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Les Habitants Prospects Thread

habsss said:
Yeas, me too. But how do go about scoring the most goals? A team with 12 offensive forwards isn't necessarily going to score the most goals. Or rather, the goals that they score are going to be trumped by the goals they allow because they aren't willing to win the battles for the loose pucks nor sacrifice the body to clear the zone nor block a shot. They will also wear out pretty quick as opposing teams grind them out over the course of the season.

I don't think I need to explain you the importance of grinders, energy guys and PKers. You obviously can't think we should have signed Derek Roy (37 points, 1M salary) instead of Malhotra (13 points, 1M salary) to centre our 4th line, right?

So now that we agree, where do you propose we find those third liners?

Free agency? Yes, assuming they are allowed to walk and they reach free agency eligibility and are still healthy enough to play a physical style of hockey.

Trade? Yes, but remember that other GMs equally value a high-end grinder. Think of Alex Chiasson who was traded for Spezza. How about Dustin Brown? You think Dean Lombardi is going to trade him for Desharnais? I mean, he only scored 29 points last year whereas Desharnais scored 52. Surely we can easily swap the two players, right?

Later in the draft? Yes, I agree with you: ideally is where one would find them. However, if there is a special prospect who also happens to be one of the biggest guys in the entire draft, why do we have to specifically target an offensive minded forward with that selection? How long do we wait before we make our move, knowing that 24 GMs are drafting ahead of us?

I'll concede you this much: we should have probably traded down 10-15 spots and then took McCarron with the 35th overall.

In conclusion, I agree that high-talent is more important than brawn. However, you can't draft exclusively for talent either or else you miss out on the other crucial elements of a hockey game. Considering we had to trade for or acquired via free free agency (at a premium) our entire bottom six, I think there is nothing wrong with drafting and developing our own physical forwards every once in a while.

We just have to hope now McCarron makes it to the NHL one day.
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solid post :worshippy:

Plus we took the high skill risk/reward in the second round in Lehkonen . With him Hudon , Andrighetto, Reway , Thomas , etc..... I bet none of these guys ever make it and stick on a top 6 except maybe the finish kid . These guys are either top 6 point producers or JUNK , they have no other role with us. McCarron like you said with his size , and hopefully improved play at least can have a role on this this team on a bottom 6.

You can stick him one the second pp and plant himself in front of the next with garbage goals . He can be a physical player along the boards or just give us some much needed size and give his line some presence on the ice .

I respect posters who research stats , trajectories , projections , Corsi . etc..... and yes maybe Lucic is 1 in a million , and Mike wont be one

The Kings and Hawks won cups and you need the Bickel`s , King`s , Lewis`s , of the world

Lets hope he pans out instead of throwing him under the bus and if he doenst pan out , no big deal cause most of our highly skilled smaller guys wont
 
Just because I said take a high skill guy, I didn't say take a smaller guy.

Max Pacioretty was a first rounder.

I love the pick of Nikita Scherbak.

We could have taken Adam Erne, Jason Dickinson, Valentin Zykov. Guys who are both big and have skill.


Guys who have size and skill go in the first two rounds.... in later rounds you can get those skill guys without size, fine or you can get the unskilled grinder type... but we need some size and skill in the top 6, not just size on the bottom 6.

The reason LA won is not because they have size.... it is because they couple that size with high-end skill. Kopitar, Jeff Carter, these guys are big and they put up points.

This idea that its either size or its skill and you can't find a guy who has the potential to have both at 25th overall is just stupid.
 
never said that its size or skill , its simply you need many pieces and role players and I hope he pans out for us .
 
Everyone HOPES he pans out.

I'm a Habs fan first.... I HOPE he scores 50 goals in the NHL, adds a bunch of assists, wins the art ross and hart trophies, and leads us to the Stanley Cup too.

Hope is not a plan.
 
The problem wasn't taking McCarron or a guy like him. The problem was taking him so early in the draft.
 
worm said:
The problem wasn't taking McCarron or a guy like him. The problem was taking him so early in the draft.
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Agree, but Habs knew some dumb GM, would look at sheet and see 6'5" 230lb winger and start drooling and with numerous early picks, Timmins/Bergevin said screw it take the goon and just hope he becomes his idol.
 
I'm still waiting for one of the McCarron apologists to explain to me how a player who can't play in Junior is suddenly going to be able to play in the NHL.

I've probably asked a dozen times already and I think the best I've heard is "Look at Moen!". Great, one player out of thousands.

All this talk about needing size & net presence and yada yada yada...

The fact that he's a giant among boys and still can't dominate is even more damning.
 
nbhab said:
Agree, but Habs knew some dumb GM, would look at sheet and see 6'5" 230lb winger and start drooling and with numerous early picks, Timmins/Bergevin said screw it take the goon and just hope he becomes his idol.
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So let the dumb GM take him early.... don't become the dumb GM.

At this point Connor Crisp looks like the better prospect between the two anyway, and he was available in the third round.
 
BKerr said:
12 scoring forwards is such a strawman argument. Yes I agree a team takes all types.

Look at our current team abd our prospect system. We have one true top notch first liner (max) one we hope will get there (ag) and some second line guys. Yes we need grinders. But its not like we are so flush with true scorers that we ignore this.

Also no team has ever ended up with too many elite players. If that ever becomes a problem trade one for 3 or 4 mccarrons. These deals can be made.

Are third liners moving teams? Yes every day. You cherry picked brown and chiasson.

Two years ago when steve ott was valuable he was moved for derek roy.

Brian Boyle walked in free agency.

We picked up prust just 2 years ago.

Steve downie went for a million bucks.

Matt hendricks has been moved for a backup goalie last year and also walked as a ufa.

Mike brown claimed on waivers now 1.2 million

Dale weise traded for diaz.

Etc... etc....

To me... walking into a draft and saying lets take McCarron he might be able to develop into 3rd or 4th line grinder in the first round... hey every team needs those... is almost the same as saying, hey i know we have a great goalie in Price, and young kids in both Tokarski and Fucale, lets draft Hayden Hawkey at 26th overall, we might develop into a great backup one day and every team needs a backup goalie.
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Indeed, Max Pacioretty is arguable our best and only elite forward. In fact, he is the best forward we drafted in the last TWENTY years.

Incidentally, he wasn't even projected to turn into an elite player, which is further proof to my argument that sometimes you draft for the physique and then work with him to hone his hockey senses as he develops in the organisation. However, I am not going to elaborate on this too much here.

Do you realize how hard it is to draft for a TRUE ELITE player?

You have to weight payoff versus likelihood of realization. Yes, the payoff is amazing but the likelihood of him succeeding are very slim.
For every Giroux, there are 10+ Leblancs. And when they don't develop into bonafide scoring threats, they are worthless because they can't do anything else.

I would rather have Kyle Clifford from that year. Not nearly as talented as Louis, but his size and hustle allows him to bring significant value to his team on a bottom six role.

Is it really worth to invest all your draft picks into one type of player at the expense of others? How do you fill the other roles on a hockey team?
 
Here is the difference between pacioretty bot being projected as elite and honing his senses and mccarron.

Pacioretty was always a high scoring player in his age group. Always.

He scored over a ppg (63 in 60) in the ushl in his draft year.

He scored over a ppg at michigan as a freshman.

Mccarron has never scored near that level.


Again youve never answered the question.

How many players who score less than 0.6 ppg in junior like mccarron even make the nhl? How many kids who couldnt score for the usntdp for 2 years in the ushl even make it?

If you cant dominate juniour levels.. why are you even going to make the nhl... even on bottom lines?

The stats show it. It just doesnt happen. Guys dont suddenly develop scoring touch (except extreme rare cases).

Almost every player who makes the nhl even as a grinder could score in junior.

Kyle clifford had 57 points in 58 games at the same age mccarron just scored 34 in 66.

Is it worth it drafting guys who can score in every round? Yes! Absolutely ****ing yes

Why? Cause the guys who dont score in junior dont even make the nhl.

The third and fourth line grinders... the kyle cliffords... the max lapierres... the ryan whites... of the nhl are all high scoring junior players.

But besides that. Look at the link I posted last night. Where do bottom line players come from.

There is overwhelming evidence that the vast vast majority of top 6 players come from the first two rounds of the nhl draft. While bottom 6 players... they come from every round (and most dont even stay with their team)

The stats are clear. The success of nhl players is clear. In the top 2 rounds you should
NEVER draft a kid who has third line upside. It doesnt make any sense with all we know. It doesnt make any sense to use a first or second rounder who doesnt have a ceiling of a top6 fwd or top 4d. The ability to fill your bottom lines and bottom pairs in late rounds or cheaply in free agency is seen. The ability to fill your top 6/top 4 is NOT there
 
BKerr said:
Just because I said take a high skill guy, I didn't say take a smaller guy.

Max Pacioretty was a first rounder.

I love the pick of Nikita Scherbak.

We could have taken Adam Erne, Jason Dickinson, Valentin Zykov. Guys who are both big and have skill.


Guys who have size and skill go in the first two rounds.... in later rounds you can get those skill guys without size, fine or you can get the unskilled grinder type... but we need some size and skill in the top 6, not just size on the bottom 6.

The reason LA won is not because they have size.... it is because they couple that size with high-end skill. Kopitar, Jeff Carter, these guys are big and they put up points.

This idea that its either size or its skill and you can't find a guy who has the potential to have both at 25th overall is just stupid.
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Guys who have size and skill go in the top 10. Think Barkov and Nikushkin.

Erne, Dickinson and Zykov are neither very big nor very skilled. They're above average. While it's possible they make it to the NHL, they are NEVER going to become power forwards because they don't have the physique. Erne is 6"1 and Dickinson is 179 pounds. Can't teach size.

Between the three of them and McCarron, the latter is actually the best example of a high-risk-high-reward type because IF he makes it, and I know the odds are against him, he is going to be a MONSTER at the NHL. The other three look nothing more than your run-of-the-mill borderline Top6 forwards, which are valuables yes (for the record I like Zykov the most) and I would very happy to have them in my prospect pool, but they aren't very different from say Lars Eller.

Again, happy to have them but can't draft everybody.
 
BKerr said:
Here is the difference between pacioretty bot being projected as elite and honing his senses and mccarron.

Pacioretty was always a high scoring player in his age group. Always.

He scored over a ppg (63 in 60) in the ushl in his draft year.

He scored over a ppg at michigan as a freshman.

Mccarron has never scored near that level.


Again youve never answered the question.

How many players who score less than 0.6 ppg in junior like mccarron even make the nhl? How many kids who couldnt score for the usntdp for 2 years in the ushl even make it?

If you cant dominate juniour levels.. why are you even going to make the nhl... even on bottom lines?

The stats show it. It just doesnt happen. Guys dont suddenly develop scoring touch (except extreme rare cases).

Almost every player who makes the nhl even as a grinder could score in junior.

Kyle clifford had 57 points in 58 games at the same age mccarron just scored 34 in 66.

Is it worth it drafting guys who can score in every round? Yes! Absolutely ****ing yes

Why? Cause the guys who dont score in junior dont even make the nhl.

The third and fourth line grinders... the kyle cliffords... the max lapierres... the ryan whites... of the nhl are all high scoring junior players.

But besides that. Look at the link I posted last night. Where do bottom line players come from.

There is overwhelming evidence that the vast vast majority of top 6 players come from the first two rounds of the nhl draft. While bottom 6 players... they come from every round (and most dont even stay with their team)

The stats are clear. The success of nhl players is clear. In the top 2 rounds you should
NEVER draft a kid who has third line upside. It doesnt make any sense with all we know. It doesnt make any sense to use a first or second rounder who doesnt have a ceiling of a top6 fwd or top 4d. The ability to fill your bottom lines and bottom pairs in late rounds or cheaply in free agency is seen. The ability to fill your top 6/top 4 is NOT there
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Because you invented that threshold with no understanding for predictive statistics. I think I am going to do my own data analysis just to shut you up (no offence). Will you put it up on your blog?

Btw, McCarron played in the U17 and the U18 championships which I suppose would put him in the what... top 200 most talented hockey players in the world? Is that a fair evaluation? It's not like he's a scrub who is learning how to play. The difference between scoring 20-30 points in juniors is not so big and can be explained by other factors that are not directly related to the players' hockey skills.
 
Your goung to do a statistical analysis.that shows players in the ohl who barely score over .5 ppg in their post draft year are successful nhl players? Good ****ing luck with that.
 
habsss said:
Because you invented that threshold with no understanding for predictive statistics. I think I am going to do my own data analysis just to shut you up (no offence). Will you put it up on your blog?

Btw, McCarron played in the U17 and the U18 championships which I suppose would put him in the what... top 200 most talented hockey players in the world? Is that a fair evaluation? It's not like he's a scrub who is learning how to play. The difference between scoring 20-30 points in juniors is not so big and can be explained by other factors that are not directly related to the players' hockey skills.
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BKerr said:
An interesting look at drafting for your bottom 6.

http://www.mc79hockey.com/2012/06/where-do-bottom-six-forwards-come-from/
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By the way... the study isnt on my blog.

But read this. Look where top 6 forwards are drafted (overwhelming majority in top 60) and how you can find bottom 6 guys in literally every round and as undrafted. (Yes more early but the extreme dropoffs to third... fourth... fifth rounds doesnt happen and these grinders are still available).

Then explain why youd draft a guy with third line upside when a team is desperate for top line talent in the farm system at 26th overall.

To me, unless you think the guy is going to become Bob Gainey and a hall of famer on the third line, you shouldn't take him in the first round.... Unless you can project the guy making the top 6, you shouldn't take him.
 
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People are still trying to defend the McCarron pick?


wow


Hey, maybe Terry Ryan can still make it.
 
habsss said:
Because you invented that threshold with no understanding for predictive statistics. I think I am going to do my own data analysis just to shut you up (no offence). Will you put it up on your blog?

Btw, McCarron played in the U17 and the U18 championships which I suppose would put him in the what... top 200 most talented hockey players in the world? Is that a fair evaluation? It's not like he's a scrub who is learning how to play. The difference between scoring 20-30 points in juniors is not so big and can be explained by other factors that are not directly related to the players' hockey skills.
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Is he in the top 200 hockey players in the world? No.

Is he in the top 200 in his age group? Yeah. I'd take him in the third round.

Is he in the top 25 where he was drafted? HELL NO
 
I'm hoping he has a good second year here in London. I believe he will have a much bigger role. Tinordi was much better in year two. I believe MM will be as well.
 
habsforever said:
I'm hoping he has a good second year here in London. I believe he will have a much bigger role. Tinordi was much better in year two. I believe MM will be as well.
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Yea, but he'll never...i repeat (4000 times) never make it to the NHL.


signed BKerr
 
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