We can't expect automatic improvements to our shooting percentage, but we CAN expect an automatic reduction in our save percentage.
Ok.
In a word: yes. One was unsustainable and the other isn't necessarily primed for an off-setting level of improvement to the degree that it will effectively counter the decline in the other area. Now, I *do* think Ottawa will prove their shooting percentage next year, but probably not to the degree guys like SENSible think.
Let's say that Ottawa's shooting percentage does increase by 2-3 percent. In a situation where Ottawa takes an average of 33.1 shots on goal per game (their average last year - tops in the NHL) that works out to 2,714 shots (last year's average multiplied by 82 games). At an average of 2.33 non-shootout goals last season Ottawa would have scored 191 goals over a full regular -season.
They scored on 7.04 percent of their shots in 2012-13. If we increase that scoring rate to 9.04 percent - a convenient, round two percent increase and also the median ranked total by team last year (Vancouver) - they would score 245 goals over a full NHL schedule. That's a
massive scoring increase of 54 goals above their projected goal total using last season's metrics.
Now, if Ottawa experiences a corresponding drop in team save percentage from 2012-13's unsustainable .935 mark to a still superb .925 mark let's see what happens:
Ottawa goalies stopped 1,402 out of 1,500 shots last season. That works out to 2,395 saves on 2,563 shots over 82 games - 168 goals against.
Were the Sens save percentage to drop ten points (.925 times 2,563 shots equals 2,370 saves) then they would allow 193 goals, an increase of 25 goals against. Coupled with a net gain of 54 additional goals with a league-average shooting percentage, Ottawa comes out quite favourably: +29 in their change of goal differential.
Of course, such a huge leap in rankings in terms of shooting percentage from one year to the next is unlikely. If Ottawa only improved their team shooting percentage by 1.5 percent - still a sizeable increase (they would have ranked 20th with that rate in 2012-13) - they would be projected to score 232 goals, a more realistic figure. That's an improvement of 41 goals over their projected goals for total last season and a +16 goal differential over their expected increase in goals against. That's about five or so wins worth of improvement right there.
If Ottawa, who was on pace for 96 points last season, added ten points it would have them at 106. That would rank fourth in the league in points in the full season before last.
But how likely is that scenario? With largely the same personnel in place in 2011-12, including excellent, healthy campaigns from Karlsson and Spezza, and an unexpectedly productive year for Alfredsson, Ottawa had a team shooting percentage of 9.44 percent - in the upper-third of the league. However, they had a corresponding negative difference in save percentage of .911 - 24 points worse than what they would receive from their goalies the next season. Rather than a +12 goal differential - projected to +23 (191-168) over 82 games, Ottawa only had a +9 differential. They were 5th in goals for and 24th in goals against, and ranking 16th in save percentage. Last season they were 26th in goals for, and 2nd in goals against, ranking first in save percentage by an unheard of margin: TEN points!
It's entirely possible, likely even, that Ottawa's projected increase in offensive output will be met with an accompanying decline in defensive performance, both due to unsustainable save percentages and the departure of their top minutes-eating defender from last season in Gonchar. Of course they should see corresponding improvements in offensive output. If the last two years under MacLean are any indication though, receiving both quality offence AND defence could prove problematic.
Lastly, if we decrease Ottawa's team save percentage to .920 - and keep in mind they improved by an unheard of 24 points from 2011-12 to 2012-13 (so they're still out ahead by a huge 9 points from 2011-12 to 2013-14 here) - they would have allowed 205 goals last year (.920 times 2,563 shots equals 2,358 saves). That's a projected increase of 37 goals from last season to this year over 82 games. That's with top three team goaltending no less. If we give Ottawa that total, coupled with the projected 232 goals on a respectable projected 1.5 percent improvement in team shooting percentage, that's a team with a goal differential of +27.
That's a good, playoff-quality club and a slight improvement over last season's projected +23 differential. Four goals improvement in goal difference (41 GF and 37 GA) works out to between 1 and 2 additional wins depending on how you look at it. That would give Ottawa between 97 and 100 points or so next year. I had them pegged for 98, so this looks about right to me. A very decent offensive improvement with a regression towards the mean in goaltending performance. Keep in mind though that 205 GA is very good: it would have ranked 7th in the NHL in 2011-12.
And if you're asking, I have the Leafs around 100-104 points as of today. I think they'll be stronger defensively next season while dressing Gardiner for a full season un-encumbered by a concussion, while playing AHL plugs like Fraser, Kostka, and Holzer substantially less. Ranger represents a potentially huge defensive addition as well based on his past track record and if he is mentally prepared and of sound mind. Bernier should represent an improvement in goal, especially over Scrivens, and Lupul will benefit the offence mightily if he's healthy for a full year.
Just my take.
