I know some pretty sharp minds that sold AAPL in the low 200s. In the end, it’s not all about smarts — there is a huge emotional component.
In this case, the fear of giving up the gains of the last decade weighed heavily on a lot of folks.
I occasionally feel a tinge of agony about missing the mega snap back rally — even though my RRSP is up 35% year to date. But since it hasn’t budged in 6 weeks, this year is feeling like a disaster.
So, yeah, perspective is paramount to combatting emotions. The other way to mitigate emotions is dollar cost averaging an allotted amount into SPY.
So I've been a bit absent both because I've got a little more going on, but also because I got a little physically tired out from all the market watching. I notice that when CNBC is on, even when in the other room and on mute, I'm distracted somehow because I know it's on. If I turn it off, I get a little more mental calm during the day, which makes a big difference actually. To your point about emotions, they're already so amped up, so having the news on just flares them up even more.
I've given up feeling annoyed over missing the lows of March 23 too. I tend to like to buy certain minimum positions, so it's not like I've got unlimited funds to just buy up all the goodie deals. The hysteria has worn off and I'm back to being content to own the several names I've basically stalked for years, and recent additions. And keeping an eye out for the next one that I really like and fits all my usual criteria. I still have eyes on Citi, but I'm getting more nervous about US banks by the day. I suppose if it falls low enough, like if the banks retest (though I don't think the broader market will), then I'll maybe dive in, but not feeling it at this level anymore, which sort of backs up my gut call to sell off the partial position I built in it. The other one I still would like to add is Uber, but I can't for the life of me figure out how it has avoided the same fate as airlines, restaurants, and hotels. It's honestly no different, and yet it's recovered from it's lows and is trading close to pre-CV levels. I'd really love to see that fall way down so I can scoop up a nice chunk and then wait for a year or two for the recovery. But if this is to be believed, it isn't falling, so I guess I'll stay on the outside looking in.
The market to me looks a little bit like a reflection of society - the disparity between the haves and have nots is widening. So while you have airlines and other sectors beat the fuck up, you have tech and supermarkets and stay at home services blasting off. We're hovering where we were not because everything has just recovered, but because the super stocks have blasted past their previous highs, and the dying stocks have dropped way below their previous lows. And there are some in the middle that haven't really moved. So maybe for all the talk about how the market doesn't reflect the realities of the world, with unemployment etc. rampant, I'm not so sure about that anymore. It's looking like maybe it is an accurate picture.