OT: The Official Toronto Raptors Thread
- Thread starter hockeylover
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zeke
Well-known member
NBA playoffs are objectively fun and good to Watch because you can enjoy them as a neutral fan. You dont need an rooting interest to watch the nba playoffs. I dont care one bit about the play-in teams this year, I have zero love or hate for the current play-in teams at the moment , zero emotional attachement to the clippers, blazers, magic, suns, sixers, Hornets, Warriors, Heat yet all the play in games were legit fun with wild finishes. Stuff of legends. Talented starters going off and having great performances under pressure, being on the court for most of the game Also helps the product and rewards excellence and fair competition because in basketball, the cream ( superior teams and players) always finds a way to rise to the top in most situations . Logic is respected-the better teams almost always win against the lesser teams over the course of a seven game series.
Its like a Best on Best playoffs, Sure there are less upsets that happen in the nba compared to other sports leagues but we see a clash of titans every round. The nature of basketball itself makes the game exciting. Same thing when it comes to the NFL, the elite players dominating under pressure, the talent,strategy, coaching and athleticism on display makes it must Watch tv. broadcasts in both leagues are generally fun and well produced, crowd energy/engagement is almost as good as soccer, both sports themselves translate well on TV (you miss very few nuances/stuff on TV, unlike in hockey where you miss often a ton of positioning/situational awareness and "small things" because it happens outside of the camera frame) and I even have less to complain about on the officiating front unlike in the NHL.
And Even the support cast/depth in the nba-the bench players are superior than their counterparts in hockey, Baseball And football : bottom six forwards/six/third pairing defensemen/utility players/ outfielders/infielders/back up quarterbacks/Wide receivers/linebackers etc etc. Because there are only 450-500 spots in the nba so you have to be exceptional if you want to make it. Height, basketball, elite genetics, motor, IQ/vision/fundamentals, coordination, Kobe-like work ethic, balance, talent, skill, athleticism, mobility etc . The competition is fierce considering that so many countries are producing elite basketball talent right now. Its very very hard to stand out from the pack and be above so many talented and genetically/ physically gifted players.
NBA Rosters: 15 players ( 5 starters and 5-10 bench players for substitutions)
NHL : 20 ( 12 forwards, 6 defensemen, 2 goalies( starter and backup)
MLB : starting lineup ( 4 infielders, 1 starting pitcher, 1 starting catcher, 3 outfielders) and a literal Platoon/backup team of utility players in the dugout in case of injuries. Also the pinch runners and relief pitchers.
NFL: 52 team Rosters lol
In the NHL/MLB/european soccer leagues(epl, la Liga, etc) by comparaison you need a rooting interest to watch the games and be invested emotionally. If Arsenal, the Leafs and the Jays wouldnt exist, I would probably not Even bother with these sports leagues. To be honest, My personal enjoyment of hockey, baseball and soccer and engagement with these sports leagues depends on the current state of my favorite teams- if they are good, competent, entertaining and likeable, i will follow these sports much more closely Otherwise my interest Will be much lower
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In hockey: The best forwards/best Line can only play 20-25 minutes a game including three on three overTime (individual hockey shifts last 1 minutes or so) The Best defensemen can only play 25-30 minutes a game. Only the starting goaltender can play the entire game. Hockey is a Low scoring sport with a lot of variances. Fluke things happen often. Opportunistic/timely scoring and great goaltending can overcome the domination of the opposing them. Your team can be out played, outskated, out shot and outchanced for most of the night but you still can get away with a win if your goaltending/powerplay is on fire
In baseball : The Best/most powerful/ profilic hitters can only come to the plate 4 Times in a game. Usually They bat between 1(lead off hitterspot) and 5. Why ? Because the Top of the order hitters get more at bats. So Your Best hitters get more opportunities to hit, get on bases and score runs.
Baseball is the only sport on earth where the defense has the advantage.
Soccer : its so hard for strikers/attackers/offensive midfielders to maintain Ball possession and generate quality scoring chances on the regular. And most soccer games are low scoring and low event
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MyNameIsJonas
Well-known member
Pardon?
zeke
Well-known member
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Ja'Kobe first 10 games of the season by Game Score: 3.1
Ja'Kobe last 10 games of the season by Game Score: 12.2
CMB first 10 games of the season by Game Score: 10.4
CMB last 10 games of the season by Game Score: 15.2
Mamu first 10 games of the season by Game Score: 10.5
Mamu last 10 games of the season by Game Score: 15.2
To give an idea of what that means, the rough scale for game score is
50+: A historic night (Bam's 83 was a 60.5 for example, Jokic's 56/16/15 triple double was a 68.5)
40+: Elite, elite performance (Jokic has about 15 of these this season)
30+: An average night for Jokic, Shai, etc
20+: Good performance for a star level player
20: A typical, not great, not bad performance for a typical allstar (think an average Scottie game)
15: Pretty normal output for a NBA starter quality player. Think standard RJ type stuff.
5: Average game from an average NBA bench player
We still could/should have added another decent bench body or two at the deadline because it gets thin beyond those 3 in a hurry, but those 3 putting down starter calibre performances pretty regularly is a huge boost.
Ja'Kobe last 10 games of the season by Game Score: 12.2
CMB first 10 games of the season by Game Score: 10.4
CMB last 10 games of the season by Game Score: 15.2
Mamu first 10 games of the season by Game Score: 10.5
Mamu last 10 games of the season by Game Score: 15.2
To give an idea of what that means, the rough scale for game score is
50+: A historic night (Bam's 83 was a 60.5 for example, Jokic's 56/16/15 triple double was a 68.5)
40+: Elite, elite performance (Jokic has about 15 of these this season)
30+: An average night for Jokic, Shai, etc
20+: Good performance for a star level player
20: A typical, not great, not bad performance for a typical allstar (think an average Scottie game)
15: Pretty normal output for a NBA starter quality player. Think standard RJ type stuff.
5: Average game from an average NBA bench player
We still could/should have added another decent bench body or two at the deadline because it gets thin beyond those 3 in a hurry, but those 3 putting down starter calibre performances pretty regularly is a huge boost.
zeke
Well-known member
I still like Shead, even though his shooting fell off as the year went on. But he finished off fairly strong despite the poor shooting - last 10gms he had a just mediocre -1.3bpm in a fairly tough bench role as both a lead ballhandler and a primary defender on tough perimeter guards.
9 deep should be enough if we're healthy. We only used 8 guys for more than 5mpg in our title run.
I also think that Trayce guy can give useful big minutes in a pinch.
9 deep should be enough if we're healthy. We only used 8 guys for more than 5mpg in our title run.
I also think that Trayce guy can give useful big minutes in a pinch.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
Who won this bet?
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Can't remember the specific bet
But:
Jake
EPM: 1.3 (0.5/0.7)
BPM: 1.6 (0.3/1.3)
CraftedBPM: 1.4 (-0.6/+2.2)
CMB
EPM: 1.2 (-0.3/1.5)
BPM: 0.8 (-0.6/+1.3)
CraftedBPM: 0.1 (-1.2/+1.3)
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Yeah, I'm not a Shead believer until the shooting is there. I think that shit can fly as a role player when it's a new team every night but the biggest thing that changes in the playoffs is the schemes. A team of NBA coaches sits down and designs shit specifically for you. There's no bad teams to hide against, no bad players to pad stats against. I just don't think Shead is that type of player until there's a 37% 3 pointer that changes defences by just letting his dribble down as much of the shot clock as he wants, ignoring his shot completely and covering the pass. Also don't think he's big enough to trouble anyone on Cleveland who handles the ball aside from Schroder.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
"i'll bet that CMB's metrics at least match Poeltl's by the end of the year."
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Cool, thanks.
They did not. They were though better than I thought they would be. I'm not upset with him or his development at all.
zeke
Well-known member
Crafted hasn't updated in a while.
Jake: 1.6bpm, 0.9aEPM, 1.3EPM, -0.2lebron = 0.9avg
CMB: 1.0bpm, 0.7aEPM, 1.2EPM, 0.6lebron = 0.9avg
We'll have to wait for Crafted and DPM to update.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Fuck DPM, and Crafted updates daily to my knowledge.
Also, fwiw...comparing two players on the same team, one a starter and one a reserve using Lebron is a bad idea. It's an on/off stat at heart, so starters facing other starters are penalized. Bench players facing lesser competitive on average get a bump. Which is why you're seeing it disagree with all of the other metrics the way that it is. Because Jake is an averagish starter, and CMB is an above average bench player....which is what LEBRON is actually telling us there.
zeke
Well-known member
Fuck you. Crafted likes DPM just fine.
and Crafted doesn't even have the correct updated BPM yet.
eh i don't think you can say there was much difference in quality of usage for these two this year.
CMB started nearly half his games, and posted excellent numbers when he had his longest stretch of starting when poeltl was injured - +2.7bpm when he started 18 of 19gms in jan/feb.
EPM (both kinds) has them as pretty much identical. BPM favors Jak, but BPM is the simplest/messiest of all of them. Lebron favors CMB. We'll see what DPM and DRIP say in the end.
And remember - most all these numbers are informed by their priors - Poeltl's priors are very good, whereas CMB's were low as they were just rooke placeholder priors.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Crafted weights it in with the rest of their data. Just like the include all of the plus minus derived stats that uses player tracking. My "fuck" DPM bit was basically that it's a dead project that never updates. As a weighted data point in CraftedBPM it's fine. But I'm not worried about it as a serious metric anymore. Just like I don't fuck with RAPM based metrics (like LEBRON) until they start to include player tracking data in their models.
On the whole? You absolutely can. CMB was on the second unit for the majority of his games this season. 22 is not "nearly half" of 57 mate.
Poeltl, even when he was hurt, was used almost exclusively against starter lineups at the beginning and end of games.
Jake played 354 minutes with the Scottie-Ingram-RJ-IQ unit and they were a +7.1 together. CMB played 160 minutes with that unit and it was a +3.9 together. 2 of CMB's 3 most common 5 man lineups this year had 2 or more of Mamu, Shead, Walter, Dick on it with him. That's bench usage mate. His most common was with that starting lineup, but that was covering for an injured Poeltl.
On the other side of it, you have to get to Jake's 10th most common 5 man lineup this year (22 minutes) to find one that included 2 bench players (Walter + Shead).