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The Official 2026 Off-Season Thread: Revenge of the Nerds


Toronto continues to field calls on Matthew Knies. The Blackhawks have been interested for a while, as Knies (23) fits their age range to grow with Connor Bedard and the rest of their emerging core. The No. 4 pick from Chicago is absolutely in play.


It sounds like the draft may go:

1. McKenna
2. Stenberg (some uncertainty with this one but that's the speculation rn)
3. Reid


So if the Leafs feel that Carels is a near slam dunk #1 or even top pairing D, maybe the Maple Maga hillbilly is your guy.
 
For a Tkachuk like package (9+25 are roughly equivalent value to the 4) you have to consider doing it and then taking a run at Tuch to replace him.
 
You’d have to make that trade before you even know if Tuch is interested in coming here or else you’re probably worse next year that’s all.

But yeah, it’s tempting. The odds seem good 4 is better than Knies in the long run.
 
Seems to be a year where almost every team is a buyer and trying to win. Maybe it's the cap space being abundant, I don't know. Sens were forced into a futures deal that they did not want to do. And one guy they'd want to flip to picks for plays for a team that, like Florida, is not interested in a futures deal.

Might be a good time for the leafs to take advantage of that if things over corrected to the players-side in terms of valuation.

I'm hesitant to do it for just the 4, but if the blackhawks add some interesting pieces I could be tempted. These are the kinds of situations that are worth taking advantage of if you feel there is an edge in a particular market.
 
It would have to be more than #4 and we don't want more picks.

4 is actually worth 9 +25 + 50ish. Plus Brady got another 1st and 2nd.

So what does a 1st and 2 2nds equal.

Plus Knies should get more because there is competition.
 
There is definitely an avenue where they trade Knies and don't necessarily get worse. Like they can replace him with Tuch. Then they also have a potential top pair d in the pipeline.

But I would want more than the 4 for sure. With a trade like this, I want to win it substantially. I don't want decent value, I want slam dunk value based on current market conditions.
 
leafman101 said:
It would have to be more than #4 and we don't want more picks.

4 is actually worth 9 +25 + 50ish. Plus Brady got another 1st and 2nd.

So what does a 1st and 2 2nds equal.

Plus Knies should get more because there is competition.
Click to expand...

Oh agreed, I wouldn't do Knies for the 4 straight up. Even in absence of competition, Knies is younger and under cheaper control than Brady for longer. Brady is the better player of the two, but all of the other factors even out in overall value imo.

This would have to be a 3 way type deal where we get the #4 and then port the other futures to someone else for a good player now (to Vancouver for Hronek, etc).
 
MyNameIsJonas said:
I think i'd rather absorb a Joshua or something than add to the pick
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I don't think Joshua has negative value like that mate. At a 104 million dollar cap, half of the GM's in the league would take him for a mid round pick.

Also, if we're dealing Knies, there's no reason for us to bundle in any bad cap space to water down the deal even a bit. We have tons of cap space.
 
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