Analysis
It’s easy to see the appeal of Graves in the modern NBA, given how much he helps you win the possession battle. He gets steals. He rebounds, creates second chances and doesn’t turn the ball over. By the time he’s 25 or so, the odds are good that Graves is going to be a useful rotation player.
But I think he’s entering the draft a couple of years before he’s ready, and the first team that acquires him isn’t likely to get the most out of him. Graves still needs to improve his body and maximize whatever speed and agility he can. He needs to continue to find his offensive game, because I don’t think he’s there yet as a shooter. It’ll require a creative basketball coach to figure out how to use him on that end, given that he operated at times as a hub for Santa Clara and won’t be asked to do that in the NBA.
All the intel reports on Graves are elite, so you want to buy into him long term. But I don’t believe he’s going to be that useful in the NBA within the first few years of his career given the intense athletic adjustment he’ll face and the way he struggled against good competition this year. If someone wants to use a later first-round pick on him, I’d get it. But that’s where the range starts for me, and he received one of my last guaranteed-contract grades of the cycle.