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Fun with Numbers

I personally don't know why the Oilers are freaking out about defense or goalie now. They are already out of it and done for this year. They are better served to not make any stupid trade now and overpay for a questionable goalie and just take another year of drafting/building with youth and try to fix the goalie and D problems via free agency or draft day or deadline trades. They have good assets to trade and should be able to work out a decent deal for defense and goalie at some point.
 
Started to say "too late, roster freeze begins Dec. 19th", and it does.

But looked onto the fine print and see where it doesn't begin until 11:59 PM, a minute before midnight. So, there's time for something pre-arranged to go down.

Skate with the Canes was tonight, so I can see JR waiting a beat before pulling trigger this week.
 
CarolinaPen said:
I personally don't know why the Oilers are freaking out about defense or goalie now. They are already out of it and done for this year. They are better served to not make any stupid trade now and overpay for a questionable goalie and just take another year of drafting/building with youth and try to fix the goalie and D problems via free agency or draft day or deadline trades. They have good assets to trade and should be able to work out a decent deal for defense and goalie at some point.
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I think they are simply feeling the heat to compete at a higher level than they've done over the last couple of years. Simply to show improvement for their fans, who are loyal but not infinitely forgiving.
 
Less than 15 hours until the holiday roster freeze...the masses wait and wonder.... Could be a trade or the Canes could effectively do nothing other than the Lindholm assignment to Sweden with Komisarek and Khudobin simply remaining on injured reserve.
 
Will the Oilers be content to draft really early yet again, or are they finally going to try to prove to their fanbase that they'd like to move forward? They need Gleason and Peters for the latter....in my opinion! ;)
 
TheBigKahuna said:
Will the Oilers be content to draft really early yet again, or are they finally going to try to prove to their fanbase that they'd like to move forward? They need Gleason and Peters for the latter....in my opinion! ;)
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It wouldn't only be a goalie and Gleason, there would have to be at least one other player in the mix.
 
The Metro is one tight division race right now, with the Flyer, Rangers, and Devils all one point behind us.

At least we have a game in hand on the Rangers and Devils. But the Flyers are even with us in games played and have a chance to take our #3 slot with a home game against the Bluejackets tonight.

Time for the Canes to find themselves and start collecting points. And no better time to begin to do so than against the team that is just ahead of us on Friday night.

Had all week to think about it, while the Caps split their two games in hand on us in a home-and-home series with the Flyers for two points. No excuse for not being ready and focused.
 
Well, Flyers did indeed beat the Bluejackets 5-4 in regulation, so looking at the standings from the Wild Card perspective, there we are in a painfully familiar ninth spot.

Got a game in hand on them, so hopefully just a temporary loss of possession of third in the Metro.

But time to get serious guys. Because several other teams most def are.
 
More fun with numbers, this time looking at shots and shooting percentages.

When one blurs the eyes, hockey to a large degree is just playing the percentages. Take enough shots from the right places and a certain percentage of them go in the net. Prevent enough shots from occurring from the wrong places at the same time, and you chalk up a win. Not that simple, of course (hot goalies and hat tricks, in particular can mess with this stat)...and yet...it is.

The average SV% for NHL goalies has trended upward the last few years, from a more usual 0.910 average to a record 0.914 last season. However, regardless the fine-tuned SV% number, in approximate terms that means, on average, that 1 out of every 11 shots (0.909 SV%) go in.

No surprise, but that 1-out-of-11 scoring number that the average SV% would expect is also reflected in the average shooting percentage number, which is trending around 9% lately, or 1 out of 11.

So, we would expect our offensive performers to individually and collectively be above a certain number of shots in order to be expected to score a certain number of goals. Even the assists, and therefore total points, are related to this number of shots, due to rebound scoring opportunities created by the initial shot.

And, as a measure of the skill involved in those attempts (or just how unsustainably lucky a player may be, according to some advanced stats philosophies), we might expect to also see some shooting percentages higher than 9%.

I started looking at these stats expecting Jeff Skinner and Eric Staal to show up as the "black holes for the puck" that I jokingly accuse them of being. Also expected to see Semin low on shots, but high on success, due to his visible sniping skill. Was also curious to see who else was floating above the 9% "average" line, not only for last season, but as a career.

Eric Staal:

An off-season for Eric in '13-'14, as our eyes suggested, as he took about a half-shot less per game than average for him and was successful in scoring at the league average of 9.1% instead of his career average of 11%. Still, he was 35th in the league for shots taken, well below his more usual ranking.

Won't bore you with the math, but IF he had shot at his average number of attempts and enjoyed his average success rate, he would have had about 8 more goals and been flirting with 30 goals and probably 80+ points.

Jeff Skinner:

Ninth in the league in shots taken last season, even with his 11 missed games due to injury (71 GP). That's impressive and backs up the black-hole observation, as well.

That half-shot a game increase, coupled with the sniper-eye shooting percentage of 12% (1-in-8 shots instead of 1-in-11 shots), delivered a 33-goal season, despite missing 13% of the season with injuries. So maybe he just got hot/lucky, as his previous two seasons were closer to the league average for shooting percentage...or maybe he just got better.

Alexander Semin:

Took just about as many shots per game as he normally takes, but as was true for the season before this one, his shooting percentage was down from his career NHL average, plus he missed 21% of the season with injury. With that elite sniper wrist shot of his, nagging injury has been the back story for both seasons as he fielded 8.7% and 10.5% shooting percentages for us, versus his NHL career number (dragged down by the last two seasons) of 13.2%.

That's 1 out of every 7.5 attempts, versus the league average of 1 out of 11 attempts. So, sniper status confirmed, just not so much for us lately.

And the rest:

Here's the Canes roster for last season, ranked by shooting percentage.

Manny had a big year with 13.2 to lead the Canes, shooting well above his usual 10.1%.
Lindholm flashing what I expect to be...well, greatness (kind of a fan)
Tlusty (atta boy!), Skinner, Nash (!), and Semin all clocking in above league average.
The two Staal brothers logging kind of a NHL-average season for shooting percentage, both well below their NHL averages (Eric at 11.0% and Jordan at 12.1%).

So, what does it all mean? To me, it says we have the horses to produce above-average NHL offense.

Just need 'em to run, and run well.
 
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For the record, I have absolutely no doubt that Semin's wrist issues impacted both his willingness to shoot the puck and his effectiveness in doing so. His wrister just didn't have the pop he can normally generate and he compensated by going with a lot more trap/snap shots. Not nearly as effective for him.
 
Corey's work is getting a lot of attention. A fellow student in the same Business Analytics Masters program as my wife also mentioned Corey's blog site and the zone entry data collection and mapping work he's doing. I can't imagine being able to do the raw data gathering work he's doing, but it doesn't surprise me at all that some NHL teams have been contacting Corey asking what he's doing (according to the TSN story linked in bagopux post above). The resulting data gives NHL teams something else to 'think about' before committing or deciding not to commit huge dollars to players. It also gives the coaching staffs and GMs something else to consider as they plan out their team's on ice approaches.

Not to say that good old fashioned watching tape and having scouts/coaches evaluate a player and their value isn't the best way to go, but analytics sure can augment the evaluation and help teams find 'diamonds in the rough' or avoid huge financial mistakes with players that look good but in reality are killing you out there in not so obvious ways.
 
Fancy stats! I do believe they're not just a coming thing, but here to stay (and be improved upon).

Searching for metrics to quantify that "eye thing" we use is not a bad thing, although neither should be mutually exclusive to one another.

To a large degree, it is all about puck possession. So, making that a point of emphasis within the stats seems reasonable.

Those that enter the offensive zone with control of the puck and maintain or quickly regain that control certainly have the advantage for all that follows.
 
The whole world seems to have become a giant data tracking machine. What do you eat, what do you buy, what do you browse online, where do you live and why, how many times did you poop today?

Maybe I'm just too old school, but I still enjoy the game of hockey for the speed and flow and overall love of the game. I dont really want to see how many times the Canes missed the net on a scoring chance on the power play on any given night, those types of stats are downright frightening to a fan of this team!!!
 
I hear you, CanadaCanes, but conversely I personally find the knowledge, for instance, that even a terrific power play unit is only going to be successful about one time in five opportunties (would that we were that successful!) to be comforting when they keep missing shots...and frustrating when they refuse to take them, waiting for the "perfect snipe".

In fact, as long as we are getting good chances overall in a game, I am usually optimistic and buoyed by the knowledge that if we just keep this up, the damn thing will go in...eventually.

Similarly, the knowledge that overall about one-in-eleven shots slip by the goalie helps with more analog opinions about how many shots we're getting versus theirs and if they are "scoring chances" (now there's a subjective stat for you) or just harmless pucks to the goalie's logo and/or glove.

Walking the line between knowing what one is looking at and having enough knowledge of stats, including the newer fancier ones, just augments my viewing experience and provides a metric check against what I think I'm seeing down there.
 
I would dearly love to see
Zone time - how much time each team spends in the offensive zone
Puck possession time - how much time each team has the puck
 
To me the key thing in the article was the statement to the effect that, on dump ins, good teams put the puck where it can be retrieved, and where the retrieving player has options. It speaks to maintaining composure under pressure.

And Eric Staal should never, ever be the player attempting to bring the puck into the zone. He's FAR more effective as the retriever, but loses it reliably when he tries to handle it in.
 
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