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Around the League 2018-2019 Edition

Habsy said:
You’re not pulling a zeke on this one are you? The kid is showing promise for sure and from what I’ve seen he has great wheels, his edge work is good and he can pass but #1 D? I know you said “might” but that’s a tall order imo.
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I've been ridiculously impressed with his work in the AHL this season as an 18 yr old. He's not being matchup sheltered (which Lilly was to a degree last year, also as an 18 yr old) and he's been really good. He's a controlled zone exit machine already, the pre draft knock on him concerned his lack of physical strength appears to have been waaay overblown (he comes out of 50/50's with the puck a whole lot), very high IQ out there, and as you mentioned, his tools are pretty apparent.

He's a Roman Josi type defender and has that kind of ultimate upside imo. His floor is pretty high too, at least a good 2nd pairing guy with no glaring weaknesses. My one point of caution with him is that there's no stand out physical tool (which is probably why he made it to the bottom of the 1st round). Shot is good but not a cannon. He's a good skater with good edges but he's not fast at this point. His lack of size and strength were overblown at the draft, but he's still not going to be confused as Shea Weber out there either. So he may hit the show and have the lack of outstanding physical tools hold him back, but tbh skating is the only one I have concerns about. He's got to find a step or two within the next couple of years.
 
Small sample size obviously, but if Sandin keeps this up he's on pace to destroy every other 18 year old AHL dman season. Currently he has 0.53 ppg. None of Lindholm, Voynov, Liljegren, Kylington had better than 0.39. Also his 5v5 eP1/60 is top 5 in the AHL.

Great skill set, and great start. There is lots of potential there. It looks like he has offensive talent that Dermott doesn't.
 
MindzEye said:
I've been ridiculously impressed with his work in the AHL this season as an 18 yr old. He's not being matchup sheltered (which Lilly was to a degree last year, also as an 18 yr old) and he's been really good. He's a controlled zone exit machine already, the pre draft knock on him concerned his lack of physical strength appears to have been waaay overblown (he comes out of 50/50's with the puck a whole lot), very high IQ out there, and as you mentioned, his tools are pretty apparent.

He's a Roman Josi type defender and has that kind of ultimate upside imo. His floor is pretty high too, at least a good 2nd pairing guy with no glaring weaknesses. My one point of caution with him is that there's no stand out physical tool (which is probably why he made it to the bottom of the 1st round). Shot is good but not a cannon. He's a good skater with good edges but he's not fast at this point. His lack of size and strength were overblown at the draft, but he's still not going to be confused as Shea Weber out there either. So he may hit the show and have the lack of outstanding physical tools hold him back, but tbh skating is the only one I have concerns about. He's got to find a step or two within the next couple of years.
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You may be right, we’ll see if he continues to impress. Your description does remind me of one of our prospects that’s starting to turn heads in Josh Brook. I just am not ready to think of him as a #1 guy yet. Of course he’s still in Moose Jaw but he’s at 1.32 PPG.
 
i don't like the Dermott comp though. that just confuses things. Dermott is built like a brick shithouse and is a great skater. Kind of the opposite of Sandin.

Sandin is better, but in much different ways.
 
leafman101 said:
Back to back hatricks for Ovie. 28 goals in 31 games at 33 after literally the GOAT offseason bender.
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I gotta say, I'm really impressed. I was expecting a huge Cup hangover, especially after how well-documented his summer bender was. But he's like a man possessed now.

We're lucky to get to watch one of the greatest goal scorers ever
 
Wayward DP said:
I gotta say, I'm really impressed. I was expecting a huge Cup hangover, especially after how well-documented his summer bender was. But he's like a man possessed now.

We're lucky to get to watch one of the greatest goal scorers ever
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Literally the greatest goal scorer ever. You gotta look at adjusted goals.

I was thinking about this yesterday... I don't think there's ever been anyone that's been the best goal scorer in the league for anywhere need as long.

Phil Esposito won 6 straight goal scoring titles which is extremely impressive... but he fell off quickly after that.
Mike Bossy had 9 straight 50g+ seasons but it took place during the highest scoring era and he "only" won 2 goal scoring titles.
Wayne Gretzky had the greatest goal scoring seasons ever and was tops in the league 5 times in 6 years.
Bobby Hull might be the closest to Ovie in terms of being the best for the longest in his era. 7 goal scoring titles in a 10 year span. Ridiculous.
Ovechkin is primed to win his 8th in 12 years... and really... he looks like he could still win a couple more after that. Phenomenal.
 
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Habspatrol said:
Literally the greatest goal scorer ever. You gotta look at adjusted goals.

I was thinking about this yesterday... I don't think there's ever been anyone that's been the best goal scorer in the league for anywhere need as long.

Phil Esposito won 6 straight goal scoring titles which is extremely impressive... but he fell off quickly after that.
Mike Bossy had 9 straight 50g+ seasons but it took place during the highest scoring era and he "only" won 2 goal scoring titles.
Wayne Gretzky had the greatest goal scoring seasons ever and was tops in the league 5 times in 6 years.
Bobby Hull might be the closest to Ovie in terms of being the best for the longest in his era. 7 goal scoring titles in a 10 year span. Ridiculous.
Ovechkin is primed to win his 8th in 12 years... and really... he looks like he could still win a couple more after that. Phenomenal.
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He's at 635 goals right now, age 33. Say he gets another 20 goals this year (which would still be 48 total on the season), that gets him to 655.
A 40 goal season next year (age 34), and he's up to almost 700. That means that in his age 35+ seasons, he would only need about 100 goals to get up to 2nd place all-time. Even if he retires after his age-38 season, that would only be 25 goals a year for those years.

Wayne is still uncatchable - he'd have to average 40 goals a year for 6 seasons after this one. But man, you're looking at most likely the #2 scorer ever in terms of raw goals, not even counting era adjustments.
 
Jagr not taking multiple years off and not sitting through a bunch of league stoppages was the best shot at someone catching gretz in raw goals I think.


-He scored 32 goals in 48 games during the 94/95 stoppage. So we're probably talking about another ~20 goals there.
-He scored 31 the year before the 04/05 lockout, and 54 the year after so I don't think ~40 is crazy to slot in there.
-Then there was his 3 years in Russia to "finish his career". 25 goals the year prior and 19 in 73 games when he returned. Not at all crazy to slot in 60-70 goals in the 3 years he missed.

766 career NHL goals, and he may have missed out on another ~120 which would have left him in the 880-890 range. Gretz has 894. Now, Gretz was also around for Jagr's first lockout, but he had 11 goals in 48 games when the league resumed...so Gretz probably cracks 900 without, but not much more than that. Could a healthy, motivated, not locked out Jagr have hit 900?
 
UWHabs said:
He's at 635 goals right now, age 33. Say he gets another 20 goals this year (which would still be 48 total on the season), that gets him to 655.
A 40 goal season next year (age 34), and he's up to almost 700. That means that in his age 35+ seasons, he would only need about 100 goals to get up to 2nd place all-time. Even if he retires after his age-38 season, that would only be 25 goals a year for those years.

Wayne is still uncatchable - he'd have to average 40 goals a year for 6 seasons after this one. But man, you're looking at most likely the #2 scorer ever in terms of raw goals, not even counting era adjustments.
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Oh yeah, it's going to be difficult for him to catch Gretzky in actual goal scoring. Interestingly enough... he literally passed Gretzky in adjusted goals yesterday. He's now 3rd all time with 761 G/A, Gretzky is 4th with 758. The top 2 are Howe with 925 and Jagr with 841. (those numbers include WHA games)

For a little more context... here's their G/A per game.

Ovechkin .736
Mario .673
Rocket .668
Bossy .613
Brett Hull .582
Crosby .561
Esposito .523
Teemu .511
Jagr .485
Gretzky .483
Robitaille .456
Iginla .454
Shanahan .441
Bobby Hull .440
Howe .423


Note: I can't find a "goals adjusted per game" list, so this is a sampling of the top overall goals adjust scorers (plus some other higher profile guys) then I divided by their games played. There might be some guys lower on the list who have a lot less games played and could be higher in the per game stat.

Ovie is in a class of his own.
 
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If he scores 30 goals over the next 51 games after scoring 28 though 31 games. That puts him at 665. I think these numbers going forward are realistic. We've seen guys put up these type of seasons at those ages... why not the greatest goal scorer of all time?

2018-19 - (33) 58g - 665
2019-20 - (34) 50g - 720
2020-21 - (35) 45g - 765
2021-22 - (36) 45g - 810
2022-23 - (37) 40g - 850
2023-24 - (38) 35g - 885
2024-25 - (39) 25g - 910
 
Let's not forget that today's hockey hasnt the snowseldding of the past ..... it was big boy hockey, not ringette like today.
 
Take onto account the sticks alone, never mind the weightless equipment.
I watched all the top scores over the past 50 years, Ovechkin isnt one of my top 5 .... no matter what your stats say. Top 10 yup.
But behind bossy, Gretzky, hull, mario even Temmu and maybe bure, I would personally rate higher.
The guy is phenomenal and will make it into the HF
I agree that jagr did screw himself by going to the khl but his gambling habit probably drove him to it.
 
All of that and any other arguments about era vs era is negated by era adjusted scoring. Also, a beast of a man like Ovechkin certainly would have been just fine in any era.
 
uncus said:
Take onto account the sticks alone, never mind the weightless equipment.
I watched all the top scores over the past 50 years, Ovechkin isnt one of my top 5 .... no matter what your stats say. Top 10 yup.
But behind bossy, Gretzky, hull, mario even Temmu and maybe bure, I would personally rate higher.
The guy is phenomenal and will make it into the HF
I agree that jagr did screw himself by going to the khl but his gambling habit probably drove him to it.
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That's the only possible argument against Ovechkin being the greatest goal scorer ever.

If you ignore stats... then yeah... you can call whoever you want the best.
 
No he wouldnt ..... because back them if he had of run at guys the way he does, he would have had to have answered for more than a 2 minute minor.
How do you adjust for snow boarding and the hooking and the holding back then ...... ya ... so let's hear some more numbers lol
 
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