Hey Nerds: Blockchain

[CH1]

Man.. People are going to make a lot of fucking coin playing the next MJ hype cycle. I didn't think we'd see 100-200% bull moves in the sector again, but some names have dumped so much that it's inevitable. Sentiment is a hell of a thing. Things will get silly again.. Problem is, bottom may not be in for quite some time.

Honestly, I'm finding it hard to keep track of all these tickers of hope. There's so much managerial shadiness and regulatory bullcrap. I don't have the bandwidth. When I trade ROKU, at least I understand their product and what metrics management is trying to reach. I feel like I can make an educated assessment. (right or wrong)

Cannabis is something else. Sure, I can sniff out a stinker like LG Capital, ISOL or MedMen a mile away.

But then there's trusted pioneers like Canntrust resorting to making the equivalent of bathtub gin.

Hard to know where to devote my attention.

 

[Preston]

Yeah. LHS jumped 27% today. Just a 200% move away from ATH.

The old adage of "the market knows best" is almost always the case but not for those CSE names, especially in this sector. These names die a low volume death because the CGC's of the world get wrecked for months on end and for now, we all follow CGC. This creates a lot of legitimately great companies but horrendous stocks - until they have their earnings and show that they're actually a really promising company. That's when you get volume for a day or three and a slow fade back to pre-earning levels when the rest of the sector continues to be shit. We're seeing that from a lot of MSOs, where in my eyes, they're more valuable than ever considering their execution is actually surpassing expectations. But Canada failed horribly, so they get punished too. Because really, no one's buying low volume, low liquidity stocks on a trash exchange. The access to capital issue is a factor too but really... That isn't a big issue for the big players.


Anyway, the point is once the hype cycle comes back those things are going to go nuts, especially with their tight floats.

It's hard to imagine right now because of the amount of despair but this is all part of the whole speculative sector cycle. Time the bottom accurately and it's an easy moonshot

 

[Preston]

Honestly, I'm finding it hard to keep track of all these tickers of hope. There's so much managerial shadiness and regulatory bullcrap. I don't have the bandwidth. When I trade ROKU, at least I understand their product and what metrics management is trying to reach. I feel like I can make an educated assessment. (right or wrong)

Cannabis is something else. Sure, I can sniff out a stinker like LG Capital, ISOL or MedMen a mile away.

But then there's trusted pioneers like Canntrust resorting to making the equivalent of bathtub gin.

Hard to know where to devote my attention.

Definitely a good point. I feel like the US names are starting to differentiate themselves with many at profitability or close to it with a clear path to growth (if you look at some financials you can even justify current valuations even if you just include bare minimal growth). But you really can't trust any of them at the end of the day. We know the US market will be fucking enormous. That is obvious. Pick a winner and you'll dominate. But there will be a shit ton of losers. Far more than winners. So that shit is easier said than done.

But the point is another hype cycle is coming and while it may not happen till CGC is at 10 or 15... It's going to come. And people will make some real cash on it once again.


I wouldn't even bother playing the tire fires or penny stocks that are the great future hope. There's GTII, CURA, TRUL, CL that are bound for at least one more hype cycle. They're either profitable or close to profitable (or in CURAs case, fucking huge backed by a Russian billionaire). They'd have to have a real catastrophe to go downhill especially with two of those names having hilarious market share in Illinois (who will be legalizing in January).

But for now the sector is definitely not worth playing. Either that shit bottoms out organically (who knows where that happens) or a catalyst helps change sentiment. And the only catalyst I can see for these LPs? Edibles sale success stories or perhaps like ten times the amount of retail shops opened in Ontario... I don't know... At this point a lot of ugly shit is priced in so it may not take as much as we think. But until then, stay out. It's dead money.

 

[CH1]

Yeah. I think I've settled on a US focus, simply out of sanity. But the regulatory/legal hurdles are difficult to price in.

Trying hard not to guess at what the bottom will be. Forcing myself to be patient.

For example, I bought calls for VFF, strike price $5 US that expire Jan 2021. Is that enough runway. Who knows?

 

[Preston]

Yeah. I think I've settled on a US focus, simply out of sanity. But the regulatory/legal hurdles are difficult to price in.

Trying hard not to guess at what the bottom will be. Forcing myself to be patient.

For example, I bought calls for VFF, strike price $5 US that expire Jan 2021. Is that enough runway. Who knows?

Very difficult to price in, absolutely. You can rest fairly easy knowing that a company like GTII will pull in upwards of 500 million Canadian in revenue next year and that's a fairly safe bet in all honesty. As with all MSOs, costs are high but with a market cap of just over 2 billion, that is half decent value for a growth stock in a country where things will only change for the better (as long as it may take). As I said though, the actual stock is a tire fire on a garbage exchange so valuations and shit don't have to make any fucking sense for a long long time.

Semi related but many MSOs are on the record stating they actually don't want federal legalization yet. They want to expand as much as possible and grow as powerhouses before big money scoops in and buys them out. If they legalized today they'd all be acquired for a lot less than they could be worth in a few years, for example. SAFE is a crucial one, as is the ability to uplift to the NYSE.. fucking essential more than anything else. STATES helps too of course... But federal legalization? Eh not as important as many think.

 

[CH1]

No doubt. SAFE is huge.

 

[CH1]

Devastating in-depth piece in today's Globe.

All dried up: How Bay Street cashed in on the cannabis frenzy before the carnage.

public link: http://archive.is/4CIsl#selection-2277.0-2277.80

The good news is that well run companies with integrity will prosper.

A few snips:

 

[Preston]

That's a great piece. Really they were always going to be bloated stocks considering how much they ran. But that in combination with the embarrassing rollout was really the perfect storm for this kind of correction. Canopy still valued at 12 billion Canadian today. Seems fairly reasonable on the surface - they're clearly going to make it longterm even if it's rocky right now, especially considering their 2 billion dollar war chest but that shit can still go a lot lower before it bottoms out. Despair cycles do not have to be remotely reasonable. 50% haircut from here? Probably not but I wouldn't count it out. I start becoming interested after another 30% or so though.

And you better believe another hype cycle is coming. Many names are dead forever but others will pop hard once again.

Perhaps after another 30-50% haircut though...

 

[CH1]

The real crime is all those shady mining execs pivoting to cannabis because it was an easier pump and dump.

And all the hedge funds who shorted the companies that were asking them for financing.

Again, it comes down to integrity. During the dotcom era, do you want to invest in Bezos who truly wanted to change how people shop or the guy who attached .com to something hoping for a quick buck.

People love to cite that AMZN has given investors an amazing 30% annual return since it IPO'd in 1997. What they don't mention is AMZN stock price suffered a 90% haircut at one point. Who holds on to their shares during that meltdown.

The Internet obviously was not in danger of dying at any point during the crash. But fear sold the good with the bad.

 

[aniablue]

Going on record with this one @ ,44 cents... Just got listed on Frankfurt... on cse....https://cambridgehouse.com/video/8172/building-a-highperformance-game-dev-infostructureampd-gaming-technologies

going on record @ . 44 cents. Just watch... Just watch this one..

Bros, listen to this, we are going to rock here. Rock, going on record @. 44 cents Canadian....

 

[aniablue]

How to spot a fake and a world class multi million dump. Watch this...

Anyone notice how similar this was to earlier pumps and dumps of Kimbo Slice?

Its amazing how the central media participates We do not want to believe it.. but Mindzeye, watch the clip... Let me know what you think?

Remember there is a multi B behind these poor guys.

 

[aniablue]

I actually like this guy but the media wants me to like this guy. The media wanted me to dislike Connor McGregor and I FELL for it.

Its amazing the b.s. in this industry...

Nate Diaz... is he real. Hell no.. He is the biggest fake out there...Huge fake... Old Kimbo slice fake shots??? Guys please.... More fake pre fake..

What was real? What is real? Auston Matthews wrist shot. Bobby Hull's slapshot.

Everything else? Lets get Tom Wilson and see..

 

[CH1]

According to Business Insider:
Massive US wealth managers like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, and Wells Fargo are starting to let clients invest in cannabis stocks

So stuff like ACB, VFF etc are catching a bid.

 

[Preston]

According to Business Insider:
Massive US wealth managers like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, and Wells Fargo are starting to let clients invest in cannabis stocks

So stuff like ACB, VFF etc are catching a bid.

Sorta feels like the tides are (very very slowly) turning. Some solid news coming in slowly. We have a lot of ugly shit out of the way now which is all priced in and now future growth is priced in at a far far lower multiple. We're almost at a point where it news-wise it can't get any worse.

Bears in general are exhausted if you look at the CGC chart. Haven't seen significant bear volume in at least 3 weeks now and anytime we see a volume spike and downward pressure, there is absolutely no follow-through. Bulls are clearly cautious and not exactly jumping to buy (and lacking the very same follow-through) but I think CGC earnings coming up next week could be a major major catalyst. Granted, they could be another trainwreck and not even meet the already low expectations.. But if they do meet them or even exceed them? Perhaps some uncertainty is gone and maybe.. Just maybe.. Things have bottomed and we can be on our way. Lots of work to do but for the first time in several fucking months.. There are signs that things may be on their way. MSOs still quite weak but they'll follow if LPs get some follow-through.

 

[CH1]

I plan to gamble into CGC earnings with the idea that the kitchen sinked most of the bad news last quarter for the new CEO

 

[Preston]

I plan to gamble into CGC earnings with the idea that the kitchen sinked most of the bad news last quarter for the new CEO

I like this bet. Much like your gamble with Aphria a couple months back, it almost feels like it's a case of "it can't get any worse." I'm not expecting anything solid or promising really, but neither is the market. That's a good spot to be in as a bullish investor.

 

[CH1]

I'll start today, hoping for some short covering before earnings.

 

[aniablue]

New issue on the CSE last week, is gaining traction. Guy behind CSU took down a very large portion of the .35 cent subscriptiion AMPD.

They put out a pr after hours yesterday. Its a very, very cool company Canadian and kicking Google and Amazon's ass in a key sector.

Their buildings create their own free energy and clean drinking water, so the environmentalists are going to be all over this one. I buy it whenever there is a dip, pretty much since it opened up.

The CEO imho is brilliant and I really think this company has no discernible limit to growth.

 

[CH1]

VFF with a sexy finish today

 

[aniablue]

Got some more AMPD @.54 cents earlier today, trading @ .59. Its quite a company, I hope they go all the way.