Hey Nerds: Blockchain
- Thread starter zeke
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Preston
MBow30 alt account
I'm bearish overall too but I'm keeping an open mind about things. For example the market may well get a lot better before it gets worse. The potential for dire headlines, especially in the US is just too strong to be bullish right now but we need to be careful about some of these projections assuming consistent exponential growth on the spread. That may not be fully realistic. It's a poor way to extrapolate these things.
The truth is likely somewhere in between Trump's nonsense that he's spewing and and doomsdayers who don't really comprehend how these things spread. But regardless it'll be bad and it's going to start to get real scary real soon. Just not as scary as using an extrapolation model that would assume the entire planet will be infected in 20 weeks.
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turmoil is GUD
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
I'm not assuming any worst case scenarios. Humanity will be fine. (fingers crossed and not touching my face)
Just saying the market froth of 2019 needs a correction. Every asset class had a banner year (well except for pot stocks)
Look at charts for AAPL or MSFT. Parabolic moves. For the biggest companies in the world.
There's an analyst that covers Apple (forget his name) who last year correctly predicted everything about their business (sales for iPhone, iPad, etc) and slapped a neutral rating on their stock price. The stock doubled despite his pinpoint analysis. Why?
Because he could not foresee the appetite investors had to chase the stock upwards. It turns out they were willing to pay 2x as much, dollar for dollar, for earnings.
Sentiment and appetite for risk are hard to predict. I'm just betting sentiment will momentarily get a smackdown.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
Of course. Not knocking your thoughts. You're absolutely right that this bearish environment will be here until we see any sort of positive news about progress on the issue (we don't appear very close to that). I've just seem some fintwit people predict that millions will be infected in 2-3 weeks because they use a basic extrapolation model that assumes constant growth. That's not really how it works because as I said, that would assume that we'll all have corona virus in 5 months. The entire planet. I'd leave that type of projection to the medical field - they have some dire projections too, but nothing that severe.
As for Apple and several other stocks, yeah a correction is well over-due and in the long run even those in the most bullish passive positions should welcome it. It is very required.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
Someone must have realized the hilarious discount that GTII was trading at. Took 3.5% gains today and sold a bit more since I don't trust for a second that they've hit anything but a temporary bottom. I rolled some into TRUL who I feel I didn't have enough exposure to. Feeling comfortable now with my longs with a cushy cash position ready to deploy more for day trades or to accumulate more of the value plays in cannabis or elsewhere.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
Don't expect much from TRUL right now but the relative strength I've seen from them and from GTII the last two days is encouraging. I'm just not sure how much more TRUL can reasonably dump. Just looking at the house, Canaccord has been propping their SP up for months. They're the golden ticket whenever the broad market starts stabilizing. A true long for me.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
Green Thumb doing Green Thumb things. Still my largest MJ position by quite a bit so I don't mind the blast off even if I took profits all day. Trulieve unfortunately labored near close.
A green day on the market tomorrow and I like the setups for MJ. But green might be a bit optimistic. I think we push down.
A green day on the market tomorrow and I like the setups for MJ. But green might be a bit optimistic. I think we push down.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
Not certain of this one. But this could be a real signal(fake prints are what we call them). Click to enlarge and shift over to see it.
How often do these work? A lot. And I have chickened out many times on using them to full capacity. Bout four years ago, I got one very detailed FP of 35,000 on the Dow Jones. Seemed absolutely ludicrous and I forgot about it. Well we hit 29k this year.
My very first one, was silver at 50 bucks when it was around 16, silver soon after that, spiked up to 49 bucks and change. I played the futures at the time and I had 250- 1 leverage.
Just a 50 dollar bet on that silver move would have rendered insane profit. A 1,000 dollar bet? Millions....
Like I said, at the top of SPY recently got a very strong couple of FP's both indicating 307. That could have been a 20 bagger on near term options.
I have about 15 buddies who find these, I only find a few.
Nuther mysterious but highly accurate indicator is these off hour monster trades by dark pools. On BIG name stocks. Almost always results in big moves on NFLX, TSLA, AAPL AMZN etc...
How often do these work? A lot. And I have chickened out many times on using them to full capacity. Bout four years ago, I got one very detailed FP of 35,000 on the Dow Jones. Seemed absolutely ludicrous and I forgot about it. Well we hit 29k this year.
My very first one, was silver at 50 bucks when it was around 16, silver soon after that, spiked up to 49 bucks and change. I played the futures at the time and I had 250- 1 leverage.
Just a 50 dollar bet on that silver move would have rendered insane profit. A 1,000 dollar bet? Millions....
Like I said, at the top of SPY recently got a very strong couple of FP's both indicating 307. That could have been a 20 bagger on near term options.
I have about 15 buddies who find these, I only find a few.
Nuther mysterious but highly accurate indicator is these off hour monster trades by dark pools. On BIG name stocks. Almost always results in big moves on NFLX, TSLA, AAPL AMZN etc...
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