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Les Habitants Prospects Thread

DonKay said:
The debate will be as to what he pans out into.

The MM haters will say that he's a bust if he ends up being a third or fourth liner because he was drafted in the 1st round.

Others will be content seeing us with a 6'6 230 lb depth guy who will not be a total tool on the ice....count me in that category.
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Yep.

I've always maintained I'd be thrilled if he could play in a top 9 capacity and contribute on the scoresheet while giving us that big body physical presence we sorely need right now. Anything over and above that would just be gravy. I salivate at the thought of being able to put him in front of the net on the PP. The 3 goals he scored in his last game shows he's got great quick hands, especially the last goal he put in on the rebound, I had to see it in slo mo to actually see that he touched the puck...
 
hockeylover said:
Um, well if every nearly every NHL forward of significance hits at least 1.2 in their post draft year, there hasn't really been a lot of need to analyze further than that.
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I get what you're saying... but I refuse to believe that a bad year at 18 means that you're flat out screwed and can never recover.

As much correlation as we see between NHLers and 1.2 ppg in their post draft year... maybe there's more of a correlation between 2nd post draft year production and NHL success. Or maybe not.
 
Habspatrol said:
I get what you're saying... but I refuse to believe that a bad year at 18 means that you're flat out screwed and can never recover.

As much correlation as we see between NHLers and 1.2 ppg in their post draft year... maybe there's more of a correlation between 2nd post draft year production and NHL success. Or maybe not.
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So if we did this, we'd be looking at OHLers who failed to hit 1.2 ppg in their post draft year but had standout 19 year old seasons? Say 1.5+? And just seeing what they turned out as?
 
Habspatrol said:
I get what you're saying... but I refuse to believe that a bad year at 18 means that you're flat out screwed and can never recover.

As much correlation as we see between NHLers and 1.2 ppg in their post draft year... maybe there's more of a correlation between 2nd post draft year production and NHL success. Or maybe not.[/QUOTE]

What bothers me is that he should have done last year what he's doing now, or atleast approaching it. He essentially burned a year of his career when a player already has a narrow window for development into a bonafide NHLer, even taking into account that McCarron is a 4 year project...
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DonKay said:
Others will be content seeing us with a 6'6 230 lb depth guy who will not be a total tool on the ice....count me in that category.
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I'm with you. I'd like a slightly better, much bigger version of Weise. So a 3rd liner you can stick on the PP to screen the goalie.
 
What was the 1.2PPG metric trying to project? Was it a 30 goal scorer in the NHL?

I'm sure most Hab fans would be ecstatic with a big dude who can score 18-23 goals/yr. Of course, one can argue that's not first round material...but I'll take it.
 
CH1 said:
What was the 1.2PPG metric trying to project? Was it a 30 goal scorer in the NHL?

I'm sure most Hab fans would be ecstatic with a big dude who can score 18-23 goals/yr. Of course, one can argue that's not first round material...but I'll take it.
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Well, initially on the Leaf board it was that any impact player who's reached 30 goals or 60 points in the league has almost without fail hit that mark - a few exceptions but more or less all of them.

Then last year because of the discussion on this board, I looked into every player who was as low as a 30 point guy... and almost all of them had done it as well.

I briefly looked into what HP asked but it would take a long time to do well. I'm only a few years in and there's a lot of players that have cracked 100 points in the OHL at 19 but nearly all of them hit 1.2 ppg at 18 as well. The few ones I've found so far that didn't were pretty close to 1.2 ppg at 18 but none of them really stuck in the NHL. Maybe there's a better site that will help me out with this otherwise it's been painstaking to go through them.
 
hockeylover said:
Well, initially on the Leaf board it was that any impact player who's reached 30 goals or 60 points in the league has almost without fail hit that mark - a few exceptions but more or less all of them.

Then last year because of the discussion on this board, I looked into every player who was as low as a 30 point guy... and almost all of them had done it as well.

I briefly looked into what HP asked but it would take a long time to do well. I'm only a few years in and there's a lot of players that have cracked 100 points in the OHL at 19 but nearly all of them hit 1.2 ppg at 18 as well. The few ones I've found so far that didn't were pretty close to 1.2 ppg at 18 but none of them really stuck in the NHL. Maybe there's a better site that will help me out with this otherwise it's been painstaking to go through them.
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Thanks for the response. As you know there is a giant chasm between 30 and 60 points, so I wanted to make sure the analysis wasn't aiming too high. I guess the bottom line is even the crappiest NHLer was very productive as a junior.
 
CH1 said:
Thanks for the response. As you know there is a giant chasm between 30 and 60 points, so I wanted to make sure the analysis wasn't aiming too high. I guess the bottom line is even the crappiest NHLer was very productive as a junior.
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There is a good reason for that.

The NHL game is sooooooo fast. You have to have quick thinking and quick hands to make even the simplest of plays in the NHL. To control the puck for a few seconds.. to make a "safe pass" ... to chip the puck off the glass.... a minimum skating speed and agillity required to keep up with the play and not fall behind, not get burned to the outside every time.... a minimum of vision and awareness to be in the right spot and play your position.... there is a minimum skill level required to do these things even for fourth liners. Thats why the Goons who could only fight and can't play, are really exposed when they get more ice time.

That minimum level of skill, when you play at lower levels, and arent playing NHL competition, it reveals itself in scoring points.

You also have the fact that there are ~60 CHL teams, plus the US NTDP, plust the USHL, USHS, NCAA, plus Europe, plus the odd Junior A players who get drafted.... thats a lot of different development routes to the NHL. Plus the max career for a CHLer is 5 years, and for most who are drafted and legit NHL prospects the max junior career is 4 years before they go to the AHL.

Thats a funnel of a huge number of teams.... getting split down to just 30 NHL teams.... whose players also have longer careers.

So if you are on the third line of your own junior team. Why are NHL teams taking you over the guys on the first two lines? Especially since we see it in international competition all the time... plenty of good NHL scorers become good 3rd/4th liners for Team Canada playing grinding roles in the Olympics... good hockey players adapt. Same thing happens in junior. The 1st line OHL player, if he can't make an NHL top 6 will adapt his skills, be better defensively and learn to be a 3rd or 4th liner, while the 3rd or 4th line OHL player will be surpassed for the same NHL job, by the kid who was a better player than him in the OHL.
 
Many of these so called better skilled scorers flop in the NHL because they cant adapt to a bottom 6 role . Bottom 6 guys are energy players, bangers , penalty killers etc...

Dudes like Corey Locke and countless other elite scorers have no role on the bottom 6 cause they arent built for it even tons of bigger players have flopped . This is where MM I think will succeed . Even if he doesnt have your ppg threshold , you cant teach size , hands ,and the ability to grind down low at that size. If utilized properly why cant he just plant his ass on a pp and do what Tim Kerr did scoring garbage goals .

He brings a skill set this team never had and needs badly , thats why stats are important but some players will succeed without your parameters.
 
First and foremost you must possess NHL calibre skating...from the first line down to the fourth. Energy players on the third and fourth lines are good skaters with average scoring skills. Locke couldn't skate. Luke Adam cant stick in the NHL because he doesnt skate well...

Heck even a year or two ago posters were debating Ryan White's value on the 4th line. There is no debate, he should never be back in the NHL, his skating is awful.
 
GEEMAN said:
Many of these so called better skilled scorers flop in the NHL because they cant adapt to a bottom 6 role . Bottom 6 guys are energy players, bangers , penalty killers etc...

Dudes like Corey Locke and countless other elite scorers have no role on the bottom 6 cause they arent built for it even tons of bigger players have flopped . This is where MM I think will succeed . Even if he doesnt have your ppg threshold , you cant teach size , hands ,and the ability to grind down low at that size. If utilized properly why cant he just plant his ass on a pp and do what Tim Kerr did scoring garbage goals .

He brings a skill set this team never had and needs badly , thats why stats are important but some players will succeed without your parameters.
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So true. This league is littered with players who lit it up in juniors and just couldn't find a niche for themselves in the NHL for one reason or the other...
 
Gotta love the argument that revolves around "if great junior players can fail in the NHL, it must mean that bad junior players can find their groove in the NHL"
 
Exactly... just because the Corey Lockes of juniors can fail doesn't mean that shitty junior players can succeed. The reverse is just not true at any great rate.

The number of guys who are 3rd liners in the CHL at the age of 19 and go on to make the NHL is miniscule. Consider that there are 180 third liners in the CHL in any given year, and that the average would be that maybe 1 every 5 years or so goes on to become a productive NHL player (at least 100 NHL games played). We are talking about approximately 0.1% of guys.

If you are a third liner at age 19.... chances are you aren't making the NHL ahead of guys who are playing on the top 2 lines.
 
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Reway continues to do fine in Czech/CHL games, is productive and 20:03 of icetime in last game, got to be a good sign.
 
QMJHL vs. Russia in the Super Series tonight.

Fucale gets the start... Audette will be on a line with Laurent Dauphin & Anthony DeLuca.
 
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