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Jan 31: Toronto Maple Leafs @ Dallas Stars 8:30pm/SNO

Artnes said:
They had 3 blowout games this season and responded with a win after each. Move on and continue the trend
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Yeah, I'm a lot more concerned about the response than I am about the stinker last night. Every team's going to have them from time to time.

So far this year, they've been very good about preventing one or two crappy efforts from turning into a full-blown slide, so hopefully that'll continue.
 
number17 said:
Wondering if anyone has Bozak's CF% before and after the Marner switch from last night's game
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Not sure about corsi, but he was at alarmingly catastrophic numbers (in the negative) for expected goals against with Marner on his line. I'd imagine things improved quite a bit when they switched the lines, but those are the raw values as opposed to score adjusted, which wouldn't be as positive.
 
Preston_Mizzi said:
Not sure about corsi, but he was at alarmingly catastrophic numbers (in the negative) for expected goals against with Marner on his line. I'd imagine things improved quite a bit when they switched the lines, but those are the raw values as opposed to score adjusted, which wouldn't be as positive.
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Cause I was debating with a friend and he doesn't believe Bozak's possession dropped with Marner removed from his line, though eye test told me bozak's line was hammed in even more than usual after Marner was replaced by Brown (who's a pretty strong possession player by himself)
 
number17 said:
Cause I was debating with a friend and he doesn't believe Bozak's possession dropped with Marner removed from his line, though eye test told me bozak's line was hammed in even more than usual after Marner was replaced by Brown (who's a pretty strong possession player by himself)
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Oh no. For last game Bozak's fancy numbers most definitely improved after Marner was gone from his line. But again, that was more a result of the score. Dallas went into a shell.

With Marner on Bozak's line, their numbers were catastrophic. Like.. Worst they've been all year bad.
 
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This was, I believe, after the 1st period. It is probably the ugliest thing you will ever see from a single line. This is why small sample sizes to judge a line do not work.. But make no mistake - that line with Marner was absolutely mortifying last night.


And no - Marner does not help the situation defensively. Supreme talent and I don't really care about the corsi of a guy that can score 70-80 points a season.. But I really don't think he'll be that great of a possession player, even away from Bozak.
 
Interestingly, my debate with my friend turned into a comparison of Bozak's xGF60, GF60, xGA60, GA60 and GD60 to the rest of '3rd line centers' in the East.

And end result is, comparing both GD60 and xGD60, Bozak is 3rd in the East among Eastern 3C's (behind Andrew Shaw and Zack Smith) ... now of course this is a somewhat skewed view because Bozak is not REALLY a 3C. No 3C in this league gets the like of Marner and JVR on his wing, but at least JVR is making good on the opportunities, and though he is giving up a lot of scoring chances (and goals) he is also scoring a lot in ES.

He is net 0.28 xGD60 and 0.21 GD60, which means he is scoring more than he is giving up in ES.

The analysis also does confirm Bozak is very bad defensively ... among the very worst defensively among 3C's (highest xGA60).
 
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