Nikishin definitely isn't signing an 8 year contract after June 30th because the maximum contract length for re-signing with your current team drops to 7 years starting with the 2026-27 season (6 year limit for signing players who were on other teams or for offer sheets).
The teams have that additional carrot to wave as an incentive up to June 30th. Alex Tuch is only going to get 6 seasons as a UFA if he waits until July 1st. If another team REALLY wants Alex Tuch, and he is not going to sign with Buffalo, trading a (2nd round?) draft pick to allow for him to get an 8 year contract as part of a sign and trade happening before July 1st is more likely this coming offseason with the new CBA shrinking the maximum contract lengths starting July 1st.
Be it before or after June 30th, if Nikishin is going to commit to the max contract length, the number to the left of the 6 zeros on the AAV will be an 8 at a minimum. He's going to be the Canes highest AAV Dman if he signs for 7 or 8 seasons.
A 2 year bridge contract might look like $3 million and $5 million. 3 years might be $3 million, $5 million, $7 million. Those numbers might be conservative.
Even with just the 1 full season, Nikishin showed enough that we are not going to get away with the discounts Tulsky and crew seem to wrangle up. His entry level contract was rightfully built as if he was an NHL top 5 overall pick. His next contract will continue on at that level. He scored 11 goals in his first NHL season. He led the Canes Dmen at +18. 2nd in hits. 2nd in Blocked shots.
He's going to get paid, big time. The questions will be whether or not he and his agent are willing take their chances on a shorter term contract with hopes his play and the rising cap will eventually push him into the $9, $10, $11 million AAV range. That isn't without risks. He has had multiple concussions.... in the KHL and this big one in the playoffs a few weeks ago.
I trust the Canes front office will do the right thing for the Canes, no matter what that might be. I don't think 8 years $64 million would be enough to get Nikishin extended. Then again, every time I think that 'this player is going to take the Canes to some very uncomfortable and surprisingly high AAV', I am stunned that we got the player signed for far less money than I expected.
