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Les Habitants Prospects Thread

One prospect that nobody's talked about since the draft is Brett Lernout. We traded up in the third round to take him, he's a right handed 6'4" 200lbs d-men with rugged play and likes to fight, which should please some here if for no other reason than hurr durr size.

Anyway, he's got 12 points in 24 games. In his three previous seasons combined, he has 24 total points. He's well on his way to destroy that mark. Hasn't been fighting much this season, only two fights.

He'll be headed to the AHL next season in all likelyhood.
 
If he makes it, Brett Lernout will be one of the scariest dudes in the league
 
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Question to junior hockey experts .So assuming OHL>LHJMQ =WHL . Players statics in OHL means more than WHL or LHJMQ?
 
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OHL > WHL > QMJHL, maybe even >> QMJHL.

Stats in the Q mean the least to me because the defensemen and goalies in that league are really just... Let's just say they leave a lot to be desired. Seriously, name me 10 d-men that have made it in the NHL over the last 20 years. There's not a lot and of the ones who made it, there's not a lot of big names. And then there haven't been a lot of goalies making it either. Just look at the highlights from a few pages ago of Daniel Audette's six point night. It's not uncommon to find a few teams just like that when it comes to playing defense.

The OHL to me is the most credible league for stats because there are always really, really good goaltenders and d-men playing there every year and there are more players drafted out of the OHL than anywhere else. If you're playing in the OHL and you're able to score twice on a goalie like John Gibson (back when he was in the OHL), that holds a looooot of water for me. The OHL doesn't have weak years come the draft, they always have strong years. The WHL rarely has weak years, but they don't churn out the cheer amount of players the OHL does. But to the WHL's credit, they develop more d-men (I believe so anyway, this is purely from memory) than anywhere else.

By memory, I believe the OHL has the highest goals / game of the three leagues, followed by the Q and then by the WHL. But stats, while their relevance varying from league to league, always need to be taken into context. An overager putting up gaudy points always means **** all to me because there are always overagers that run the leagues because of their physical maturity and age. It's one of the reasons Connor McDavid, before his injury, putting up the stats he did was heart stopping. He was on pace to have the best season (point wise) in OHL history... At the age of 17. Unreal.
 
GGpX said:
OHL > WHL > QMJHL, maybe even >> QMJHL.

Stats in the Q mean the least to me because the defensemen and goalies in that league are really just... Let's just say they leave a lot to be desired. Seriously, name me 10 d-men that have made it in the NHL over the last 20 years. There's not a lot and of the ones who made it, there's not a lot of big names. And then there haven't been a lot of goalies making it either. Just look at the highlights from a few pages ago of Daniel Audette's six point night. It's not uncommon to find a few teams just like that when it comes to playing defense.

The OHL to me is the most credible league for stats because there are always really, really good goaltenders and d-men playing there every year and there are more players drafted out of the OHL than anywhere else. If you're playing in the OHL and you're able to score twice on a goalie like John Gibson (back when he was in the OHL), that holds a looooot of water for me. The OHL doesn't have weak years come the draft, they always have strong years. The WHL rarely has weak years, but they don't churn out the cheer amount of players the OHL does. But to the WHL's credit, they develop more d-men (I believe so anyway, this is purely from memory) than anywhere else.

By memory, I believe the OHL has the highest goals / game of the three leagues, followed by the Q and then by the WHL. But stats, while their relevance varying from league to league, always need to be taken into context. An overager putting up gaudy points always means **** all to me because there are always overagers that run the leagues because of their physical maturity and age. It's one of the reasons Connor McDavid, before his injury, putting up the stats he did was heart stopping. He was on pace to have the best season (point wise) in OHL history... At the age of 17. Unreal.
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Thank you GG !

I believe OHL developed more players to NHL than any other league ?!
 
Yup. Best development league in the world for NHL players.

I don't remember what the last year was where the OHL didn't get the most players drafted.
 
Sure, but he got drafted in the WHL. And before the CHL Import Draft, he wasn't a known prospect at all. I mean, he was such an unknown player that before the SuperSeries, he had never played a single international game for Russia and most scouts had never even heard of him before his arrival in Saskatoon. A lot of the top prospects in the CHL, at least the Canadian born ones, are scouted from the age of 15 in their Midget AAA seasons.

A lot of European prospects that go to the CHL have sort of handshake agreements that they'll go to a specific team and it's uncommon that other teams will draft a player even when that handshake agreement is in place.

This year, for example, one of the top draft eligible players for the upcoming draft, Pavel Zacha was planning on going to Quebec to play for the Remparts, but Sarnia selected him before Quebec was up and he had to be convinced to join their organization. There were thoughts that he might have stayed in Europe.
 
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Habspatrol said:
I wonder what kind of numbers a guy needs to put up in his second post draft season in order to project as a decent/NHL prospect.

I know the theory on the Leaf board that seems to hold up quite well is 1.2 ppg in their first post draft season. Save for a couple exceptions such as Neal and Lucic.

Maybe it's 1.6 or 1.8 ppg? Or is it that once you miss that 1.2 in your post draft year then you're screwed?
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I know last year when Connor Brown scored 128 points in ~60 games in his 19 year old season, people posted lists of comparable 19 year old seasons to try and figure out whether or not it should be taken with a grain of salt... It's probably in the Prospect Discussion Board thread somewhere.
 
The second post draft season (and even the first) numbers dont project good prospects. They are more about eliminating non-prospects.

There are always corey locke... patrick holland... etc types. Many of them each year who will score a lot in junior but are not really good prospects.

Junior is what it is... if you cant score at 19... youre in trouble. If you are scoring at 19... it doesnt guarantee anything.
 
Yeah, that's what I'm wondering. What is the minimum (of course there will always be exceptions) points per game a forward "needs" in his 2nd post draft year to not be eliminated?

We've sorta concluded that it's 1.2 ppg in your post draft year. I'm sure it's like 1.6 or 1.8.
 
I think with a project like MM, you'll just have to wait to see if he pans out.
 
Habspatrol said:
Yeah, that's what I'm wondering. What is the minimum (of course there will always be exceptions) points per game a forward "needs" in his 2nd post draft year to not be eliminated?

We've sorta concluded that it's 1.2 ppg in your post draft year. I'm sure it's like 1.6 or 1.8.
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Um, well if every nearly every NHL forward of significance hits at least 1.2 in their post draft year, there hasn't really been a lot of need to analyze further than that.
 
CH1 said:
I think with a project like MM, you'll just have to wait to see if he pans out.
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The debate will be as to what he pans out into.

The MM haters will say that he's a bust if he ends up being a third or fourth liner because he was drafted in the 1st round.

Others will be content seeing us with a 6'6 230 lb depth guy who will not be a total tool on the ice....count me in that category.
 
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