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Leafs/Habs/Sens 2014-15

Stone is a natural goal scorer, who is going to get a lot of ice time. I don't think 23 goals is an unrealistic number for him.
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You don't think 23 goals is unrealistic for a guy who had a 82 game pace of 27 goals in the AHL over the past 2 seasons? While getting 3rd line minutes and at best, 2nd unit PP time?


Is it a stretch to suggest that Turris will score 25 this year in his expanded role when he got 26 last year?
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No

Is it a stretch to suggest that MacArthur will score 25 this year in his expanded role when he got 24 last year?
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Yes, it is a stretch to expect him to hit a career best two seasons in a row, with last season including his highest SH% of his career.

Is it a stretch to suggest that Ryan will hit 35 when he's already done it, and has four 30+ goal seasons under his belt already?
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When he did it playing with Getzky & Perry, and has scored at a 24 goal pace over his last 2 seasons....yes, yes it is.

Probably not.
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You don't think it's a stretch to predict that the Sens forwards will score more goals by themselves (235), than the entire team scored last season (236)...after losing Jason Spezza and not replacing him with anyone of consequence?

Our numbers aren't even that different. I think he went high on Michalek, and low on MacArthur, plus as stated he did leave out two players I accounted for.
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His numbers, plus what would be expected out of your blue line, are almost exactly what the Sens did last season, which I think is a little optimistic given the loss of your #1 centre...but realistic. You're expecting the Sens the be somewhere in the 3.2 GPG range (235 from forwards + 30 from defenders)....which would have been 1st in the league last season.

So basically you're calling this Senators group a runaway offensive freight train...and if that's how you feel, cool, you do you bruh....but all I want to know is how much money can I put on the under?

Provided that guys stay healthy, none of my estimates were outlandish. Some of them are pretty conservative in my opinion.
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Your estimates are outlandish

Deal_368aed_1390499.gif
 
mac 20 - turris 25 - ryan 30
mitch 15 - ziba 15 - chiasson 15
smith 10 - legwand 15 - stone 15
hoffman 15 - lazar 10 - neil 5

190
 
I don't know if I would call that realism.

Expecting a player like Zibanejad, who will one year older and eating some of Spezza's minutes, to score fewer goals isn't realism.

Predicting Michalek to score the fewest goals since joining the league isn't realism.
 
corksens said:
I don't know if I would call that realism.

Expecting a player like Zibanejad, who will one year older and eating some of Spezza's minutes, to score fewer goals isn't realism.

Predicting Michalek to score the fewest goals since joining the league isn't realism.
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Predicting a forward group that scored 183 goals last season....and lost their leading scorer in the off season, to score 190 goals this season, is pretty ****ing generous. If you want to call it unrealistic, have at it. You're predicting that they've gained 26 goals by getting rid of their #1 centre and Johnny is hilariously predicting an additional 52 goals.

Zeke is the only one of the 3 that was even remotely close to last year's totals...
 
MindzEye said:
Predicting a forward group that scored 183 goals last season....and lost their leading scorer in the off season, to score 190 goals this season, is pretty ****ing generous. If you want to call it unrealistic, have at it. You're predicting that they've gained 26 goals by getting rid of their #1 centre and Johnny is hilariously predicting an additional 52 goals.

Zeke is the only one of the 3 that was even remotely close to last year's totals...
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If you want to look at everything in total numbers, go at it. I like to think we have the ability to break things down into 12 pretty basic numbers.
 
2yr Paces:

Mac 22 - Turris 23 - Ryan 24
Mitch 16 - Ziba 17 - Chiasson 18
smith 11 - legwand 16 - stone 14
hoffman 9 - lazar? - neil 8

178 + lazar
 
leafs 2yr:

jvr 32 - bozak 24 - kessel 36
lupul 32 - kadri 25 - clarkson 15
komo 8 - santo 12 - frattin 11
winnik 8 - holland 12 - booth 11

226
 
MindzEye said:
Yes, it is a stretch to expect him to hit a career best two seasons in a row, with last season including his highest SH% of his career.
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MacArthur has hit 20+ goals in 3 of his last 4 seasons. The 1 season he missed it also happens to have been the lockout season, and coincidentally when Carlyle put him in the doghouse for no apparent reason. Thanks for that, by the way. His career best was not last season, it was his first season as a Leaf.

He'll get more icetime, more PP time, and that line has good chemistry. I expect MacArthur will match last season's production at the very least, and could very easily eclipse it.

When he did it playing with Getzky & Perry, and has scored at a 24 goal pace over his last 2 seasons....yes, yes it is.
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1) So?
2) Lockout shortened season.
3) He was injured most of the season. Now he isn't.


You don't think it's a stretch to predict that the Sens forwards will score more goals by themselves (235), than the entire team scored last season (236)...after losing Jason Spezza and not replacing him with anyone of consequence?
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Spezza was so horrible defensively it doesn't matter. He scored 14 goals at even strength last year. Too bad the opposition scored 40 while he did that.

His numbers, plus what would be expected out of your blue line, are almost exactly what the Sens did last season, which I think is a little optimistic given the loss of your #1 centre...but realistic. You're expecting the Sens the be somewhere in the 3.2 GPG range (235 from forwards + 30 from defenders)....which would have been 1st in the league last season.
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Last season was a disaster. There is no way that the team can suck that hard in every area again.

So basically you're calling this Senators group a runaway offensive freight train...and if that's how you feel, cool, you do you bruh....but all I want to know is how much money can I put on the under?
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You'd think I had predicted that 12 guys were all going to score 30 goals or something.

Your estimates are outlandish
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No they aren't.

Recognize that.
dlo.jpg
 
habs

patch 38 - dd 17 - pap 26
Gally 22 - plek 22 - galy 16
bourque 15 - eller 13 - prust 10
moen 3 - malhotra 7 - weise 7

196
 
Other than maybe Kadri and Holland, I would suggest that Leafs roster is likely maxed out on goal potential. Not to mention Lupul's largely inflated numbers by a small burst in 2012-2013.
 
zeke said:
leafs 2yr:

jvr 32 - bozak 24 - kessel 36
lupul 32 - kadri 25 - clarkson 15
komo 8 - santo 12 - frattin 11
winnik 8 - holland 12 - booth 11

226
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note here that isn't actually much of an upgrade over what the leafs got from their top six last year.

but that's about double the production from the bottom six.
 
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