MindzEye
- Start date
Preston
MBow30 alt account
Upside. The difference is upside. Leafs aren't trading Knies for a bunch of B and C pieces. The appeal of the 4 is its distribution of outcomes. Its expected value might be similar to a package of lesser assets, but it has much higher variance and a meaningful probability of producing a true franchise player at a premium position. That's what the Leafs are chasing here.
But.. as I've stated several times and as Chayka has stated to teams, just the 4th pick is fair-ish value even ignoring the power forward bias. From a pure data and historical perspective, it's fair value. But why would that make sense for a team that's in win-now mode? It needs to be more than just the 4.
Volcanologist
Well-known member
it was the classic quality for quantity package. of course Hughes wanted to do that trade, he'd get Knies for nothing off the roster and not a single premium asset surrendered. fuck off.
hockeylover
Well-known member
still can't believe we came so close to having no 1st whatsoever this year and making that shit trade.
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
All of the offers are garbage.
You don’t trade a young, cheap, locked up, top grade power forward for something that could end up being nothing. Even if some model says they have equivalent value.
That’s why you have to add a piece that is a current good player to soften the blow if the pick busts. And then the trade looks too risky or dumb for the other side.
But hey, sometimes you trade an unsigned, non-elite, mid-20s guy who is going to be a nightmare to get signed and happily take the 4th and 45th plus a decent player.
You don’t trade a young, cheap, locked up, top grade power forward for something that could end up being nothing. Even if some model says they have equivalent value.
That’s why you have to add a piece that is a current good player to soften the blow if the pick busts. And then the trade looks too risky or dumb for the other side.
But hey, sometimes you trade an unsigned, non-elite, mid-20s guy who is going to be a nightmare to get signed and happily take the 4th and 45th plus a decent player.
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
Hughes just doing his job...
Volcanologist
Well-known member
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
4 vs 12, 28, 28 is pretty close....but I appreciate the point this new chart is making...which is that the other calculator posted in this thread felt wrong to me
And I honestly believe Habs internal data also showed this because Hughes has been trading late firsts for young players with upside ever since he took over. It's the one thing he's always done. Now the jig is up.
hockeylover
Well-known member
so i deleted it because i thought it was less straight forward than that.
there's a lot of things wrong with that package from a leafs perspective.
one of those firsts wouldn't have been til 2027 so you can include it in the wins calculation but how the fuck does that help us compete and keep matthews?
secondly, trading knies for another LW you have to wait for just to maybe be a knies equivalent, makes no god damn sense.
plus by all accounts we wouldn't accept just 4. but hey, at least at four you have a chance you might be able to get an elite C/D prospect.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
hockeylover
Well-known member
also, fucking treliving.
what a dipshit.
what a dipshit.
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
I'm not arguing why you guys hate the trade -- totally got that on day one.
just arguing the NHL calculator as some sort of bible (the way it is in the NFL, where 4th rounders step in and start)
the flaw with the NHL calculator is that most first rounders involve waiting around two years just to see if you actually have anything
there's a cost to waiting so long (or in your words "how the fuck does that help us compete and keep matthews?")
axlsalinger
Well-known member
so basically the only way that trade makes sense is through Treliving's mathematical analytics viewpoint on asset evaluation. But makes no sense through your eye-test evaluations...
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
as a longtime Athletic subscriber, currently asking Dom to create such a calculator
Preston
MBow30 alt account
Waiting could be fine for some teams. Less fine for others.
Lower upside, higher floor could be fine or preferable for some teams. Others are starving for a #1d or C and would prefer to chase the big ticket even if it means higher risk of complete bust.
The chart spits out fair expected value which is entirely useful. But expected value is just one variable. The rest will often depend on where the team is at, a gms risk tolerance, etc.
And yeah, even if we use that one single expected value variable, we aren't delusional homers for expecting the 4 pick at minimum!!!!
LeafGm
Well-known member
View: https://x.com/darrendreger/status/2070560130123313334?s=46&t=slvKDnX1n9ri7D4jpSVVzA
Nice bonus pick for a guy that wasn’t even worth extending a qualifying offer to.
And Dreger actually broke a Leaf trade!