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The Official 2026 Off-Season Thread: Revenge of the Nerds

This draft kind of feels like the 2008 draft, where Steven Stamkos is the consensus #1 as a forward with a pack of similarly-rated defensemen in the next tier below him. And if you pass on Stamkos and take one of those D, you've got strong odds of ending up with a Bogosian or Schenn instead of the Doughty or Pietrangelo you were hoping for.

Except McKenna's pre-draft numbers blow Stamkos's out of the water, and there's no guarantee any of the D available this year become as good a #1 defenseman as either Doughty or Pietrangelo.

Don't overthink it. Just take McKenna.
 
CH1 said:
I know. My question wasn’t apple for apple
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If he's Taylor Hall, he left a lot of his potential on the floor. Because Taylor Hall pretty much performed to expectations for his pre draft pedigree.

These are Taylor Hall's closest pre draft offensive comparables

Marc Savard
Wyatt Johnston
John Tavares
Matthew Tkachuk

Very, very similar offensive production to the guys he produced similar to in his D season.

We've already gone over McKenna's comparables. It's mostly generational monsters and Bedard. I'd call someone with "Taylor Hall" as the floor a can't miss #1 pick personally.
 
MindzEye said:
I'd call someone with "Taylor Hall" as the floor a can't miss #1 pick personally.
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That was my question. Apologies for not being clearer.

Tho I'm not such a devout believer in floors. Occasionally, even if rarely, things get lost in translation.
 
I just meant can't miss ppg guy. And yeah nothing is ever 100%, and there is a first time for everything. But so far, McKenna's pre draft numbers suggest ppg guy has a very high probability. I didn't mean that I think that he'll for sure be the best player in the draft or anything. I'm not into witchcraft. It's probably pretty likely but idk the future.
 
Preston said:
I just meant can't miss ppg guy. And yeah nothing is ever 100%, and there is a first time for everything. But so far, McKenna's pre draft numbers suggest ppg guy has a very high probability. I didn't mean that I think that he'll for sure be the best player in the draft or anything. I'm not into witchcraft. It's probably pretty likely but idk the future.
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Prestoquivication
 
The best part is this wasn't even a debate about whether to draft McKenna or not. And now I talked zeke out of it. That's honestly awesome. I'm the best.
 

Laine v Matthews

All you prospect pros give it your best analysis. Having only seen snippets my opinion is limited. Matthews - safer pick, two way center, older prospect, no major weaknesses, no huge tools, hoping for an yzerman or tavares or something like that. Laine - huge tools, potential weaknesses in...
www.forumice.com

Start the 2026 thread, zekie!
 
i quickly scanned that thread...more discussion about intangibles back then. it was surprising.
 
Last 20yrs of Top-5 pick forwards that played their D-1 year in CHL (asterisk - QJMHL)

#1 G.McKenna 72gms, 50gls, 167pts (57gl/190pt pace)
#1 S.Crosby* 68gms, 61gls, 151pts (74gl/182pt pace)
#1 J.Tavares 74gms, 43gls, 134pts (48gl/149pt pace)
#1 A.Lafreniere* 74gms, 46gls, 128pts (52gl/142pt pace)
#1 C.McDavid 70gms, 32gls, 118pts (38gl/138pt pace)
#1 C.Bedard 62gms, 51gls, 100pts (68gl/132pt pace)
#1 N.Yakupov 65gms, 49gls, 101pts (62gl/127pt pace)
#1 T.Hall 83gms, 54gls, 126pts (53gl/125pt pace)
#4 C.Desnoyers* 75gms, 44gls, 114pts (48gl/125pt pace)
#1 S.Stamkos 67gms, 45gls, 98pts (55gl/120pt pace)
#1 N.MacKinnon* 75gms, 44gls, 106pts (48gl/116pt pace)
#2 N.Patrick 93gms, 54gls, 132pts (48gl/116pt pace)
#3 A.Galchenyuk 68gms, 31gls, 83pts (37gl/100pt pace)
#2 T.Seguin 72gms, 26gls, 83pts (30gl/95pt pace)
#4 S.Wright 58gms, 39gls, 66pts (55gl/93pt pace)
#2 S.Reinhart 77gms, 35gls, 86pts (37gl/92pt pace)
#3 J.Drouin 50gms, 16gls, 55pts (26gl/90pt pace)
#5 B.Schenn 72gms, 30gls, 74pts (34gl/84pt pace)
#2 M.Misa 84gms, 33gls, 86pts (32gl/84pt pace)
#2 Q.Byfield 72gms, 32gls, 69pts (36gl/79pt pace)
#1 RNH 71gms, 24gls, 67pts (28gl/77pt pace)
#4 B.Pouliot 53gms, 25gls, 49pts (39gl/76pt pace)
#4 M.Marner 73gms, 16gls, 68pts (18gl/76pt pace)
#3 L.Draisaitl 68gms, 21gls, 62pts (25gl/75pt pace)
#3 K.Dach 52gms, 7gls, 46pts (11gl/73pt pace)
#2 G.Landeskog 81gms, 32gls, 69pts (32gl/70pt pace)
#3 B.Senneke 66gms, 21gls, 56pts (26gl/70pt pace)
#3 P.Dubois* 61gms, 12gls, 50pts (16gl/67pt pace)
#3 M.Duchene 69gms, 31gls, 52pts (37gl/62pt pace)
#3 M.McTavish 57gms, 29gls, 42pts (42gl/60pt pace)
#5 M.DalColle 72gms, 17gls, 53pts (19gl/60pt pace)
#4 S.Bennett 64gms, 18gls, 43pts (23gl/55pt pace)
#4 C.Lindstrom 65gms, 19gls, 43pts (24gl/54pt pace)
#3 J.Huberdeau 82gms, 26gls, 53pts (26gl/53pt pace)
#3 D.Strome 74gms, 13gls, 48pts (14gl/53pt pace)
#2 B.Ryan 72gms, 23gls, 42pts (26gl/48pt pace)
#4 E.Kane 75gms, 25gls, 44pts (27gl/48pt pace)
#2 J.Staal 80gms, 14gls, 38pts (14gl/39pt pace)
#5 B.Martin 63gms, 11gls, 30pts (14gl/39pt pace)
#5 R.Strome 66gms, 8gls, 30pts (10gl/37pt pace)
#5 B.Hayton 72gms, 11gls, 29pts (13gl/33pt pace)
 
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zeke said:
Last 20yrs of Top-5 pick forwards that played their D-1 year in CHL (asterisk - QJMHL)

#1 A.Lafreniere* 74gms, 46gls, 128pts (52gl/142pt pace)
#1 C.McDavid 70gms, 32gls, 118pts (38gl/138pt pace)
#1 C.Bedard 62gms, 51gls, 100pts (68gl/132pt pace)
#1 N.Yakupov 65gms, 49gls, 101pts (62gl/127pt pace)
#1 T.Hall 83gms, 54gls, 126pts (53gl/125pt pace)
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#WideRangeOfOutcomes
 
IMO its more accurate to compare players based on age rather than draft year. Draft year is just arbitrary because the NHL won't let 17 year olds play. But it is misleading based on experience (for example in their D-1 seasons is McDavid/Bedards 2nd year in the CHL with exceptional status, while its Tavares/McKenna's 3rd) as it is not tied to junior eligibility. Also as we all know performing at a level at a younger age is more impressive than an older age (e.g. 1.5 ppg at 16 is more impressive than 17) and DY ignores that.

But based on age

17 year old
1. Crosby - 2.71 ppg, 58 NHLe
2. Lindros - 2.61 ppg, 58 NHLe
3. McDavid - 2.55 ppg, 63 NHLe
4. Bedard - 2.51 ppg, 62 NHLe
5. McKenna - 2.30 ppg, 57 NHLe
Tavares 2.00 ppg, 49 NHLe
Lafreniere - 1.72 ppg, 37 NHLe
Yakupov - 1.55 ppg, 38 NHLe
Hall - 1.42 ppg, 35 NHLe

16 year old
1. Gretzky - 2.89ppg , 63 NHLe
2. Crosby 2.28 ppg, 48 NHLe
3. Tavares 2.00 ppg, 53 NHLe
4. McDavid - 1.76 ppg, 43 NHLe
5. Bedard - 1.61 ppg, 40 NHLe
6. McKenna - 1.59, 39 NHLe
7. Stamkos - 1.46, 36 NHLe

That completely eliminates the guys like Hall, Yakupov and Lafreniere from the equation, as they didn't really have elite production for their age. They get moved up the list because you are comparing them at 18 to players at 17.

When you adjust for league and age McKenna is barely behind Bedard/McDavid and still at a level that only the best players to ever pay produce at. And if you want to note that McKenna is almost a full year younger than McDavid thats fair.

Tavares is the only guy with that level of produciton that didn't become a superstar, but he only did it once at 16 and fell off, unlike Crosby, McDavid, Bedard, Mckenna that progressed from 16 to 17. And Tavares is still a 600 goal 1300 point career guy.
 
And looking back at Matthews/Laine, Laine was probably overrated because of his World Juniors and World championships. His Liiga produciton was really good, but well behind Barkov/Granlund. And Matthews was just kind of off the radar in Swizterland.

But at 17
Matthews: 50 NHLe
Laine: 33 NHLe

Laine was more similar to Hall/Lafreniere/Yakupov, while Matthews produced at an elite level, though slightly behind McDavid/Crosby/McKenna/Bedard.
 
Other recent elite prospects from other leagues:

Age 17
Celebrini - 59 NHLe
Hughes - 57 NHLe
Michkov - 50 NHLe
Marner - 49 NHLe
Demidov 43 NHLe
Barkov - 42 NHLe
Eichel - 42 NHLe
Kucherov - 40 NHLe
Kane - 40 NHLe
Nylander - 37 NHLe
Stenberg - 35 NHLe
Carlsson - 35 NHLe
Pastrnak - 32 NHLe
 
leafman101 said:
And looking back at Matthews/Laine, Laine was probably overrated because of his World Juniors and World championships. His Liiga produciton was really good, but well behind Barkov/Granlund. And Matthews was just kind of off the radar in Swizterland.

But at 17
Matthews: 50 NHLe
Laine: 33 NHLe

Laine was more similar to Hall/Lafreniere/Yakupov, while Matthews produced at an elite level, though slightly behind McDavid/Crosby/McKenna/Bedard.
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Matthews was somewhat similar to McKenna, in that if he’d taken the path of least resistance and played his draft year in the CHL or NCAA, he’d have put up historic numbers and even galaxy-brained contrarians wouldn’t have been arguing for Laine going 1st.

Similar to how if McKenna had just lit up the WHL again in his draft year instead of moving to tougher competition and playing against older players in the NCAA, nobody would be questioning that he’s the 1st pick.
 
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