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Advanced Stats Thread

Dion-led teams have made the playoffs in 6 of his 9 seasons in the league.

He has been the #1 on those teams in all but 1.5 seasons - the first was his rookie season, the 2nd was the half-season before calgary traded him after cutting his minutes. That year was also the first year the Flames missed the playoffs, and they haven't made it back since.

The Leafs as well, of course, never made the playoffs without Dion, and look to be good to make the playoffs for the 2nd time in 4yrs with him this year.

His teams' place in the league standings each year:

13-14: 7th (#1 toi)
05-06: 7th (#4 toi)
11-12: 9th (#1 toi)
08-09: 10th (#1 toi)
07-08: 12th (#1 toi)
06-07: 13th (#1 toi)
09-10: 15th (#2 toi - 55gms) / 29th (#1 toi - 26gms)
10-11: 22nd (#1 toi)
11-12: 26th (#1 toi)
 
I feel like anytime I talk about the Leafs with guys at work and Phaneuf is brought up I get into having to defend him. Nearly all the casual Leaf fans I know hate him and spout the same shit the media does but think it's their own opinion; it is the most frustrating conversation to have.
 
I used to get the same, but have fully converted the guys I work with. Now they regularly bad mouth "one dimensional" defenders like Karlsson, & Subban.
 
Montana said:
you've no idea.....98% of the Canucks fans out here are complete knuckle draggers when it comes to advanced stats. 75% of my friends wouldn't even know what QoC means.
Click to expand...

Say no more. When "garbage cans on fire/60" is the most advanced statistic a fanbase is familiar with, you're simply not going to have much to discuss with them on that front.
 
Montana said:
you've no idea.....98% of the Canucks fans out here are complete knuckle draggers when it comes to advanced stats. 75% of my friends wouldn't even know what QoC means.
Click to expand...

It's not even about advanced stats. How can anyone watch games this year, like the ones against the Ducks and Pens and conclude Phaneuf isn't really good? He's completely shutdown the top players on the opposing teams all season, while still posting offense at a high level.
 
PlayerToBeNamedLater said:
It's not even about advanced stats. How can anyone watch games this year, like the ones against the Ducks and Pens and conclude Phaneuf isn't really good? He's completely shutdown the top players on the opposing teams all season, while still posting offense at a high level.
Click to expand...

Honestly, I don't think the average fan (let alone average Canucks fan) really notices/recognizes quality defensive performances....I think they notice when they produce points, or when the get beat, and if it's a Leafs player, then that image of them getting beat is what sticks with them.
 
MindzEye said:
Say no more. When "garbage cans on fire/60" is the most advanced statistic a fanbase is familiar with, you're simply not going to have much to discuss with them on that front.
Click to expand...


...because I'm not a good person, it's a constant battle between "do I want to educate my friends" or "do I want to silently enjoy the surreal brilliance of their ignorance"
 
There hasn't been one defenseman in the league that's been used like Phaneuf this year. He's matched up against the opposing teams best players, every shift of every game (at least Randy tries to get that matchup).

Props to Gunn as well. He's been top notch as his partner and is facing a similar level of comp.
 
Gunner is criminally under appreciated....even around here I'm not sure he quite gets the props he deserves.
 
Something I've never quite grasped about the corsi argument as well is how you blatantly ignore the situations in which approximately 15% of all goals occur within...special teams. Just to look at the 'corsi killer' Leafs for a second over the last 2 seasons.

2012/13
PPOp - 166 (10th)
PP% - 18.7 (14th)
PPG - 31 (9th)

TSH - 157 (13th)
PK% - 87.9 (2nd)
PPGA - 19 (2nd)

So, we received a +12 goal differential (a very good predictive statistic btw....) from our special teams last season. How about this year so far?

13/14

PPOp - 45 (9th)
PP% - 26.7 (3rd)
PPG - 12 (2nd)

TSH - 47 (21st)
PK% - 85.1 (6th)
PPGA - 7 (6th)


When you look at the special teams numbers, and then look at the portions of the 5 on 5 game that Toronto excels at (SH%, % of shots coming from high % goal scoring areas, SV%), it really speaks towards the possibility that skill is a much bigger factor than the analytics community believes (whether it be offensive or defensive skill), and that the Leafs are a successful team, while being a possession outlier, because they excel in the skill areas of the game.
 
Montana said:
...because I'm not a good person, it's a constant battle between "do I want to educate my friends" or "do I want to silently enjoy the surreal brilliance of their ignorance"
Click to expand...

Build a man a garbage can fire and you'll warm him for an evening, throw a man in a garbage can fire and warm him for the rest of his life.

That's my philosophy.
 
By the way, Phaneuf's +3.9 QoC rating this year is the highest ever recorded by behindthenet among regular NHL dmen. Usually a QoC close to +2.0 is good for tops in the league. Phaneuf is almost double that.
 
The reason the lazy stats guys ignore special teams is because they're more variable from year to year - thus, in their minds, not a reliable indicator of True Talent.
 
Defenseman Leaders in QoC (last 5 years):

13/14: Phaneuf +3.9
12/13: Ekman-Larsson +2.7
11/12: Mcdonagh +1.7
10/11: Lidstrom +1.8
09/10: Seabrook +1.7
 
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