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zeke said:
Dow is down now what? almost 15% from peak last friday?

is that still just "correction" territory? (honest question)
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I think so, yeah. Like CH has been saying, the corrections are just a **** of a lot more efficient now with algos doing them instead of human managers so we're in new territory here on how these corrections look. This is the first correction on the back end of a pretty ridiculous 19 month bull run (DOW was at 17,500 in June of 2016), and the correction keeps seeming to find it's floor in the 23500-24000 range...which is still a 35-38% return over 18 months (which is kind of ridiculous...over the previous 18-19 month period the market was flat...from ~17500 in January 2015 to ~17500 in June 2016)

Which isn't to say that the market won continue to correct, but I think the word "crash" needs to be reserved for incredible market events:

Black Friday, Flash Crash, 9/11 were legit market crashes. This is volatile but appears resilient at certain levels. Tons of time to evacuate the market if you're so inclined at decent levels.
 
Also, many institutions were consistently banking coin shorting volatility instruments. That trade lasted forever until it crashed Monday between 4PM and 4:15.
 
Bit of a power hour for cannabis (outside of the usual laggers HVT and APH). Good to see a bit of sideways action there lately.
 
Hoglund14 said:
Holding TNY must be what doing crack is like. Jesus Christ these swings are insane. Killing it in this late bull run.
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You say that Tinley 27 is on shelves in month? Buy baby, buy.
 
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You think volatility is your ally? You merely adopted volatility, I was born in it, molded by it.


Seriously, I'm glad that I've become accustomed to it. It makes my other plays when I dabble outside of MJ seem boring by comparison, which is a really good mindset to have. Emotional detachment wins.
 
Ridiculous volatility this week, and somehow my MJ plays returned a bunch of the value they lost over the previous 2 weeks.

I'll take it.
 
I took my BABA cash and ran. Almost everything except pot is a rental.
 
I don't have the heart for TNY but I'm certainly starting to get a really strong mindset for this game. I bought most of my shit at near ATHs and I'm not even remotely concerned. Then again, I didn't dump everything I have into MJ like mindzeye so that helps..
 
What do you think or HVT? I still believe in my other plays but I'm starting to question myself on HVT.. I ain't selling regardless but I'm starting to wonder if that was a great decision.
 
Hoglund14 said:
What do you think or HVT? I still believe in my other plays but I'm starting to question myself on HVT.. I ain't selling regardless but I'm starting to wonder if that was a great decision.
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Pay attention to the outdoor growing issue. If it drags and looks like it's not going anywhere, pull the pin. If it looks like outdoor growing is going to be allowed, Harvest One should run.

As a general rule I'm meh on "me too" Canadian growers. I think anything you hold now will pay off during the next hype cycle, but I've personally moved on from Canadian plays (I did well on WEED, APH, MJN and a couple others a while back) and am focused on the US market now, just because the upside is stupid. It's like being in on Canopy at 3.00 again.

I think the saving grace for the "me too" holders is going to be twofold:

1) the M&A round of our competition. At some point the big kids are just going to go shopping in a way the industry hasn't seen yet. The management groups of the biggest players are going to want to drive share price as hard as they can to continue the best dilution deals they can manage for as long as possible. The best/easiest way to do that in a growth market is just to buy companies (the Valeant theory works, even if they were greasy as **** and didn't). So the odds of your favourite Me Too play getting bought for a strong valuation is good, especially if they have something the big boys want (physical growing space/assets, IP, etc)

2) For the first few growing cycles after legalization, the industry is going to be in need of every gram of production that everyone can strangle out of their grow rooms. Revenues for everyone will be there for a bit until supply evens out and shit gets competitive (and things like branding, distro, etc start to really make a difference).
 
MindzEye said:
Ridiculous volatility this week, and somehow my MJ plays returned a bunch of the value they lost over the previous 2 weeks.

I'll take it.
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Amazing if you're daytrading. I remember when grabbing 10 ES points would take a few days. Now you get that in 5 mins.
 
Hoglund14 said:
What do you think or HVT? I still believe in my other plays but I'm starting to question myself on HVT.. I ain't selling regardless but I'm starting to wonder if that was a great decision.
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Not a good stance IMO. Sometimes the facts change. It's OK to be wrong, not OK to stay wrong.
 
MindzEye said:
Yeah, I wish I was at that point in my development, this would have been a treat.
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Obviously, this week was exceptional but the last two years were exceptional in reverse. Things went up but slooooowly. A few weeks ago, SPX finally enjoyed a +1% move. It was the first big day in a long time. Ironically, it pretty much marked the top.

Long story short, I think a more traditional mid-level of vol will soon return. Great for stock pickers and two way traders. Not so good for passive investors used to seeing their ETFs safely grind upwards. Risk is back, baby. And market followers should all be thankful.
 
Oh yeah of course. I am just a little less confident about the outdoor thing today than I was a few weeks ago. Institute like their upside and perhaps we a longterm play.. but I'm starting to wonder if it'll ever happen. I do think that upside is less for the APHS and WEEDs than TNYs but I feel very comfortable going with them for the next few years.
 
Hoglund14 said:
Oh yeah of course. I am just a little less confident about the outdoor thing today than I was a few weeks ago. Institute like their upside and perhaps we a longterm play.. but I'm starting to wonder if it'll ever happen. I do think that upside is less for the APHS and WEEDs than TNYs but I feel very comfortable going with them for the next few years.
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My only word of caution with the big Canadian plays, and this likely isn't a concern for a couple of years....but sooner or later MJ will be fully commodified and anyone who isn't doing value add in their product chain will lose, and lose hard. It's where WEED's deal with Constellation is important. I don't think Constellation got involved just to grow weed. They've gotta be looking at beverages, etc. I think the first round of M&A we'll see will focus on growing space/production and the second round will be value add (edibles, drinks, oils, biopharma) as the big kids look to be one stop shops of value add for their crops.

I don't know anyone who can name their favourite tomato farmer, but I bet the entire board could name a dozen of their favourite tomato product makers. Those are the companies that win, not the tomato growers themselves.
 
Yep. It's just a plant. When prohibition ended, Budweiser was the investment move, not the hop growers.
 
MindzEye said:
My only word of caution with the big Canadian plays, and this likely isn't a concern for a couple of years....but sooner or later MJ will be fully commodified and anyone who isn't doing value add in their product chain will lose, and lose hard. It's where WEED's deal with Constellation is important. I don't think Constellation got involved just to grow weed. They've gotta be looking at beverages, etc. I think the first round of M&A we'll see will focus on growing space/production and the second round will be value add (edibles, drinks, oils, biopharma) as the big kids look to be one stop shops of value add for their crops.

I don't know anyone who can name their favourite tomato farmer, but I bet the entire board could name a dozen of their favourite tomato product makers. Those are the companies that win, not the tomato growers themselves.
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Oh yeah I'll be keeping an eye on things and bowing out when the time is right (or when I think it's right). As a starter into these investments I just felt most secure going with the big boys because imo, at least for the relative short term there's no safer play out there. HVT and MARI are my smaller plays have upside that I loved and followed for the past 10 months or so. If it's looking more like outdoor growing ain't happening I'll sell.. again I'm a little less confident than I used to be about it but the upside is keeping me in it and will for awhile I think.

I kind of looked at the Canadian plays all of last year, learned about them and the entire sector. Now that I bought them I'm starting to do more homework on some American boys. That is very clearly where I'm heading next. And I won't wait a full year like I did with Canada.. don't want to miss the boat again. I also need to make sure I can handle the volatility mentally or really there's no point in continuing this charade for much longer. Better off sticking with my ETFs and grabbing 5-6% per year returns.
 
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