Les Habitants Prospects Thread

[habsforever]

Yea, but he'll never...i repeat (4000 times) never make it to the NHL.


signed BKerr

I didn't follow the Knights as much this season. I did see him play live once vs the Soo and wasn't impressed. He did have a solid camp last year in Montreal.

IMO I think he came to London thinking he was king shit. Frist round pick, had a solid first pro camp. He seems more humble now. I hope he is putting in the work this summer.

 

[BKerr]

Guys who have size and skill go in the top 10. Think Barkov and Nikushkin.

Erne, Dickinson and Zykov are neither very big nor very skilled. They're above average. While it's possible they make it to the NHL, they are NEVER going to become power forwards because they don't have the physique. Erne is 6"1 and Dickinson is 179 pounds. Can't teach size.

Plenty of 18 year olds are skinny. Dickinson is 6'2 and will add weight.
Did you watch the Memorial Cup? Did you watch Guelph and London play? There is not one person who could have watched that tournament, or the OHL playoffs where Guelph beat London in five games, or the OHL season, and believe that McCarron is a better player than Jason Dickinson. You can't do it. Its clear to all that Dickinson is head and shoulders ahead of him as a hockey player... 3 inches be damned. And if McCarron can't dominate against junior aged kids with his size advantage, what is that size gonna mean in the pros when his opponents will have put on the weight, and will be bigger and stronger than the d he is facing on third pairings while playing on London's bottom six.

Between the three of them and McCarron, the latter is actually the best example of a high-risk-high-reward type because IF he makes it, and I know the odds are against him, he is going to be a MONSTER at the NHL. The other three look nothing more than your run-of-the-mill borderline Top6 forwards, which are valuables yes (for the record I like Zykov the most) and I would very happy to have them in my prospect pool, but they aren't very different from say Lars Eller.

Again, happy to have them but can't draft everybody.

Maybe none of them makes it as a top 6 forward.

But you've already said the chances of McCarron even making the NHL, the odds are against him.

I'd rather have Zykov, or Dickinson, or Erne where yes, they are likely run of the mill top six guys, but have those long odds to be elite players, than a guy who has long odds to even be a Monster third liner.

 

[budman89]

Just because I said take a high skill guy, I didn't say take a smaller guy.

Max Pacioretty was a first rounder.

I love the pick of Nikita Scherbak.

We could have taken Adam Erne, Jason Dickinson, Valentin Zykov. Guys who are both big and have skill.


Guys who have size and skill go in the first two rounds.... in later rounds you can get those skill guys without size, fine or you can get the unskilled grinder type... but we need some size and skill in the top 6, not just size on the bottom 6.

The reason LA won is not because they have size.... it is because they couple that size with high-end skill. Kopitar, Jeff Carter, these guys are big and they put up points.

This idea that its either size or its skill and you can't find a guy who has the potential to have both at 25th overall is just stupid.

If McCarron would have had 1st round worthy high end skill he would have been a top 5 or even top 3 pick in 2013. Remember, we had the 25th overall pick in a so so draft.
As for the other guys you mentioned, I liked Erne but I heard rumours he didn't want to play in Canada and the other 2 aren't exactly sure fire shots to make the NHL, let alone in a top 6 role, or at least I don't think so. Zykov in particular I think was the 7th ranked NA prospect overall in the draft, and he fell like a stone. Plus we could have had him with our first pick in the second round, so its obvious Timmins and Bergevin didn't want him. Personally, I'm not crazy about drafting Russians in general, although I certainly believe Scherbak was a good pick for us where we took him (I know that probably doesn't make sense). There's also always the possibility that the habs brass thought someone else was hot for McCarron and would have scooped him up before they got to pick again, who knows.

I don't really blame you and others at all for not liking the McCarron pick, I remember when watching the draft on TSN when they did their rankings out of 5 for all the players chosen for skating, puckhandling, compete level, hockey sense, and shooting and while everyone else who went before him had 4's, 5's, and a few 3's McCarron was all 3's with a 2 and a 1 I believe. All I could do was shake my head but Timmins liked him and the guy had size and a lot of what I read about him afterwards said he had good hands, was very raw in potential, and most importantly played a style that made the opposition uncomfortable. I think those who have pointed out that guys who are pure skill without much else to offer pidgeon hole themselves into a situation where for them to make it its either top 6 or bust. As for the size AND skill argument, let me tell you bud everybody wants that kind of a player. They are hard to get. Hell even big goalies are the norm now.

Anyway, I hope this better allows you to wrap your head around my thinking about this whole thing. Cheers...

 

[budman89]

Agree, but Habs knew some dumb GM, would look at sheet and see 6'5" 230lb winger and start drooling and with numerous early picks, Timmins/Bergevin said screw it take the goon and just hope he becomes his idol.

Do you really believe thats the way Timmins and the rest of the scouting staff operates??

 

[budman89]

Because you invented that threshold with no understanding for predictive statistics. I think I am going to do my own data analysis just to shut you up (no offence). Will you put it up on your blog?

Btw, McCarron played in the U17 and the U18 championships which I suppose would put him in the what... top 200 most talented hockey players in the world? Is that a fair evaluation? It's not like he's a scrub who is learning how to play. The difference between scoring 20-30 points in juniors is not so big and can be explained by other factors that are not directly related to the players' hockey skills.

For what its worth I heard he played mostly in a 3rd and 4th line capacity - not exactly a role that will help a player pad the old stats...

 

[BKerr]

If McCarron would have had 1st round worthy high end skill he would have been a top 5 or even top 3 pick in 2013. Remember, we had the 25th overall pick in a so so draft.
As for the other guys you mentioned, I liked Erne but I heard rumours he didn't want to play in Canada and the other 2 aren't exactly sure fire shots to make the NHL, let alone in a top 6 role, or at least I don't think so. Zykov in particular I think was the 7th ranked NA prospect overall in the draft, and he fell like a stone. Plus we could have had him with our first pick in the second round, so its obvious Timmins and Bergevin didn't want him. Personally, I'm not crazy about drafting Russians in general, although I certainly believe Scherbak was a good pick for us where we took him (I know that probably doesn't make sense). There's also always the possibility that the habs brass thought someone else was hot for McCarron and would have scooped him up before they got to pick again, who knows.

I don't really blame you and others at all for not liking the McCarron pick, I remember when watching the draft on TSN when they did their rankings out of 5 for all the players chosen for skating, puckhandling, compete level, hockey sense, and shooting and while everyone else who went before him had 4's, 5's, and a few 3's McCarron was all 3's with a 2 and a 1 I believe. All I could do was shake my head but Timmins liked him and the guy had size and a lot of what I read about him afterwards said he had good hands, was very raw in potential, and most importantly played a style that made the opposition uncomfortable. I think those who have pointed out that guys who are pure skill without much else to offer pidgeon hole themselves into a situation where for them to make it its either top 6 or bust. As for the size AND skill argument, let me tell you bud everybody wants that kind of a player. They are hard to get. Hell even big goalies are the norm now.

Anyway, I hope this better allows you to wrap your head around my thinking about this whole thing. Cheers...

At 25 nothing is sure fire. You are right.

But at 25 I believe that the numbers show there are still some diamonds in the rough available who could develop into top line guys.

You should swing for the fences and try to get these guys... not take a guy who could develop into a third liner.

Unless we are talking the rarest of the rare.. a future bob gainey (who did score in junior btw) there is no reason to limit yourself to third line upside at this point in the draft.

 

[BKerr]

[/B]

For what its worth I heard he played mostly in a 3rd and 4th line capacity - not exactly a role that will help a player pad the old stats...

He started the year on londons top line. Didnt produce and was shuffled down. He didnt get many minutes in the top 6.

What dows that say about him though? If he cant play ahead of the first and second line players and is continually passed over for those spots when injuries hit... and was even put in the fourth line for a time. What does it say about him? Why is he suddenly going to be better than the 7 or 8 forwards hunter preferred to him later when hes in the nhl.

And why cant he dominate on that third line. Given his size and the fact many jumior teams have 16-17 year old kids on their third pairing defence why isnt he crushing them and dominating them strength wise and just being that unstoppable force?

Being on the third/fourth line is not an excuse for his production. Its a condemnation of why he didnt force thw issue and earn a bigger role by dominating weak competition.

 

[budman89]

]He started the year on londons top line. Didnt produce and was shuffled down. He didnt get many minutes in the top 6.[/B]What dows that say about him though? If he cant play ahead of the first and second line players and is continually passed over for those spots when injuries hit... and was even put in the fourth line for a time. What does it say about him? Why is he suddenly going to be better than the 7 or 8 forwards hunter preferred to him later when hes in the nhl.

And why cant he dominate on that third line. Given his size and the fact many jumior teams have 16-17 year old kids on their third pairing defence why isnt he crushing them and dominating them strength wise and just being that unstoppable force?

Being on the third/fourth line is not an excuse for his production. Its a condemnation of why he didnt force thw issue and earn a bigger role by dominating weak competition.

Maybe he just didn't have chemistry with those guys, perhaps he had trouble adjusting to the pace of the game there, it could be any of a number of things. I also heard the Knights were a stacked team in the top 6 so it could be there just wasn't much room for a new comer to break in there and he just wanted to see how he would look on line 1 and had no plans to keep him there unless he was that good he could bump someone else out of a top 6 role. As for being able to dominate playing in a third line capacity, I think that is pretty self explanatory (eg: a teams third/fourth line won't dominate too many games).

You're very right, there are a lot of questions for him to answer and this year will be of immense importance for him in his develpment. To be perfectly honest with you Ben, I have only seen the guy play in bits and pieces, so admittadly I am going by conjecture and hearsay in my assessment of the guy...

 

[habsss]

Maybe none of them makes it as a top 6 forward.

But you've already said the chances of McCarron even making the NHL, the odds are against him.

I'd rather have Zykov, or Dickinson, or Erne where yes, they are likely run of the mill top six guys, but have those long odds to be elite players, than a guy who has long odds to even be a Monster third liner.

If Dickinson, Erne and Zykov develop into run of the mill top six guys, I don't really care for them very much. Yes, it's great to have depth but there are more players looking for jobs than there are available positions. You can only play one at his position and the marginal improvement from one player to another is minimal.

Only way I would care for these three prospects is they develop into elite players, and the odds are, as you admit, are very long. The payoff is very valuable but the odds are very small.

Put it another way:
1A) Dickinson et co develop into elite players : very low odds - very high reward
2A) Dickinson et co develop into run of the mill top 6 players : low odds (but acceptable relative to their draft status) - small reward

1B) McCarron develops into an elite player : impossible odds - very high reward
2B) McCarron develops into run of the mill top 6 player : very low odds (lower than players relative to their draft status) - high reward

Put it another way:
Dickinson has the higher chance to develop into run of the mill top 6 player,
BUT
If both McCarron and Dickinson develop into run of the mill top 6 player, I will ALWAYS choose McCarron in my line up ahead of Dickinson because the former has the size like no one else.

Therefore, I am willing to gamble on McCarron.

 

[BKerr]

Earlier we were saying mccarron has third line upside. Now he could be a "run of the mill top 6 player"

To me the odds that dickinson becomes true first liner are long... but they are still better than mccarron making the top 6 at all.

The numbers are there. Milan lucic is the huge exception to the rule who makes top 6 while not being a huge junior scorer and he was still at 68 points in 70 games his post draft year. James neal is the other big exception and he was at 58 in 66.

Those are literally the very bottom end of the group of top 6 nhlers when we talk about junior numbers at McCarron's current age.

They are already exceptions to the rule and far belownthe norm.

Now in mccarron we have a guy who is 34 in 66.

The odds of mccarron being a top 6 player are astronomical at this point. Hed literally be the first guy ever with these kind of junior numbers.

At least with dickonson and zykov and erne... even if they are long shots there is some evidence of success becoming true top line guys. There is no reason to believe mccarron will ever be in the top 180 scoring forwards in the nhl (a true second line guy).


At this point the odds of mccarron being a valuable bottom line player have already become long.

Sure a 6'5 240 lb scorer would be great. But a guy has to actually score in junior. It doesnt just happen.

 

[habsss]

Did you watch the Memorial Cup? Did you watch Guelph and London play? There is not one person who could have watched that tournament, or the OHL playoffs where Guelph beat London in five games, or the OHL season, and believe that McCarron is a better player than Jason Dickinson. You can't do it. Its clear to all that Dickinson is head and shoulders ahead of him as a hockey player... 3 inches be damned. And if McCarron can't dominate against junior aged kids with his size advantage, what is that size gonna mean in the pros when his opponents will have put on the weight, and will be bigger and stronger than the d he is facing on third pairings while playing on London's bottom six.

McCarron can improve as a player. Dickinson can't grow the extra "three" inches (actually, hockeydb has him as 6"1 and 179lbs - good size for NHL but he will NEVER become a heavy weight no matter how hard he tries)

Plenty of guys improve their game over time. We mentioned how he played at international tournaments for U17 and U18. USND pedigree is always good. Outside of the very best players in the program, the difference is not enormous and CAN be overcome. It's not like he's coming out of Junior B.

 

[habsss]

Earlier we were saying mccarron has third line upside. Now he could be a "run of the mill top 6 player"

To me the odds that dickinson becomes true first liner are long... but they are still better than mccarron making the top 6 at all.

The numbers are there. Milan lucic is the huge exception to the rule who makes top 6 while not being a huge junior scorer and he was still at 68 points in 70 games his post draft year. James neal is the other big exception and he was at 58 in 66.

Those are literally the very bottom end of the group of top 6 nhlers when we talk about junior numbers at McCarron's current age.

They are already exceptions to the rule and far belownthe norm.

Now in mccarron we have a guy who is 34 in 66.

The odds of mccarron being a top 6 player are astronomical at this point. Hed literally be the first guy ever with these kind of junior numbers.

At least with dickonson and zykov and erne... even if they are long shots there is some evidence of success becoming true top line guys. There is no reason to believe mccarron will ever be in the top 180 scoring forwards in the nhl (a true second line guy).


At this point the odds of mccarron being a valuable bottom line player have already become long.

Sure a 6'5 240 lb scorer would be great. But a guy has to actually score in junior. It doesnt just happen.

You let McCarron worry about becoming a top 6 guy or top 9 or whatever.

Should he make there--the odds are irrelevant for now--do you agree that he will be a more valuable player than Dickinson et co?

 

[BKerr]

Maybe he just didn't have chemistry with those guys, perhaps he had trouble adjusting to the pace of the game there, it could be any of a number of things. I also heard the Knights were a stacked team in the top 6 so it could be there just wasn't much room for a new comer to break in there and he just wanted to see how he would look on line 1 and had no plans to keep him there unless he was that good he could bump someone else out of a top 6 role. As for being able to dominate playing in a third line capacity, I think that is pretty self explanatory (eg: a teams third/fourth line won't dominate too many games).

You're very right, there are a lot of questions for him to answer and this year will be of immense importance for him in his develpment. To be perfectly honest with you Ben, I have only seen the guy play in bits and pieces, so admittadly I am going by conjecture and hearsay in my assessment of the guy...

They are a junior team... and no matter how stacked they are here are guys who scored more than him.

Chris tierney... 55th overall pick... 2.5x the points.
Ryan Rupert 6th round... more than double the points.
Matt rupert... undrafted.... double the points. 33 goals vs mccarrons 34 points.
Mitch marner... a 16 year old.
Brety welychka.... undrafted. 56points
Josh anderson... 6'3 4th round pick.. 51 points
Gemel Smith.... 4th round pick... 27 points in 29 games for London... 75 points on the full season (Owen Sound + London).

Include domi and horvat and 9 forwards and 1 dman on london who were better offensive options than McCarron. NINE FORWARDS... thats crazy.

Oh and you've got Christian Dvorak, a 17 year old who was only slightly behind McCarron in terms of PPG.

This is a junior team who will get destroyed by ahl teams.

There are 60 junior teams in the chl... plus the ushl plus the ncaa plus europe.

Gaining a spot in the ahl and nhl isnt going to be easier.

If he cant beat out long shot prospects like rupert... rupert.. welychka and anderson for points and ice time. When he is a fourth line OHL player by points, why is he going to become good enough to play a role in the nhl? Any role?


What junior players who sucked became productive nhlers?

 

[BKerr]

McCarron can improve as a player. Dickinson can't grow the extra "three" inches (actually, hockeydb has him as 6"1 and 179lbs - good size for NHL but he will NEVER become a heavy weight no matter how hard he tries)

Plenty of guys improve their game over time. We mentioned how he played at international tournaments for U17 and U18. USND pedigree is always good. Outside of the very best players in the program, the difference is not enormous and CAN be overcome. It's not like he's coming out of Junior B.

What evidence is there that he can improve? Who are these players who suck in junior and suddenly get good and play big roles in the nhl?

Yeah he played at the ntdp... in one of their weakest years for forwards (he was the only first round forward in the program in his age group. They didnt win gold at the u18 for the only time in 6 years)... and he didnt even play on their top line. He was a third liner on that team too.

 

[BKerr]

You let McCarron worry about becoming a top 6 guy or top 9 or whatever.

Should he make there--the odds are irrelevant for now--do you agree that he will be a more valuable player than Dickinson et co?

Yes all things being equal the bigger guy will be more valuable.

But all things arent equal. McCarron doesnt have the hands... the skating..m the hockey sense dickinson has.

Developping all these when he doesnt show them in junior is just as hard as growing 3 inches.

Again.... there are numerous examples of guys like dickinson becoming 1 st liners. There are 0 examples of guys like mccarron becoming top 6 players (even lucic was scoring nearly twice as much at the same age).

Youve gotta take hockey skill into account. Otherwise lets just draft joel embiid. Hes 18 and 7'1... he might be a long shot cause hes never skated in his life... but you cant teach size

 

[Isaac25]

Ridiculous comparing MM to 4 year OHL guys like the Ruperts...

 

[hockeylover]

Ridiculous comparing MM to 4 year OHL guys like the Ruperts...

If you're in your post draft year in the OHL and you're being outproduced by that many guys, it's not a good sign for your Top 6 potential, IMO. I mean even if you take out the overagers, it still looks pretty atrocious.

But anyways - BKerr isn't going to get anywhere with this argument until his prediction bares out. No one wants to hear it whether it's Biggs for Leaf fans or McCarron for Habs fans. He's probably just wasting his time.

 

[Isaac25]

I don't think there's anyone left on the planet that believes MM has top 6 potential...a big bodied and mean 3rd line guy is where hope lies now and another shitty season he'll be reduced to goon status...

 

[CH1]

I, for one, cannot wait for his rookie card to come out. I will be draining my entire RRSP account to buy as many as I can.

 

[worm]

I, for one, cannot wait for his rookie card to come out. I will be draining my entire RRSP account to buy as many as I can.

No LOC?