Also quick nerd stat update, with only this season's EPM/BPM
Scottie: 1.5/ 5.1
Ingram: 0.1/-0.5
IQ: 2.0/1.8
RJ: 1.4/0.8
Jake: 1.7/1.5
Mamu: 2.3/2.9
Shead: 0.7/-0.1
Battle: 0.2/3.3
Dick: -1.2/-2.3
Jakobe: -1.7/-0.7
CMB: -1.9/-1.7
Ochai: -5.1/-7.7
The good:
- The eternal disagreement between the two metrics on Scottie continues, but at a higher level. Pure eye test here and I'm sure a bit of bias, but I think BPM is closer to reality here. EPM has Scottie as a -0.2, 44th percentile defender while BPM has him as a top 10 defender in basketball. Only one of those is right and I don't think this is a cut it down the middle issue. Scottie sure seems to impact the game like an elite defender and between he and Jake have dragged a starting lineup with 2.5 mediocre or worse defenders to really solid team metrics.
- RJ might just be good, and IQ is quite good. Neither great, but legit good. EPM has RJ at +2.0 offensive EPM, which is a 91st percentile offensive player. Given how shit we've looked offensively since RJ got hurt, this mostly tracks.
- Jake is Jake, he's fine and boring and good. Will eventually need an upgrade, but that's an "over the top" problem for when we've upgraded in other places
- Mamu and Shead are carrying the bench, but they need help. Maybe giving Battle some actual minutes in that bum fight at SG might help? This is the deadline move though. Help at SG if no one wins the bum fight convincingly.
The meh
- The rest of the bench has, on a good note, been NBA calibre (anything -2.0 and higher is considered legitimate NBA bench contributions), so they're not killing us at least other than Ochai, who is currently playing his way out of the NBA if he doesn't figure his shit out. Last year's Ochai would actually win this SG bum fight by a lot. Not really high on Gradey or Jakobe at the moment. Both are young and have some NBA level skills, which is good but I just see big limitations whenever I watch either of them.
Gradey can't shoot well enough to overcome that being his only real carrying tool at the NBA level. He's not really good enough at anything else to justify minutes if he's not shooting better than he has. He can get to the rim off of a bad close out (which have stopped because he can't shoot) or a cut but not off of his own dribble. Doesn't rebound or move the ball well, and while the effort and possession of a functioning clue on D has improved, it's not good or even average either, just not league worst anymore.
Jakobe seems to be developing as a decent spot up shooter and is actually a pretty solid point of attack defender. He's done some really nice work against lead guards over the last few weeks when he's been out there. But he's small and very light, so whenever he ends up guarding "his" position, he's getting pushed around badly. Bridges is a physical guy and a tough check for anyone, but Bridges treated him like a fucking child on the offensive glass during a handful of possessions late in the 4th last night. Gotta be able to D 1 through 3 at least if you're a SG.
If I had to choose between the two, it's Jakobe, but I think we're developing a 3&D guy here who might have starter level quality in him if he can add some size and strength over the next few years. Gradey I think is the guy we need to sell on before there's no one left in the league intrigued by his size/athleticism/"shooting" combo. If we are committed to developing him though, they need to tear down and rebuild his shot. Letting him keep that weird release has turned out to be a mistake. He needed a rookie season in the G league rebuilding his shot instead of getting minutes to be bad here.
- I'm going to leave Ingram as an incomplete. Neither metric really likes or hates him. My early vibe is that he does something we need badly (late clock shots, taking/making their own shot) and that he's okay enough at those things that it makes the whole better than the sum of it's parts. I would be surprised though if we didn't need to upgrade on him as the #1 shot taker/maker before we can make a real jump into being a darkhorse contender.