• Moderators, please send me a PM if you are unable to access mod permissions. Thanks, Habsy.

Hey Nerds: Blockchain

Preston said:
1. Catalysts can come at any time. I want a piece of that.
2. ATHs are coming for all of these names at some point, so I can either penny pinch and hope for dumps or hold a core.
3. There is a lot less risk to all of these names than there once was. They're all absolute monsters. Don't care about the tick for tick movement.
4. I've built up enough of a nest egg to give zero fucks even if these names all drop 50%.
Click to expand...
same here
 
I did take a flyer on CXXI this am....I can't not follow Jason Wild given that TER has been on of my best performing tickers
 
CH1 said:
I did take a flyer on CXXI this am....I can't not follow Jason Wild given that TER has been on of my best performing tickers
Click to expand...
I considered it but holy fuck they are balls deep in debt and haven't grown at all for about a year now (because they can't expand due to their insane debt and weak cash position). They feel more like SNDL and less like TER to me but who knows. I suck balls at playing the second or third tier names and I obviously trust Jason more than myself so I'm probably wrong to be skeptical.
 
CH1 said:
their debt is a mess, but they are working on it.

Click to expand...

Yup that was what created buzz yesterday. Clears things up in the short-term but puts a lot of pressure on them to actually grow now. Unlike TER who already had everything lined up and were clearly mispriced earlier this year, these guys have to execute or they're fucked. From what I see they haven't really laid out a plan on how they'll look at growing. I don't know... I trust Jason and all but these guys always rubbed me the wrong way. They've been pumped for years and haven't done shit.
 
  • Like
Reactions: CH1
Preston said:
Yup that was what created buzz yesterday. Clears things up in the short-term but puts a lot of pressure on them to actually grow now. Unlike TER who already had everything lined up and were clearly mispriced earlier this year, these guys have to execute or they're fucked. From what I see they haven't really laid out a plan on how they'll look at growing. I don't know... I trust Jason and all but these guys always rubbed me the wrong way. They've been pumped for years and haven't done shit.
Click to expand...

that's why it's a small position for me....I've done well with these distressed names that get a boost from an activist investor
I certainly won't be sweating every tick.

same philosophy that got me in GameStop at $4
 
CH1 said:
that's why it's a small position for me....I've done well with these distressed names that get a boost from an activist investor
I certainly won't be sweating every tick.

same philosophy that got me in GameStop at $4
Click to expand...
Oh you'll probably do well. Following the big/smart money is usually the right move. But for me, if I'm not convinced in the name and I get in and hold a bag shortly after I'll sell it for a loss. In fairness, it's pretty cheap right now so it's hardly the worst buy in the world.
 
CH1 said:
meanwhile CURA is my least performing MSO
Click to expand...
Yup. Not as profitable as the other names, have a decent amount of debt and far higher expenses which are likely due to their 5000 acquisitions and not streamlining things just yet. They'll be fine... Just a bloated stock, expensive market cap and their profitability metrics (understandably) are a touch behind the other names. Top line numbers are so far ahead of everyone else though. And will be for the foreseeable future.
 
Cresco holding up the best as I expected. Scaling out of TRUL and Thumb yesterday to allocate more to CL is paying off bigly. As I said, I think there's a decent case for CL to be worth more than Thumb. If that happens they have a lot of catching up to do... Maybe that happens by Thumb dumping and CL dumping a lot less. Either way, that quarter for me was a gamechanger for them.

Seems like wholesale is the way to go. Even Curaleaf is pivoting more to a wholesale approach.
 
  • Like
Reactions: CH1
Market caps as of this very moment and Presto's prediction on 2021 revenues (the analysts suck so let's try this and save it!):

Trulieve: $3.15b --> $900m revenue for 2021 (could me more if they acquire in another state, though that may result in dilution)
GTI: $4.06b --> $1b revenue for 2021
Cresco: $3.38b --> $1b revenue for 2021
Curaleaf: $6b --> $1.5b revenue for 2021
 
  • Like
Reactions: CH1
I thought I remembered Toddo pumping CBII. He went silent on them these last few months and this is why!



I like how he had to qualify it with "I'M USUALLY GOOD AT INVESTING BUT THIS WAS A RARE MISTAKE!"
 
Preston said:
I thought I remembered Toddo pumping CBII. He went silent on them these last few months and this is why!



I like how he had to qualify it with "I'M USUALLY GOOD AT INVESTING BUT THIS WAS A RARE MISTAKE!"
Click to expand...


He liquidated CBII ages ago, along with a bunch of other laggards like Inmed, etc.

Nobody is perfect -- but he's the one that got me into TER, AYR.A and CCHW, when nobody else was talking about them.

I send his recent interview on Real Vision to friends that want a lay of the land for cannabis investing
 
Oh yeah, he's solid. Just poking fun. He has had a lot of misses. He went really really heavy on Australia. He was really bullish on them opening the doors early and got burned badly. For awhile his twitter was just depressing. Recently he's back to being his jolly, goofy old self. I like this version way better.

His track record of late is far better now that the path is far clearer in the US.
 
Just a quick note on the deal that Jason and Todd got in on for CXXI:



So the convertibles that Todd and Jason got in on were already in the money making it an extremely attractive no brainer deal for them. Maybe they believe in the company too but they definitely sweetened the pot for them in a big way.
 
that's the way those deals work -- you get paid to lend them money + collect any upside on the warrants

still better for the company than paying 2x the interest rate elsewhere
 
Of course. Just saying this is far different than Jason's connection with TER. And my lord that is one lucrative deal that they got. Way nicer than the typical.
 
Which is understandable btw... CXXI was in no position to bargain much better than that. They are in tough.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top