What happens to Jake Gardiner might depend on what happens with Dougie and the expansion draft. If Dougie IS GOING TO sign AND/OR we lose, say, Skjei in the expansion draft (I'm assuming we protect Bean), then I could possible see the Canes trying to salvage another season out of Gardiner in a hopes he can return to some sort of NHL caliber. If Dougie re-signs (or gives an indication that he will re-sign) and we still have Slavin, Pesce, Bean, Skjei after the expansion draft I think we would buy Gardiner out for sure. Really either way though, I would PREFER the Canes just buy Gardiner out.
Forgetting about all of the escrow/deferment adjustments, buying out Gardiner saves almost $2.9 million in real cash and knocks his cap hit each of the next 2 years from $4,025,000 per to $1,291,667, $1,041,667, then 2 more years of $1,441,667. I think he is cooked and would rather have the Canes move on from him no matter what. But the Canes might end up with just Slavin, Pesce and Bean if/when Dougie gets his huge payday elsewhere and if Ronnie decides to grab Skjei and not someone like Foegle. If its clear Dougie is leaving and we lose a Dman in the expansion draft, then maybe the Canes don't buy out Gardiner.
The buyout period will start soon after the Cup Finals end. That will be BEFORE the expansion draft but the buyout period will end AFTER the expansion draft (but before UFA opens). So I would say don't expect the Canes to make a buyout move on Gardiner until after the expansion draft.