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OT: The Official Toronto Raptors Thread

What's the downside of the overpay, that he breaks midway through the contract or that we don't have enough money to spend elsewhere?

Because it feels like we may not have the luxury of spending through the nose on some truly elite player and are saving the money for what exactly then? It's not like free agent stars line up to play for the Raps.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
What's the downside of the overpay, that he breaks midway through the contract or that we don't have enough money to spend elsewhere?
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Both.

1) Not necessarily that he breaks, but that he just won't be worth the contract for various reasons. OG is a top 10 defender in the NBA, but only really an average offensive player. Even in this "OMG DPOY!!!" season he's had with us and the Knicks, he grades out as the 36th most valuable player in the NBA according to EPM (similar according to BPM as well). I'd be mildly surprised if his next contract didn't end up starting at ~37 million and scaling from there (ending up at 46-47 million in it's 4th year). That's top 20 money for a guy who tops out at his absolute best as a top 35-40 type player. We've seen less interested, less engaged versions of OG sit around 1.5 EPM, which is a top ~70 player in the league. I don't think you should be paying big money to a guy who doesn't score the ball at a high level that kind of money unless you have your batman & robin bucket getters and the last thing you need is that elite defensive stopper. OG wouldn't be our last piece.

2) The Raptors have never been a high spending team. We've flirted with the luxury tax during the title season, but we generally sit with the big pile of clubs that are over the cap but under the luxury tax thresholds. The NBA is taking steps to contain the highest spending big markets to create a bit more parity, so the Clippers and Warriors actually have to make difficult decisions and can't just throw money at all of their problems. I just don't think OG is a valuable enough player to warrant 1/4 of our cap space with where we are as a team. Like I said, he's not the missing piece here regardless of how nice it would be to have a top defensive wing again. On our contender teams, his role was smaller than it became in the FredScal era. Now that he's left and gone to another good team, his role got reduced again (stand in the corner and shoot). So could we fit OG in? Yeah. But then that's it. Pay Scottie, IQ, Star J, OG and then scraps for the rotation. If I thought that was a title winning combination, I'd be in. It's not imo.

Because it feels like we may not have the luxury of spending through the nose on some truly elite player and are saving the money for what exactly then? It's not like free agent stars line up to play for the Raps.
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Because 35-45 million can be spent way, way better around those 3 than on OG. If you can't get a bucket when we need it, you're not worth max money. It's really that simple. I'd rather part out what OG does well on multiple good role players than sink all of that money in one really good role player.
 
wiseguy1 said:
playoffs? you kidding me?
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Only a few games out of the play ins, which isn't really the playoffs, but win a few games there and you get the honor of being face fucked by the #1 seed and given what this organization has gone through this season, that would be pretty okay. Shit, sneak a win or even two against Boston and that would be our NBA finals.
 
MindzEye said:
Both.

1) Not necessarily that he breaks, but that he just won't be worth the contract for various reasons. OG is a top 10 defender in the NBA, but only really an average offensive player. Even in this "OMG DPOY!!!" season he's had with us and the Knicks, he grades out as the 36th most valuable player in the NBA according to EPM (similar according to BPM as well). I'd be mildly surprised if his next contract didn't end up starting at ~37 million and scaling from there (ending up at 46-47 million in it's 4th year). That's top 20 money for a guy who tops out at his absolute best as a top 35-40 type player. We've seen less interested, less engaged versions of OG sit around 1.5 EPM, which is a top ~70 player in the league. I don't think you should be paying big money to a guy who doesn't score the ball at a high level that kind of money unless you have your batman & robin bucket getters and the last thing you need is that elite defensive stopper. OG wouldn't be our last piece.

2) The Raptors have never been a high spending team. We've flirted with the luxury tax during the title season, but we generally sit with the big pile of clubs that are over the cap but under the luxury tax thresholds. The NBA is taking steps to contain the highest spending big markets to create a bit more parity, so the Clippers and Warriors actually have to make difficult decisions and can't just throw money at all of their problems. I just don't think OG is a valuable enough player to warrant 1/4 of our cap space with where we are as a team. Like I said, he's not the missing piece here regardless of how nice it would be to have a top defensive wing again. On our contender teams, his role was smaller than it became in the FredScal era. Now that he's left and gone to another good team, his role got reduced again (stand in the corner and shoot). So could we fit OG in? Yeah. But then that's it. Pay Scottie, IQ, Star J, OG and then scraps for the rotation. If I thought that was a title winning combination, I'd be in. It's not imo.



Because 35-45 million can be spent way, way better around those 3 than on OG. If you can't get a bucket when we need it, you're not worth max money. It's really that simple. I'd rather part out what OG does well on multiple good role players than sink all of that money in one really good role player.
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Good post, but it'd be nice to know what better squad we could put together with that money if not going back to the OG well. Maybe scraps on the rest of the squad, while relying on some good picks we've got coming up, gives us all the depth we need to be dangerous with those four. If it's go with the big 3 and then have some decent-ish players rounding out the roster, that'll be some boring and overall pointless bball ultimately. Sometimes if there's nothing better out there to spend on, you go with the best you can get. Quality over quantity, and basically run a top heavy group like the Leafs out there, but here you don't need too many more players after them.

Also, OG kinda feels Hyman-ish to me, where he could get better offensively and justify the big contract and provide more than what we thought we were getting.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
Good post, but it'd be nice to know what better squad we could put together with that money if not going back to the OG well. Maybe scraps on the rest of the squad, while relying on some good picks we've got coming up, gives us all the depth we need to be dangerous with those four. If it's go with the big 3 and then have some decent-ish players rounding out the roster, that'll be some boring and overall pointless bball ultimately. Sometimes if there's nothing better out there to spend on, you go with the best you can get. Quality over quantity, and basically run a top heavy group like the Leafs out there, but here you don't need too many more players after them.

Also, OG kinda feels Hyman-ish to me, where he could get better offensively and justify the big contract and provide more than what we thought we were getting.
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Nah
 
It’s nice have 2 complementary bigs in Poeltl and Olynyk. Before the Utah deal was made we’d have lost that game when Poeltl goes down.
 
MindzEye said:
Nah, OG at 35-40 isn't as bad as Pascal at 45-50 but it's close. At his absolute best OG is pure terrorism on the defensive end. Switchable, smart, physical, just a beast. But his head goes missing for long stretches, and he's always been a bit injury prone. Kind of the ultimate 3&D role player but he's going to be paid like a perennial all star type player. He's a top 3 wing defender at his best, and as nice as that would be, I'd rather go get just a nicely above average wing defender for the bench who shoots league average or better from the corner 3 for ~15 million and call it a day. Get 85% of the value for 40% of the money. Herb Jones, Dean Wade, De'Anthony Melton, Isaac Okoro, Dort, Grimes, Williams, O'neale.....all sorts of those guys out there. It's nice having the best one of those guys in the league, but I don't think his next contract ages well tbh.
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Yus , plus he is made of glass
 
zeke said:

View: https://x.com/C2_Cooper/status/1762530607228158294?s=20
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Good game plan when there's either no rim protection on the court (a bunch of those clips are either Jalen Smith or Pascal as the rim defender there...) or you're able to draw it outside with a big who can pass (both or ours can, Kelly better than Jake but Jake is still an above average passer for a big)

Also fits our personnel well. Brown is a fantastic cutter. RJ, Scottie and Klady all move well off ball as well. Gary can lull you into a false sense of security that you're defending a lazy floor spacer as well.
 
I dunno if there stats on it, but my eye says RJ is really really good off the ball. Very crafty as Jack Armstrong would say.
 
MindzEye said:
Good game plan when there's either no rim protection on the court (a bunch of those clips are either Jalen Smith or Pascal as the rim defender there...) or you're able to draw it outside with a big who can pass (both or ours can, Kelly better than Jake but Jake is still an above average passer for a big)

Also fits our personnel well. Brown is a fantastic cutter. RJ, Scottie and Klady all move well off ball as well. Gary can lull you into a false sense of security that you're defending a lazy floor spacer as well.
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sounds like some good coaching eh.
 
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