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The Official 2026 Off-Season Thread: Revenge of the Nerds

www.nytimes.com

Ranking McKenna vs. recent No. 1 picks, Malhotra’s comparables and second-round breakouts

Now that U18 worlds and the lottery are in the rearview, it's the perfect time for a mailbag about the 2026 NHL Draft.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

Can you rank the last 10 No. 1 picks and Gavin McKenna based on how they were rated pre-draft? — Tyler N.

It probably looks something like this, though Celebrini might have been viewed more in the Dahlin/Hughes tier, and this may be what’s happened since playing tricks on my memory.

1. Connor Bedard
2. Macklin Celebrini
T3. Rasmus Dahlin/Jack Hughes
T5. Gavin McKenna/Alexis Lafrenière
7. Matthew Schaefer
T8. Owen Power/Nico Hischier
10. Juraj Slafkovský
Click to expand...
 
Pwner said:
www.nytimes.com

Ranking McKenna vs. recent No. 1 picks, Malhotra’s comparables and second-round breakouts

Now that U18 worlds and the lottery are in the rearview, it's the perfect time for a mailbag about the 2026 NHL Draft.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
Click to expand...
Could you compare the top five of the last four drafts? — Simon E.

Using the top five picks in the previous three drafts and the top five players on my current list, based on where I was at on them all at the time of the draft:

1. Connor Bedard
2. Macklin Celebrini
—
3. Matthew Schaefer
4. Adam Fantilli
5. Gavin McKenna (2026)
6. Michael Misa
7. Ivan Demidov
8. Leo Carlsson
9. Ivar Stenberg (2026)
10. Will Smith
11. Arty Levshunov
—
12. Chase Reid (2026)
13. Caleb Malhotra (2026)
14. Alberts Smits (2026)
15. Caleb Desnoyers
16. Anton Frondell
Click to expand...
 
Last 10 No.1 by data nerds star probability:
T1. Bedard, Celebrini, McKenna, Hughes - 99%
(Fantilli - 78%)
5. Dahlin - 76%
(Carels -76%)
(Stenberg - 68%)
6. Lafreniere - 65%
7. Schaefer - 58%
8. Power - 25%
9. Hischier -23%
10. Slafkovsky - 8%
 
2007-2016
T1. Matthews, McDavid, Tavares, Kane, - 99%
5. Stamkos -74%
T6. Yakupov/Hall - 63%
T8. MacKinnon, Nugent-Hopkins - 55%
10. Ekblad - 19%
 
Pwner said:
www.nytimes.com

Ranking McKenna vs. recent No. 1 picks, Malhotra’s comparables and second-round breakouts

Now that U18 worlds and the lottery are in the rearview, it's the perfect time for a mailbag about the 2026 NHL Draft.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
Click to expand...

honestly this kinda makes me feel better not worse. Guys like Hughes and Lafreniere were clear overrates imo, and McKenna's numbers are probably more impressive than Bedard's.

Celebrini is one that sticks out as probably clearly better so i'm gonna try that parsing the season thing given the stark improvement for McKenna in the 2nd half.

Celebrini PreWJC: 15gms, 10gls, 25pts (57gl/137pt pace)
Celebrini WJC: 5gms, 4gls, 8pts (66gl/131pt pace)
Celebrini PostWJC: 23gms, 22gls, 39pts (78gl/139pt pace)

McKenna PreWJC: 16gms, 4gls, 18pts (21gl/92pt pace)
McKenna WJC: 7gms, 4gls, 14pts (47gl/164pt pace)
McKenna PostWJC: 19gms, 11gls, 33pts (48gl/142pt pace)

so yeah McKenna really did catch up to Celebrini's production after having that dominant WJC. nice.


as for Bedard, McKenna blows him away if you line up pre-draft year against pre-draft year, though if you age adjust due to McKenna being 6 months older in each year, then the numbers come out looking pretty even (imo the age adjusted points are in mckenna's favor, but bedard has all the goals).

McKenna 16.0: 66gms, 36gls, 103pts (45gl/128pt pace) (D-2)
Bedard 16.5: 62gms, 51gls, 100pts (68gl/132pt pace) (D-1)
McKenna 17.0: 72gms, 50gls, 167pts (57gl/190pt pace) (D-1)
Bedard 17.5: 64gms, 81gls, 163pts (104gl/209pt pace) (D)


as for Jack Hughes, you wonder why he was rated that highly given all the other guys on his team that were rated much lower That last U-18 US national team he played had a whole bunch of teammates in that same draft who weren't far behind him:

2018-19 US U-18:

Turcotte: 16gms, 12gls, 34pts (62gl/174pt pace)
Hughes: 24gms, 12gls, 48pts (41gl/164pt pace)
Boldy: 28gms, 17gls, 43pts (50gl/126pt pace)
Zegras: 27gms, 14gls, 40pts (43gl/122pt pace)
Caufield: 28gms, 29gls, 41pts (85gl/120pt pace)

even had a 2yrs-younger Beniers on that team:

Beniers: 11gms, 6gls, 18pts (45gl/134pt pace)

Sure Hughes was probably the best of them, but that's a crazy team right there, so i don't know that he should have been rated so far ahead of the others. Though tbh that was a pretty terrible draft class outside of this group of teammates. Between Hughes at 1 and Turcott at 5 you had Dach Kakko Byram so the lack of competition that year might have made the Hughes hype a bit higher. Note that unlike McKenna, Hughes was an afterthought at the WJC in his draft year.


as for lafreniere, that's just the allure of the Big French Center, combined with the always inflated QMJHL stats.
 
The AGM and top of the org chart thing is kind of stuck in my head right now:

Pridham - AGM: Our cap guru, has survived a few bosses now, I figure he'll survive this summer and will remain our contract negotiator/salary cap guy. It's kind of quietly been suggested across a bunch of media pieces around the league that he's pro analytics as well for decision making and player valuation.

Derek Clancey - AGM Player Personnel: This is a Treliving hire, gotta figure he's toast

Metcalf - AGM Hockey R&D: Our top nerd, 100% safe. My bet is that he's playing the long game until he's GM here eventually. He's just a bit older than Chayka and life long #Oneofus

Hayley Wickenheiser - AGM Player Dev: So I'm torn here. She's a legend and obvious an impressive human being. But to the best of my ability to find out she's still working as a full ass medical doctor while being a full ass assistant GM of player dev. I feel like the portfolio requires someone who can actually be full time at it and not someone who has 2 actual full time careers

Ryan Hardy - AGM Minor League Ops: I'm not sure why this needs an AGM title. Just name a GM of the AHL & ECHL teams.

Shane Doan - Special Advisor to the GM: Lol, I'm sure there's a lot of shit Doan would love to advise Chayka go and do. He gone.

Dave Morrison - Snr Advisor player personnel: One of the legacy guys I've talked about the need to remove him from the org. He's been here since 2004 and was director of amateur scouting from 2006-2015. Our drafting wasn't all bad over that period but it wasn't excellent by any stretch. The highlight would be some great grabs in the 7th round (Komarov, Johnsson & Gunnar) but the lowlights would be our 1st and 2nd round picks over the period. Tlusty, Kulemin, Schenn, Rielly, Kadri, Gauthier between 2006 and the tank years isn't exactly impressive. We basically only ever got value when we sucked and had a top 10 pick. Nothing at all to sustain the team outside of that. He was moved to Dir of Pro Scouting from 2015-2018 and we some of our worst pro acquisitions were over that period. Dir of Player Personnel from 2018-2023 and kind of the same. He's been a major senior figure in the organization over a period of time that we just weren't good at the things in his portfolio. Move on pls.

Reid Mitchell - Dir Hockey Ops: Another legacy guy. Been in the org for 27 years. Director of Hockey Ops since 2015. Prepare a lovely severance for him, and let's move on.
 
Fantilli's the one that sticks out as a guy with legit elite production who hasn't done it in the NHL. Though to be fair it was only that NCAA year that he was truly elite. The year before in the USHL his 110pt pace was well behind a guy like Celebrini's or Eichel's 140-150pt pace.
 
Alexis Lafreniere is a terrifying comparison. Not a completely awful player I suppose, but definitely brutally disappointing when compared to most first overall picks.
 
zeke said:
Fantilli's the one that sticks out as a guy with legit elite production who hasn't done it in the NHL. Though to be fair it was only that NCAA year that he was truly elite. The year before in the USHL his 110pt pace was well behind a guy like Celebrini's or Eichel's 140-150pt pace.
Click to expand...

That's kind of the thing that stands out to me on Fantilli about the jump in production, is that he went to Michigan where they seal clubbed with a bunch of high NHL draft picks. Fantilli was the top scorer, but also on that team:

- 4th overall Luke Hughes
- 24th overall Samoskevich
- 13th overall Nazar
- 14th overall McGroarty
- 34th overall Brindley
- 46th overall Casey
- 67th overall Portillo
- 91st overall Hallum

Along with a handful of other draft picks in the mid to late rounds.

McKenna played with a few draft picks, but only 1 first rounder (another Freshman, a defender Jackson Smith 14th overall), 1 2nd, and then 5 others who were 5th-7th round picks. Fantilli put up great numbers on a team where they had top 15 picks on the 2nd line.
 
Lafreniere was significantly less productive, even in the always-inflated QJMHL.

Laf is a couple months older in these comps:

D-2

Laf: 67gms, 46gls, 87pts (56gl/107pt pace)
McK: 66gms, 36gls, 103pts (45gl/128pt pace)

D-1

Laf: 74gms, 46gls, 128pts (51gl/142pt pace)
McK: 72gms, 50gls, 167pts (57gl/190pt pace)

D

Laf: 52gms, 35gls, 112pts (55gls/177pt pace)
McK: ---

and again, Q stats are always inflated.

GMs can't resist the allure of a mysterious 6'4 French Centreman tho.
 
LeafGm said:
Alexis Lafreniere is a terrifying comparison. Not a completely awful player I suppose, but definitely brutally disappointing when compared to most first overall picks.
Click to expand...

They're not comparable though, it's terrifying at a glance but only at a glance. The Q just isn't on the same competition level as the OHL or WHL anymore and the numbers there need to be looked at differently and Lafreniere played his entire draft season as an 18 yr old where he was just over 2ppg in the Q.

So the way I'm laying this comp out is a bit kind to McKenna, he's a late december birthday, but I've always preferred a start of season cutoff for ages. Even 2-3 months difference for these early birthdays has been shown to be a significant development advantage when it comes to age adjusting stats:

McKenna:
14: WHL - 1.13ppg
15: WHL - 1.59ppg
16: WHL - 2.30ppg
17: NCAA - 1.46ppg


Lafreniere:
16: QMJHL - 1.33ppg
17: QMJHL - 1.72ppg
18: QMJHL - 2.15ppg

It's really not even fucking close, even if we were accepting the Q as close enough to the W to be directly comparable (it's really just not). Even if we flipped this to give Lafreniere the age adjusted advantage by calling it a Jan 1 cutoff instead of season start like I've done here (Quanthockey, for example uses that) you would still be comparing McKenna's 2.3ppg season in the W to Laf's 1.72 in the Q at 17 and then McKenna's elite season in the much harder NCAA to Laf's 2.15ppg season in the Q which for recent comparison is less than Drouin put up in his 18 yr old season, and the same as recent 3rd round pick Jordan Dumais & 2nd rounder Ryabkin has put up in theirs. A bit better than Ehlers.

The Lafreniere statistical comparables just aren't close to McKenna's.
 
zeke said:
Lafreniere was significantly less productive, even in the always-inflated QJMHL.

Laf is a couple months older in these comps:

D-2

Laf: 67gms, 46gls, 87pts (56gl/107pt pace)
McK: 66gms, 36gls, 103pts (45gl/128pt pace)

D-1

Laf: 74gms, 46gls, 128pts (51gl/142pt pace)
McK: 72gms, 50gls, 167pts (57gl/190pt pace)

D

Laf: 52gms, 35gls, 112pts (55gls/177pt pace)
McK: ---

and again, Q stats are always inflated.

GMs can't resist the allure of a mysterious 6'4 French Centreman tho.
Click to expand...

Yeah, what he said, he gave Laf the advantage though.
 
zeke said:
tbf this seems pretty standard to have the AHL GM listed as AGM.
Click to expand...

I think you've got it inverse though. It's standard to have one of your AGM run the AHL team. Hardy's entire porfolio appears to be the minor league teams. That's something I don't see anywhere else I've looked. Maybe I'm finding distinctions without actual differences but my understanding of Hardy's role is that he doesn't handle anything with the NHL club aside from being a "voice at the table".
 
zeke said:
Fantilli's the one that sticks out as a guy with legit elite production who hasn't done it in the NHL. Though to be fair it was only that NCAA year that he was truly elite. The year before in the USHL his 110pt pace was well behind a guy like Celebrini's or Eichel's 140-150pt pace.
Click to expand...


All those guys with 99% star probability had multiple years of elite production, not one. If a player like McKenna is a top player (historically) in every season at every level it always transfers to the NHL.
 
leafman101 said:
Last 10 No.1 by data nerds star probability:
T1. Bedard, Celebrini, McKenna, Hughes - 99%
(Fantilli - 78%)
5. Dahlin - 76%
(Carels -76%)
(Stenberg - 68%)
6. Lafreniere - 65%
7. Schaefer - 58%
8. Power - 25%
9. Hischier -23%
10. Slafkovsky - 8%
Click to expand...
I don't know what that source is, but it makes me feel good, and hope Chayka/Sundin are looking at it.

It has to be McKenna, but I am on edge until they finally make the pick.
 
I was so doom and gloom about the team and where things were headed, but this lottery win has changed everything.

I can't wait to see McKenna playing with our guys.
 
99% star probabilities ppg at NHL level
Mcdavid - 1.56
Celebrini - 1.17
Matthews - 1.13
Hughes - .99
Tavares - 0.94
Bedard - 0.93


There is a range of eliteness obviously. But even if McKenna is at the bottom, he is basically a guaranteed ppg player.

I don't think he is at the bottom though because his playmaking is basically the equivalent of Matthews scoring.
 
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