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The Official 2026 Off-Season Thread: Revenge of the Nerds

Afp had him at 8m for 6 years, but this was a tricky, unique one to handicap. Probably would have gotten 9+ for 7 years elsewhere. The 8th year got it below 9.
 
www.nytimes.com

Why Darren Raddysh is this year’s most high-risk, high-reward NHL free agent

It’s hard to think of a more perfectly timed, out-of-nowhere season than the one Darren Raddysh just managed.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

I know many have read it already but this is a good article. Basically, the only prior for this type of player is Montour. But even that isn't a great comp because Montour's puck moving and 5 on 5 offense generation isn't want Raddysh's is. Funnily enough, this part seems to have aged well:

A $12.4 million valuation is too high. The model recognizes the massive leap and assigns a pretty steep penalty, dropping Raddysh’s projected value from plus-11.3 to plus-9.4. Given his per-82 pace of plus-18.8 last year, the model is literally cutting that value in half, expecting Raddysh to fall back to earth in some capacity (as expected from a defenseman who quadrupled his goal output in one season). Even with that, a plus-9.4 defenseman is still very good and Raddysh is expected to maintain a high level in his 30s. Too high, but if you knew you were getting a No. 1 defenseman, $12.4 million is going to become the going rate.

A $4.8 million valuation is too low. New data is the most meaningful and that means shifting priors. Even if Raddysh regresses, it’s difficult to imagine he sinks right back into No. 4 territory after a season that good. All the underlying stuff from last year suggests he has above-average talent with the puck and, even before last season, he was consistently tilting the ice in the right direction for Tampa Bay with a high relative xG rate.

That puts us in the Goldilocks zone right in the middle of $8.6 million, which is roughly in line with what AFP Analytics is projecting at $8 million. At that price, the expectation is a top-pair defender and even if Raddysh drops off heavily from last year’s mark, that feels doable for him.
Click to expand...


Granted, his projection is for a 6 year term. So it would have been lower at 8 years. So yeah.. overpay of ~1m probably, but there's a unique amount of upside that most UFAs simply don't have. And that's the appeal.
 
He's being paid like a high end 2nd pair 2/3 guy which is probably about right, and i thought he would come in over 9.

If he's what h was last year this is a mega steal, much better risk than Anderson

I imagine Carlson ends up in TBay, Rasmus Boston
 
A third of the dcorps already turned over (Andrae for Benoit and Raddysh for Stecher) and I expect there is more to come. Carlo will be gone soon and they'll add at least one more dude IMO, making it a 50% turnover. Which is exactly the bare minimum of what this corps needed. Completely essential. They are going to be a fun team to watch again. Thank you Jesus Christ Almighty.
 
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