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Play-in Round: Toronto Maple Leafs (8) vs Columbus Blue Jackets (9)

I agree with Dubas's read entirely -- team needs to mature, play more consistently, play a solid two-way game. They definitely have the talent to do this at an elite level but have yet to show it. Now is the time.
 
Be competitive for long enough and the law of averages will eventually play out. #luck #stopoveranalyzing #imtalkingtoyou2005
 
I jokingly said to my Sens fan hubs and daughter that this ironically would be the year we win it all as there won’t be able to be the huge parade etc. Lunchbox letdown.
 
Preston said:
Be competitive for long enough and the law of averages will eventually play out. #luck #stopoveranalyzing #imtalkingtoyou2005
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Tell that to the Sharks. Or the old Ottawa teams.

Also, my analysis is far more fruitful than your "well hell it's all random and any team can beat any team" take. You could use some additional analysis in your posts.
 
BeLeafer said:
I agree with Dubas's read entirely -- team needs to mature, play more consistently, play a solid two-way game. They definitely have the talent to do this at an elite level but have yet to show it. Now is the time.
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see the thing is I think they already displayed surprising maturity in their first 3 playoffs against rugged veteran elite teams.

as for consistency and two way game, well, hopefully having a real coaching system will help there.
 
leaffan2005 said:
Also, my analysis is far more fruitful than your "well hell it's all random and any team can beat any team" take. You could use some additional analysis in your posts.
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Of course it's not all random. You keep thinking that's what I'm implying, but it's not. But if you're a top 5-8 team in the NHL for 10 years, your odds of winning a cup once in those 10 years is pretty good. And I didn't say 100%. That's not how statistics work. You should know this.

And Dubas has said this exact thing not long ago. He's absolutely correct.
 
Preston said:
Yeah, so again you don't know how stats work
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It would help if you didn't spew the same cryptic nonsense over and over again and provided some concrete opinions or thoughts once in a while. I understand your argument just fine I just think it's silly to say stuff like "eventually it will turn around" because the stars will eventually align and the luck will eventually turn without accounting for the other stuff that makes teams successful which is independent of luck and randomness.
 
zeke said:
see the thing is I think they already displayed surprising maturity in their first 3 playoffs against rugged veteran elite teams.

as for consistency and two way game, well, hopefully having a real coaching system will help there.
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I think the consistency and two-way game is what Dube is talking about with maturing. From my viewing, the core young guys were pretty up and down for each of those series.
 
Preston said:
Of course it's not all random. You keep thinking that's what I'm implying, but it's not. But if you're a top 5-8 team in the NHL for 10 years, your odds of winning a cup once in those 10 years is pretty good. And I didn't say 100%. That's not how statistics work. You should know this.

And Dubas has said this exact thing not long ago. He's absolutely correct.
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What data do you have to back that up? That's a big claim to say as long as your a top-8 team for years in a row that there is a good chance you will eventually break through. A bunch of teams have been part of that club over the years and have not broken through. It increases your odds, sure. But I don't accept the narrative that as long as you are a competitive club eventually things will turn in your direction or that there is a significant chance if this happening.
 
leaffan2005 said:
It would help if you didn't spew the same cryptic nonsense over and over again and provided some concrete opinions or thoughts once in a while. I understand your argument just fine I just think it's silly to say stuff like "eventually it will turn around" because the stars will eventually align and the luck will eventually turn without accounting for the other stuff that makes teams successful which is independent of luck and randomness.
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Sometimes less analysis is more viable than reading way too much into everything as you're guilty of. Results do not always equal performance, especially in this sport. "Leafs barely lost to the best team in the NHL two years in a row so it's time to blow it up and they're shit and losers and chokers." No. Relax. Two years ago they probably got slightly outplayed, but they were arguably the better team last year. Sometimes shit just happens. Bad bounces, shitty goaltending (which is a part of the issue, I get it), poor calls by the refs, etc. The over-analyzing by you with every loss is ridiculous.

I was upset with how they played in the season this year over a larger sample size. I don't like their inconsistent play and there were more than viable reasons for criticism. But to throw a bitch fit over their playoffs is just being stupid.
 
leaffan2005 said:
What data do you have to back that up?
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Look at the cup winners in the last decade and where they finished in the regular season. Then do the basic math.

Best team in the NHL may have a 15% chance at best at winning the cup in any given season according to Vegas. The 6-8th best team, maybe 7 or 8%. I'll take 10 years straight of having a 7-8% chance of winning the cup any fucking day. Keep being competitive for as long as possible and your odds of winning a cup in those 10 years are pretty damn good. Basic statistics my man.

I know you hate him, but Dubas has been consistent with this message from day 1, which I love. He gets it. He's just trying to extend the window for as long as possible, hence keeping that core together. They will always be in that tier for as long as they stay together.
 
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BeLeafer said:
I think the consistency and two-way game is what Dube is talking about with maturing. From my viewing, the core young guys were pretty up and down for each of those series.
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whereas imo we were outclassed systems wise making it almost impossible to look great defensively.
 
leaffan2005 said:
Tell that to the Sharks. Or the old Ottawa teams.

Also, my analysis is far more fruitful than your "well hell it's all random and any team can beat any team" take. You could use some additional analysis in your posts.
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Well maybe if Ottawa didn't shake things up by trading Hossa and letting Chara go because they couldn't get by the Leafs they would have won a cup.

There will never be a guarantee to win the cup. But this idea that certain good teams just aren't built for the playoffs, or can never win as currently constructed has been proven to be a useless narrative two years in a row now.
 
how do you account for the mysterious and historical curses embedded in organizational DNA and team jerseys?
 
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