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Play-in Round: Toronto Maple Leafs (8) vs Columbus Blue Jackets (9)

Preston said:
Look at the cup winners in the last decade and where they finished in the regular season. Then do the basic math.

Best team in the NHL may have a 15% chance at best at winning the cup in any given season according to Vegas. The 6-8th best team, maybe 7 or 8%. I'll take 10 years straight of having a 7-8% chance of winning the cup any fucking day. Keep being competitive for as long as possible and your odds of winning a cup in those 10 years are pretty damn good. Basic statistics my man.

I know you hate him, but Dubas has been consistent with this message from day 1, which I love. He gets it. He's just trying to extend the window for as long as possible, hence keeping that core together. They will always be in that tier for as long as they stay together.
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You know one way of increasing your odds? Not underperforming in the regular season like we did again this year. This team should be right there with Tampa and Boston to win the division every year. You get a better playoff matchup and increase your odds of navigating through the grind of the playoffs. The playoff format sucks, but you win the division and you face a wild card team and let the other top teams in our division massacre each other in the 1st round and pick up their spare parts in Round 2.

None of this is related to luck. Sure hockey has a lot more bounces and randomness than other sports (i.e. compared to basketball), but in general I tend to believe you make your own luck and that the best teams usually win it all. And to reply to your other point, it is very difficult to sustain 10 years of competitive hockey for any club. Teams and their window to win are usually a lot less than that, save for some exceptional cases (i.e. Washington, Pittsburgh) who have had generational players stick around and take a bit of a discount while their GM's have done a good job of building around them. Even Chicago didn't last that long with their multiple cups. And when we got Tavares that made our window to win quite clear. A few years down the line when he is older and not as effective, our team's chances will get worse to compete for a cup. It will also force Dubas to juggle the salary cap in a post-COVID world while being forced to continuously hit on cheap talent/draft well to replace the inevitable cap casualties we will have on a yearly basis.

I don't think people here appreciate all of this stuff. People just think because Matthews, Marner, and Nylander are young and talented that we have this endless number of years to be competitive and win.
 
leaffan2005 said:
You know one way of increasing your odds? Not underperforming in the regular season like we did again this year. This team should be right there with Tampa and Boston to win the division every year. You get a better playoff matchup and increase your odds of navigating through the grind of the playoffs. The playoff format sucks, but you win the division and you face a wild card team and let the other top teams in our division massacre each other in the 1st round and pick up their spare parts in Round 2.

None of this is related to luck. Sure hockey has a lot more bounces and randomness than other sports (i.e. compared to basketball), but in general I tend to believe you make your own luck and that the best teams usually win it all. And to reply to your other point, it is very difficult to sustain 10 years of competitive hockey for any club. Teams and their window to win are usually a lot less than that, save for some exceptional cases (i.e. Washington, Pittsburgh) who have had generational players stick around and take a bit of a discount while their GM's have done a good job of building around them. Even Chicago didn't last that long with their multiple cups. And when we got Tavares that made our window to win quite clear. A few years down the line when he is older and not as effective, our team's chances will get worse to compete for a cup. It will also force Dubas to juggle the salary cap in a post-COVID world while being forced to continuously hit on cheap talent/draft well to replace the inevitable cap casualties we will have on a yearly basis.

I don't think people here appreciate all of this stuff. People just think because Matthews, Marner, and Nylander are young and talented that we have this endless number of years to be competitive and win.
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1. Yes, I agree. They're in a tough division which is unfortunately awful luck. Washington won a cup largely because of their easy path. Leafs won't have that luxury. But they should be better and more consistent in the regular season. I agree. That's a fair criticism.

2. Very difficult to do, yes. But that's what Dubas is trying because as he says, once you get in the playoffs as a competitive team he recognizes the luck factor that goes into it. So the longer you stay competitive the better. If not 10 years, then 8 or 7 or 5... Whatever the case, you want to stay competitive for as long as possible to increase your odds of winning. That's all I'm saying. If the Leafs were world beaters and clearly the best team in the NHL for 1 season but irrelevant for the next 5, their odds of winning a cup won't be any better than if they hover around the 6-8 range for the next 5-7 years. Dubas is right when he says his job is primarily to extend the window; and getting Tavares did not shorten the window. The rest is mostly up to the players performing + fortune.
 
that's the other good point. Our stars didn't take a discount and they won't be looking to take one on their next deals either. Nor was the cap flat for those other teams.
 
I mean the issue is Tavares and his contract. Unless he plays at a high level for the next 5-6 years which I would say is unlikely, his contract is an anchor and it will likely hamper our ability to improve the roster much down the road. And that's not accounting having to pay Rielly.

This is why the next few years are so crucial.
 
zeke said:
In 3yrs tavares will be 32.
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And?

And in 5 years he will be 34. Well on the way to decline. Those last two years he may be more like a Kadri-type than a legit 1st line centre and at $11 million that hampers the teams ability to add around him for sure while making us less dangerous offensively.
 
yeah I think the anchor thing has been overstated...the guy signed till 34, not 38 or whatever.

he might even be worth keeping at a more reasonable sum to finish his career, we'll see.
 
leaffan2005 said:
And?

And in 5 years he will be 34. Well on the way to decline. Those last two years he may be more like a Kadri-type than a legit 1st line centre and at $11 million that hampers the teams ability to add around him for sure while making us less dangerous offensively.
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Yet they will still be a top 10 team in the NHL for the entirety of the JT contract. I've never been huge on that contract but it won't stop them from being a top 10 hockey team unless they suddenly make a series of awful decisions to their lineup. As long as Dubas is here I don't really see that happening.
 
Snark Free Question: If Leafs won one Cup in the next 10 years, would you be happy?
 
Volcanologist said:
yeah I think the anchor thing has been overstated...the guy signed till 34, not 38 or whatever.

he might even be worth keeping at a more reasonable sum to finish his career, we'll see.
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Was really hoping next CBA would have something like NFL to allow for teams to renegotiate contracts with players signed on their team. So if we wanted to make a trade at the draft, maybe JT gives back $500k per year to fit the trade into our cap
 
Statistically speaking any team hoping for more than one cup in a decade is probably getting a little greedy. You could make a case for 2, I suppose.

But I'd be more than fine with 1.
 
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