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Quest for the Holy Grail

Here are the top-10 toughest usage dmen in hockey this year, in terms of playing against the other teams' top-minute players (TOIqoc):

TOIqoc

1.Vlasic 30.10
2.Braun 30.05
3.Zaitsev 29.94
4.Hjalmarsson 29.89
5.Keith 29.83
6.Alzner 29.78
7.Weber 29.77
8.Chara 29.74
9.Bouwmeester 29.72
10.Pietrangelo 29.70
(11.Rielly 29.66)

So Zaitsev has received elite of elite tough minutes at even strength....and even making this a "top-10" list is a bit deceiving since the guys at the very top are actually a good chunk ahead of the bottom guys here.


(Rielly was neck and neck with Zaitsev before they were split, and since then his TOIqoc has plummetted while his possesion has improved significantly).

And here's their Score, Zone, and Venue Adjusted possession rates:

CF%

1.Chara 53.95
2.Weber 52.34
3.Rielly 51.70
4.Pietrangelo 51.10
5.Zaitsev 50.94
6.Hjalmarson 50.15
7.Keith 49.91
8.Alzner 49.38
9.Vlasic 49.28
10.Bouwmeester 49.26
11.Braun 48.09

CF Rel

1.Rielly +0.66
2.Pietrangelo +0.49
3.Hjalmarsson -0.15
4.Zaitsev -0.53
5.Weber -0.61
6.Keith -0.63
7.Chara -1.36
8.Bouemweester -2.06
9.Vlasic -3.37
10.Braun -4.41
11.Alzner -5.87

So Zaitsev (and Rielly) come out looking very good compared to similar-usage dmen. But maybe the raw shot attempts are deceiving, and other dmen are better when you adjust for shot quality.

xGF%

1.Chara 54.87
2.Weber 53.95
3.Rielly 51.93
4.Vlasic 51.22
5.Pietrangelo 51.21
6.Braun 50.91
7.Zaitsev 50.89
8.Alzner 49.94
9.Bouwmeester 49.56
10.Hjalmarsson 48.47
11.Keith 46.50

xGF Rel

1.Weber +1.52
2.Chara -0.34
3.Hjalmarsson -0.37
4.Pietrangelo -0.48
5.Braun -0.76
6.Rielly -0.79
7.Vlasic -1.61
8.Zaitsev -2.55
9.Bouwmeester -2.86
10.Keith -3.60
11.Alzner -3.99


So indeed when you factor in shot quality the two Leafs drop down to middle of the pack here, while the guys known as crease clearers - i.e. Weber, Chara, Vlasic, Braun - move right on up the list. This effect is why I've started to trust xGF more and more - it seems to reflect reality pretty well.

So Zaitsev plays elite tough minutes, and handles them about as welll as most of the other guys with similar minutes. And he did this as a rookie. And while chipping in nearly 40 points as well.

Now look at what the other guys on this list get paid.
 
Pretty comprehensive look at the numbers there, zeke. Thanks for that.

Really supports signing him to the rumoured deal.
 
zeke said:
Gardiner went from a -23 to a +25. Does anyone really think that's because he suddenly became awesome defensively?

Chara went from -27 in NY to +30 in OTT, then went from +17 in OTT to -21 with BOS, before flipping back to a heavy plus again.

Karlsson was -30 one year. +16 the next.

it's a really, really stupid stat.
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I have to say though, that Gardiner has really improved significantly this year.

He had a monster game last night, imo. He was elusive as hell in the zone, strong at the offensive line, had a nice goal, and was just all over the ice. I love this guy.
 
Zaitsev has been ruled out for Game 2 again, meaning we'll have to bear with Marincin (and his 30ish % SCF%) in game 2 again.

Will Marchenko get a look? (I know Babs said no change to blueline but you can't take any coach's words for it in the playoff)

The top 4 did an awesome job in game 1, but Carrick + Marincin was pretty disastrous. We need better possession from our bottom unit in game 2.

And I wonder what's wrong with Zaitsev if he's ruled out of Game 2 so early (instead of wait till tomorrow).

Cracked ribs? Dislocated shoulder? Or concussion?
 
number17 said:
Zaitsev has been ruled out for Game 2 again, meaning we'll have to bear with Marincin (and his 30ish % SCF%) in game 2 again.

Will Marchenko get a look? (I know Babs said no change to blueline but you can't take any coach's words for it in the playoff)

The top 4 did an awesome job in game 1, but Carrick + Marincin was pretty disastrous. We need better possession from our bottom unit in game 2.

And I wonder what's wrong with Zaitsev if he's ruled out of Game 2 so early (instead of wait till tomorrow).

Cracked ribs? Dislocated shoulder? Or concussion?
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From the way he looked after Foligno mashed his head into the boards, I really don't think there's any question at all that it's a concussion.

And I would hazard a guess that he was ruled out of Saturday's game earlier than today, but because it's the playoffs (and because Lou Lamoriello is our GM), the Leafs didn't feel any need to release that information any earlier than they had to.

If they go through the standard concussion protocol, he'll continue to ramp up his off-ice workouts as long as he continues remaining symptom-free, and if he's still symptom-free a week after the concussion (which would be this Sunday) and after his off-ice workouts (he was working on the stationary bike today), then he'll progress to on-ice workouts.

So, if absolutely everything goes right, then maybe we see him practicing with the team by Monday, with an outside shot that he'll get into game #3 on Wednesday, or game #4 on Friday if everything continues going right for him, and no symptoms pop up after practicing with the team.
 
I haven't been near a pro hockey helmet in years, but you'd think there'd be layers of insulation now where even if your head hit something hard, that there'd be padding upon padding that would absorb the blow.

I don't think there's anything preventing the impact of open ice shoulders to the head where the head jerks back violently, but just getting crunched into the glass, you'd like to think the equipment could save you from injury in this day and age.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
I haven't been near a pro hockey helmet in years, but you'd think there'd be layers of insulation now where even if your head hit something hard, that there'd be padding upon padding that would absorb the blow.

I don't think there's anything preventing the impact of open ice shoulders to the head where the head jerks back violently, but just getting crunched into the glass, you'd like to think the equipment could save you from injury in this day and age.
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The helmets are concussion preventive but none will ensure no concussion. The body armour is the problem.
 
The issue isn't the insulation in the helmet, but the lack of insulation between the brain and skull. No amount of insulation in the helmet fixes that little engineering problem.
 
Ayap. Your noggin floats in your skull, how are you supposed to protect it from slamming into said skull repeatedly?
 
MindzEye said:
The issue isn't the insulation in the helmet, but the lack of insulation between the brain and skull. No amount of insulation in the helmet fixes that little engineering problem.
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Bingo. A soft mushy super muscle clanging around a bowl made of bone...gee I wonder whats going to happen.
 
You can save that for after Easter weekend. The teachings of Christ are morals, not necessarily a bad thing.
 
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