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The Official 2026 Off-Season Thread: Revenge of the Nerds

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Would have been an elite nerd move if they acquired the player when Tampa did. Now... Not as much, though they didn't trade much to acquire the player, so the cost represents the downtrend. Leafs are betting on last year being fake and that he's still a lower end (2 years ago) to mid-tier (3 years ago) 3rd liner. Tampa is betting on the trend being a real thing. Probably need 1 more year to know for sure. We'll find out! I don't hate this bet, even if I think the odds that it works out are below 50%. At least they're actually betting on some upside for once with a forward.
 
Preston said:
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Would have been an elite nerd move if they acquired the player when Tampa did. Now... Not as much, though they didn't trade much to acquire the player, so the cost represents the downtrend. Leafs are betting on last year being fake and that he's still a lower end (2 years ago) to mid-tier (3 years ago) 3rd liner. Tampa is betting on the trend being a real thing. Probably need 1 more year to know for sure. We'll find out! I don't hate this bet, even if I think the odds that it works out are below 50%. At least they're actually betting on some upside for once with a forward.
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We didn’t trade much is something that remains to be seen. Did we really just give them a young cheap goalie who can put up a .914 on a terrible team, or was that the fluke year? TB gets to dump a guy they think is toast while getting the real upside play in the deal.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
We didn’t trade much is something that remains to be seen. Did we really just give them a young cheap goalie who can put up a .914 on a terrible team, or was that the fluke year? TB gets to dump a guy they think is toast while getting the real upside play in the deal.
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I know this may surprise many, but I don't put much value in goalies. Unless he turns into Hellybucyk (not a very likely scenario), Hildeby's are likely gonna be a dime a dozen and easy to find for cheap. I'd rather have a legit 3c any fucking day, if that's what Paul turns back into after his iffy seasons.

The biggest loss on Hildeby is definitely cap related tho. 2 more years at that aav is unreal assuming he's a capable tandem goalie. Replacing that with a bloated bob contract is alarmingly risky for sure.
 
Preston said:
I know this may surprise many, but I don't put much value in goalies. Unless he turns into Hellybucyk (not a very likely scenario), Hildeby's are likely gonna be a dime a dozen and easy to find for cheap. I'd rather have a legit 3c any fucking day, if that's what Paul turns back into after his iffy seasons.

The biggest loss on Hildeby is definitely cap related tho. 2 more years at that aav is unreal assuming he's a capable tandem goalie. Replacing that with a bloated bob contract is alarmingly risky for sure.
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I’m not a goalie guy either - but that’s when it comes to spending big on one. They’re too unpredictable, assholes you might say. If I have a cheap one that can do the job, I want to keep that guy and use $6m of savings for other stuff - Petterson? I feel like Hildeby will actually be good, sadly. And I think he is in the perfect place to excel because you don’t have to actually be great to be great in TB.

I keep dwelling on the stupidity of that Carlo deal. Not only the 1st, but Minten ends up being a huge loss. Whether that too was a fluke year or he isn’t actually as ineffectual as he was in the playoffs remains to be seen. But I sure would like the team more with Minten as 3C, Hildy as backup, and the picks we traded for Minty and Paul restored.

The other point here is that they have Arty ahead of Hildy and figured they want him to get the reps when Stolarz goes down, and they were too spooked by the risk of two unproven rookies backing up the glass figurine. Also, Chaykes’ boner for Bob is epic and drove all these decisions anyway, but Hildy was excess if Arty is their guy. I just hope we didn’t Pogge ourselves and give a division rival their Rask.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
I’m not a goalie guy either - but that’s when it comes to spending big on one. They’re too unpredictable, assholes you might say. If I have a cheap one that can do the job, I want to keep that guy and use $6m of savings for other stuff - Petterson? I feel like Hildeby will actually be good, sadly. And I think he is in the perfect place to excel because you don’t have to actually be great to be great in TB.

I keep dwelling on the stupidity of that Carlo deal. Not only the 1st, but Minten ends up being a huge loss. Whether that too was a fluke year or he isn’t actually as ineffectual as he was in the playoffs remains to be seen. But I sure would like the team more with Minten as 3C, Hildy as backup, and the picks we traded for Minty and Paul restored.

The other point here is that they have Arty ahead of Hildy and figured they want him to get the reps when Stolarz goes down, and they were too spooked by the risk of two unproven rookies backing up the glass figurine. Also, Chaykes’ boner for Bob is epic and drove all these decisions anyway, but Hildy was excess if Arty is their guy. I just hope we didn’t Pogge ourselves and give a division rival their Rask.
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The key with the Leafs goalie decisions this year is you don't want it to be a repeat of the Rask vs Pogge decision, where you just make the wrong decision in which goalie to keep. Although frankly, I think I would have tried to keep Woll+Hildeby as the highest potential for a breakout, so it does almost feel like you had the Rask vs Pogge decision again, and decided to trade both of them away.
 
Eh, Rask was the best goalie prospect in the world at the time and we fucked that up hard. Both of these guys are 24 yr olds who might be good NHL goalies, not Uber prospects like Rask (and a lesser degree, Pogge). Even if we got this wrong and gave up the better of the two, Hildy is probably "just" a somewhat above average tandem goalie, not a stud top 5 starter for a generation.
 
MindzEye said:
As stated already though, you can set your watch to this guy producing like an elite 1st liner for 10-15 games and then being a fucking shadow for the rest of the season with your coach wanting to bury or bench him come playoffs. A great example of when data needs context.
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I think that is consistent with a lot of depth scoring options though.
 
leafman101 said:
I think that is consistent with a lot of depth scoring options though.
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I highly doubt that mate. There is a reason Roslovic habitually plays himself down and out of lineups. He dumps the vast majority of his value on you over a few weeks and is basically a 4th liner the rest of the season.
 
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Best i can put together:

- hired as pro scout in 2017
- ran the sabres draft in 2020 - only had 5 picks - #8 W Jack Quinn, #34 W John Peterka, #131 C Matteo Constantini, #193 D Albert Lyckasen, #216 C Jakub Konecny - Quinn and Peterka look like good 2nd liners with some upside above that, Constantini in the AHL might have a chance still, the other two stuck in europe permanently
- Director of Pro Scouting since 2022-23 - i.e. the last 4 seasons, where they seem to have made generally good moves getting them to a pretty good place at the moment.
 
Some key pro gets from outside the org since he took over as director of pro scouting:

C McLeod - has surprisingly turned into a very good two way top-6 center, at the cost of Savoie

W Zucker - $4-5m ufa winger who's scored at a 27gl/60pt pace in his 2yrs there

D Byram - traded Mittelstadt for him - Byram has scored about as much as mittlestadt since the trade, as a dman. Mittelstadt kinda flopped as a C in colorado and is now just a middle six winger for boston. Then traded Byram for the 4th overall pick - was Crowe still in charge for this?

C Norris - traded Cozens for him. This is still an interesting challenge trade that Norris might win in the end as he seems to finally be getting healthier.

W Malenstyn - traded a 2nd for him. not great value imo.

C Jost - meh cheapo depth

D E.Johnson - ok vet depth signing

D Clifton - very meh signing. probably just a bad signing.

D Timmins - solid free cheapo pickup who played real minutes for them in the playoffs

D Schenn + D Stanley - traded a 2nd and some prospects for these two. Terrible move. Hopefully this was GM-based.

G Lyon - very solid cheapo vet tandem goalie pickup
G Reimer - solid cheapo goalie depth
G Ellis - solid waiver wire pickup
G Comrie - poopy vet depth
 
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