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Around the League 2018-2019 Edition

MacKinnon
TOI > 24 mins - 11 gp, 4 gls, 10 pts, 0.91 ppg
TOI 22 - 24 mins - 33 gp, 18 gls, 38 pts, 1.15 ppg
TOI < 22 mins - 38 gp, 19 gls, 51 pts, 1.42 ppg
 
Barkov
TOI > 24 mins - 16 gp, 8 gls, 15 pts, 0.94 ppg
TOI 22 - 24 mins - 28 gp, 8 gls, 31 pts, 1.11 ppg
TOI < 22 mins - 38 gp, 19 gls, 50 pts, 1.32 ppg
 
I'm not arguing anything. Just posting data. I'm just curious about what happens to players production as they play more, and couldn't find any articles about optimal ice time.
 
Some of this is chicken and egg stuff though right.

Like in alot of those <22min games, MacKinnon probably racked up his points early, and the Avs are in a good spot as a result, so the coach doesn't need to play him as much. In alot of the > 24min games, they're more often down and the big line hasn't been on the score sheet as much, so he's racked up fewer points but is being played more to catch up.

Need some sort of score adjustment or something.
 
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Looked into it years ago and it is difficult to pinpoint. I was doing so in responding to the usage of p/60 data and the thought that there's a linear extrapolation with usage.

Context is important but that data could also just show how difficult it is to play players at high minutes when playing 3+ games a week for 7+ months.
 
Eh I just think you're barking up the wrong tree there. Those guys only play 24 minutes when the team is in tough.
 
Yeah, I'd expect those data to line up pretty closely with score differential (high, lower minutes and low, higher minutes).
 
Maybe, but thats just one possible explanation. Another is players effectiveness decreases as minutes increase. There has to be a point where extra ice time produces diminishing returns. The question is what is that point.

24 minutes is just an arbitrary number though. And the drop off seems to start much lower than that.
 
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BeLeafer said:
Looked into it years ago and it is difficult to pinpoint. I was doing so in responding to the usage of p/60 data and the thought that there's a linear extrapolation with usage.

Context is important but that data could also just show how difficult it is to play players at high minutes when playing 3+ games a week for 7+ months.
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Yeah thats really what I want to see. Adjusted P/60 rate vs TOI distribution.

For example, McDavid averaged approx. 1 min more per gaam this year, and his P/60 dropped significantly (3.2 - 2.8) despite a career high SH%. But his P/60 returned to the level from 2 years ago, so 2017-18 also could have just been an outlier. But also all of his underlying numbers were down from his career rate. Shots/60, ixG/60, iCF/60, iSCF/60, iHDSCF/60. Adjusted for score they were all down significantly from the previous 2 years.
 
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leafman101 said:
Yeah thats really what I want to see. P/60 rate vs TOI distribution.

For example, McDavid averaged approx. 1 min more per gaam this year, and his P/60 dropped significantly (3.2 - 2.8) despite a career high SH%. But his P/60 returned to the level from 2 years ago, so 2017-18 also could have just been an outlier.
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I have a hard time remembering timelines (temporally challenged) but I think it was at least three years ago. There was no site that would allow any kind of finer breakdown on minutes played. I wouldn't be surprised if some teams have this to determine optimal ice times.

There's a lot of variables that could affect production, so you'd need a very large sample of players in various situations to get a reliable read on it. No idea how to even get the data though.
 
leafman101 said:
Yeah thats really what I want to see. Adjusted P/60 rate vs TOI distribution.

For example, McDavid averaged approx. 1 min more per gaam this year, and his P/60 dropped significantly (3.2 - 2.8) despite a career high SH%. But his P/60 returned to the level from 2 years ago, so 2017-18 also could have just been an outlier. But also all of his underlying numbers were down from his career rate. Shots/60, ixG/60, iCF/60, iSCF/60, iHDSCF/60. Adjusted for score they were all down significantly from the previous 2 years.
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I've looked at the numbers before.

Mostly using Matthews and McDavid. I found 2 things:

1. You can see a similar trend in both of them, not to actual minutes played, but to the same amount of minutes above and below their average. This indicated to me that this was more of game situation usage thing than fatigue thing. I.e. they both played more in games where the team needed goals.

2. Both of them saw a steady increase in both p60 AND minutes each year. A bigger workload each year didn't stop them from increasing their productivity significantly.
 
Minor trade of the "who cares?" variety:

Ottawa trades Zach Smith to Chicago for Artem Anisimov.


As soon as I saw the trade on my twitter feed, my first thought was that Ottawa must be picking him up either because he's on a front-loaded contract, or he's already had a large signing bonus paid out. Turns out it's both! Anisimov will be a $4.55M cap his this coming season and next, but will only have to be paid $5M in actual salary spread out over those two seasons.

So, Melnyk's gotten his favourite kind of player---a guy with a higher cap hit than the player he's trading away, which pushes him up closer to the salary cap floor, who will also be owed less actual money (about $1.5M). In terms of the actual money that he's spending on the guys playing for him, Melnyk will be hilariously far below the cap floor this season.
 
For a team like Ottawa though, it's a great strategy during a rebuild. Save that dry powder for when it counts.

We know Melnyk isn't saving the money for shit though, he's just cheap/poor (relatively speaking). But in theory it's a great strategy.
 
Taking on bad money/cap-hit in exchange for assets when you're rebuilding is absolutely a great strategy.

But that's most definitely not what Ottawa's been doing.
 
Sometimes you fall backwards into the right move. Anisimov is the better player (by a fair margin) and now you can play him up the lineup, juice his counting stats and get a real asset for him either next summer, or at the 2020 deadline.

btw...Ottawa's lineup is going to be so, so very ugly this year

Tkachuk-Anisimov-White
Ryan-Tierney-Brown
Boedker-Pageau-Duclair
Ennis-Stuff.......

Chabot-Zaitsev
Hainsey-DeMelo
stuff
 
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