Toronto @ Chicago - 7 pm on SN

[MindzEye]

have babcock's leafs overall looked to you like a well organized team, or one getting by on pure talent?

I'd love to see our possession and xGF% numbers for just the first 10 minutes of the game since the beginning of last year.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

You're really mental about this

CF%

Leivo 51.9%
Brown 47.1%

Yeah, Leivo is the one dragging that line down. I don't even think Leivo has been particularly good either, but he makes good plays all over the ice. You see the offensive zone turnovers when the puck is on his stick (because he has the ability to hold the puck in the offensive zone to try to make plays with it) but don't see the skill necessary to simply be in that position to attempt to make a play as often as Leivo is. Connor Brown on the flip side, rarely is able to hold the puck in the offensive zone if it's not on a rush chance. He's a 180 pound chip and chase player. Because he's rarely in the position to try to make a play within offensive zone possession, he never turns the puck over in the offensive zone (because he's chasing it, and rarely possesses it), you don't equate that as a negative. You're wrong, and it's why you don't "get" Leivo as a hockey player. The smart guy with the glasses who is running the show does get it though.

He really, really doesn't. Not that I don't notice a decent play or two here and there from him, like an interesting dipsy doodle against the Hawks where he sort of played keepaway for a second, but on an overall basis, he makes way more bad plays than good. He pretty much always misses the net on his shots, and the puck goes all the way back around and out of our zone. Every time he gets in deep and tries to make a play, it's some behind the back pass like he thinks he's Marner or something and ends up putting it right on the stick of the other team and off they go with him stuck deep and the rest of the team on their heels. He makes a shit ton of mistakes out there, and it's noticeable stuff so I don't understand what the debate is about here. There's nothing to "get" about him - he's just not a good player. You can trust him to be on your fourth line and check and kill a handful of minutes a game while the other guys get some rest, but you can't call on him for much more than that.

Brown hasn't been impressive either so far, but he's been solid his entire time here, so I know he has it in him. He looks a bit slower out there to me, the opposite of Hyman who seems to have gotten faster. But the difference between an ineffective Brown and an ineffective Leivo is that Brown isn't making mistakes. He's still playing his game. Leivo is a hand grenade. He's trying to make plays but just can't, and ends up hurting us. Kadri hasn't been able to do a thing with him on that line. We both know that Leivo gets the boot before Brown, so let's just wait and see Johnsson or someone else replacing Leivo on that line and watch what happens.

Also, serious question, I really don't know what that 4.8% differential's significance is here. They play on the same line, but Brown kills penalties, and Leivo has been given PP time. What is that stat supposed to tell us?

 

[MindzEye]

Also, serious question, I really don't know what that 4.8% differential's significance is here. They play on the same line, but Brown kills penalties, and Leivo has been given PP time. What is that stat supposed to tell us?

4.8% is a pretty massive difference. 5% more shot attempts go in the right direction when Leivo is on the ice during 5 on 5 time, than when Brown is on the ice. If you think about it simply as it takes X amount of shot attemps to equal a goal, and then extrapolate that 5% differential over an entire season, it adds up to a not insignificant amount of goals.

He really, really doesn't. Not that I don't notice a decent play or two here and there from him, like an interesting dipsy doodle against the Hawks where he sort of played keepaway for a second, but on an overall basis, he makes way more bad plays than good. He pretty much always misses the net on his shots, and the puck goes all the way back around and out of our zone. Every time he gets in deep and tries to make a play, it's some behind the back pass like he thinks he's Marner or something and ends up putting it right on the stick of the other team and off they go with him stuck deep and the rest of the team on their heels. He makes a shit ton of mistakes out there, and it's noticeable stuff so I don't understand what the debate is about here. There's nothing to "get" about him - he's just not a good player. You can trust him to be on your fourth line and check and kill a handful of minutes a game while the other guys get some rest, but you can't call on him for much more than that.

Here's the thing though, if what you were noticing had the type of impact you think it did, he would not consistently put up good possession numbers. If he was turnoving over the puck, and needlessly firing shot attempts that was negating puck possession the way you're suggesting, in the volume you're suggesting, he simply wouldn't be a positive possession player like he is.

There is something to get, and you just don't get it. The NHL is a really hard league, and having the puck on your stick as much as Leivo does is a skill. It doesn't end up on his stick as much as it does by accident. The difference between just a good offensive player and a great one is what they do with the puck once they're able to gain controlled possession of it. Nobody is claiming Leivo is a great offensive player, but he absolutely looks like a good one.

Brown gives up possession way too cheaply, and doesn't do a whole lot of good with the puck in the offensive zone once it's there. He can finish chances off the rush and works his tail off (also is a great stick checker on the forecheck) but if you watch him when the puck is on his stick, he tends to not be able to do much of **** all with it other than move it deeper into the offensive zone. The little touch passes that skilled players make are beyond him. The ability to hold the puck under defensive pressure is beyond him.

The numbers aren't lying about either of them.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

4.8% is a pretty massive difference. 5% more shot attempts go in the right direction when Leivo is on the ice during 5 on 5 time, than when Brown is on the ice. If you think about it simply as it takes X amount of shot attemps to equal a goal, and then extrapolate that 5% differential over an entire season, it adds up to a not insignificant amount of goals.

First, it's been three games so far. It's ridiculously premature to put any kind of stock into this. But what I'm not getting is, in these three measly games, they're playing on the same line, so what, is there an extra shot or two being counted when one goes off the ice and the other maybe gets stuck, or what? And do PP and SH count, where Leivo is benefitting from all the shots for and Brown is getting dinged because of all the shots against? Whether it counts or not, it's seems pretty absurd to be using this stat to measure two guys who are on the ice at the same time.

Here's the thing though, if what you were noticing had the type of impact you think it did, he would not consistently put up good possession numbers. If he was turnoving over the puck, and needlessly firing shot attempts that was negating puck possession the way you're suggesting, in the volume you're suggesting, he simply wouldn't be a positive possession player like he is.

There is something to get, and you just don't get it. The NHL is a really hard league, and having the puck on your stick as much as Leivo does is a skill. It doesn't end up on his stick as much as it does by accident. The difference between just a good offensive player and a great one is what they do with the puck once they're able to gain controlled possession of it. Nobody is claiming Leivo is a great offensive player, but he absolutely looks like a good one.

He really doesn't. If all you're basing this on is the 4.8% over the first three games, then it needs to be dismissed. He looks pretty terrible out there. Offensively he has next to nothing. A nice tip attempt yesterday? Sure. But the guy is not anywhere near skilled enough to actually do anything with the puck. The one thing he's always been billed as having is that heavy wrister, which he does, but he misses the net every ****ing time. He's barely even in a position to get the shot off. Kadri is still Kadri, and Brown is doing the dirty work along the boards, so why hasn't Leivo done squat?

Brown gives up possession way too cheaply, and doesn't do a whole lot of good with the puck in the offensive zone once it's there. He can finish chances off the rush and works his tail off (also is a great stick checker on the forecheck) but if you watch him when the puck is on his stick, he tends to not be able to do much of **** all with it other than move it deeper into the offensive zone. The little touch passes that skilled players make are beyond him. The ability to hold the puck under defensive pressure is beyond him.

The numbers aren't lying about either of them.

I agree that Brown's game is less of a playmaking style, and more of a grab the puck and quickly do something with it - shoot, pass it off, drive. He's not going to dipsy doodle around in the zone and try to stickhandle his way through guys. But he plays an effective, simple game. For as much as you're criticizing Brown on this point, Leivo has absolutely not done any better. Does he carry the puck more? Yes. Does he do anything at all positive with it when it ultimately leaves his stick? No.

 

[BeLeafer]

Sparks might suck at the NHL level, but the decision was the opposite of short sighted. The thought process there is pretty simple. You have a 24-25 yr old goalie that has done everything in the organization that you can possibly ask of them. They've played at an elite level in the AHL and won a title. They need to be given a legit shot at the NHL level, especially when 1) the incumbant is a ~35 yr old journeyman 2) Passable backup goalies hit the waiver wire regularly 3) Most good teams have shit backups anyway.

Here's the backups on the best teams in the East:

Pittsburgh: Casey DeSmith - .921 in small sample last season, with a good AHL pedigree but it already 27 yrs old Didn't make it to the AHL until he was 24 yrs old and put up okay numbers as a 1B over 2 season

Tampa: Louis Domingue - .907 in almost 100 career NHL appearances, was meh at the AHL level as well

Washington: Pheonix Copley - put up a .896 in the AHL last season.

Boston: Jaroslav Halak - Raise your hand if you wanted to pay him 2.75 x 2 to come here.....33 yr old midget in an era of shrinking goalie equipment coming off of a .908 season.

It makes a ton of sense to give the reigning AHL goalie of the year a chance to prove himself in the NHL when the alternative was losing him for nothing.

Good post. It shocks me that there are so many here that generally point to the importance of sample size concluding he sucks after a few regular periods in the NHL after his great development over the past several years. Patience, grasshoppers.

 

[Jeremy]

Gotta agree. When was his last NHL start? Give the dude some time.


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