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The Official 2026 Off-Season Thread: Revenge of the Nerds

CH1 said:
I have a personal problem with the draft calculator people use for the NHL. Maybe the 25th and 9th = 4th on paper, but I've never see it happen in real life. I very much doubt any team would trade out of the top 5 for the privilege of picking up a dart to throw at 25.

especially with the draft a few days away, and people drooling what stud D-man will be available at #4
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#datadriven

In all seriousness, none of these d are slam dunks. The prospect nerds who follow the draft the most don't really put much separating between pick 3-10. There just happen to be a lot of d on the top of the board and it's a valuable position. But I don't think they're particularly uniquely good at 4 overall. Though I've been less bullish than some others here on this draft.
 
The calculator is based on "real life" transactions, but of course there are not instances of every possible combination.
 
CH1 said:
I have a personal problem with the draft calculator people use for the NHL. Maybe the 25th and 9th = 4th on paper, but I've never see it happen in real life. I very much doubt any team would trade out of the top 5 for the privilege of picking up a dart to throw at 25.

especially with the draft a few days away, and people drooling what stud D-man will be available at #4
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yea its not like the NFL.
You can draft your starting left tackle in the 4th round.... you can draft your starting RB in the 3rd etc
 
Drifting so far from the point.

We don’t need to trade Knies so the price is very high. That’s it, that’s all. It’s dumb to compare it to any of these trade demand guys.
 
Preston said:
#datadriven

In all seriousness, none of these d are slam dunks. The prospect nerds who follow the draft the most don't really put much separating between pick 3-10. There just happen to be a lot of d on the top of the board and it's a valuable position. But I don't think they're particularly uniquely good at 4 overall. Though I've been less bullish than some others here on this draft.
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I mean...yeah...until I see NHL teams start moving up and down the first round (routine practice in the NFL) the calculator has no batteries as far as I'm concerned

and the emotional angle cuts both ways...if you think, and I happen to agree with this, that Knies carries an emotional (vs nerdie) premium, so does having the top 4 pick. 9th is nice but doesn't hit the imagination in the same way
 
CH1 said:
I mean...yeah...until I see NHL teams start moving up and down the first round (routine practice in the NFL) the calculator has no batteries as far as I'm concerned

and the emotional angle cuts both ways...if you think, and I happen to agree with this, that Knies carries an emotional (vs nerdie) premium, so does having the top 4 pick. 9th is nice but doesn't hit the imagination in the same way
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I don't think this is a uniquely knies thing though. You keep implying it's because he wears particular colors on his shirt. Call him Jimmy Smith of the Nashville Predators, I'd have the same opinion. To me, Knies' value is a 4th overall pick roughly. It can be a combination of later picks for all I care, whatever you want. If it adds up to 4th overall value, that's where I feel his value lies.

Whether it happens a lot or not is not part of my argument either. I never even said it was remotely likely to happen. You keep assigning me arguments that I never made.
 
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Preston said:
I don't think this is a uniquely knies thing though. You keep implying it's because he wears particular colors on his shirt. Call him Jimmy Smith of the Nashville Predators, I'd have the same opinion.

Whether it happens a lot or not is not part of my argument either. I never even said it was remotely likely to happen. You keep assignment me arguments that I never made.
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to be clear, the emotional premium I was referring is measured by weight (230lbs) not jersey color
 
CH1 said:
to be clear, the emotional premium I was referring is measured by weight (230lbs) not jersey color
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Fair, and yeah that's part of his value and it's a bit more than 100% emotional imo. Scarcity holds value in all walks of life, and his package of being a big body power forward at 23, locked up long-term, is scarce. You can't say he has Tkachuk value because he still has to do it and Brady was ahead at his age, but his career is progressing not too dissimilar to Brady's so far. Which also has value.

Call it a 4th overall pick, call it a 25th and 9th, I don't really care what feels nicer to you. That's the value I assign to the player.
 
Preston said:
Fair, and yeah that's part of his value and it's a bit more than 100% emotional imo. Scarcity holds value in all walks of life, and his package of being a big body power forward at 23, locked up long-term, is scarce. You can't say he has Tkachuk value because he still has to do it and Brady was ahead at his age, but his career is progressing not too dissimilar to Brady's so far. Which also has value.

Call it a 4th overall pick, call it a 25th and 9th, I don't really care what feels nicer to you. That's the value I assign to the player.
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since we both agree that it's not remotely likely to happen (your words)... I am happy to table this discussion as closed
 
CH1 said:
but if you repeat fantasies long enough, that's how religions start
#staystrong
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It's an internet message board where we discuss things! 99.5% of trades discussed on here over the years have never happened but it doesn't stop us because it's fun!
 
Preston said:
It's an internet message board where we discuss things! 99.5% of trades discussed on here over the years have never happened but it doesn't stop us because it's fun!
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a lot of the stuff you say makes sense, tho.

maybe it was an accident and I mistook random ideas for insights
 
CH1 said:
a lot of the stuff you say makes sense, tho.

maybe it was an accident and I mistook random ideas for insights
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Knies is being discussed in trades by the GM of the Toronto Maple Leafs. The gm himself basically confirmed this. He also confirmed that it's unlikely to make sense to trade him. We are discussing what it would take for it to make sense to trade Knies, whether it's likely to happen or not. We know that trade discussions are ongoing so it's an interesting point of discussion for us.
 
i miss the regular season version of this board

i'll let myself out

maybe try to find where Zeke is camping out these days

#touchgrass
 
I understand that you are above off-season trade discussion, but I do not understand the need to be condescending about it.
 
It's the Jonas effect. When you feel free to just call people fucking stupid because you might be too dumb to know anything about anything, it gives others license to get similarly rude and offensive about things when they shouldn't.
 
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