GDT - Leafs @ Devils | Beginning of the end 7:30PM EST SNET
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number17
Mod Squad
AS I said, it was a solid game. We deserved better but this really sounds like a broken record now.
number17
Mod Squad
Not a bad read, but I disagree with this:
"if Gardiner plays against much weaker opponents than, say, Phaneuf, then it would be only natural that Phaneuf’s numbers would be worse. But as it turns out the weighted average number of shots attempted by the opponents Gardiner plays against is pretty much the same as Phaneuf, Franson and Rielly. Which strongly suggests that Gardiner’s much lower CA/60 must reflect a genuine ability to suppress opponents’ shot attempts."
This is such flawed logic and Mirtle knows that. You don't measure opponent a dman face by looking at his shots against. There IS a stat that measure that, and that is QoC. And here's how Gardiner's rank against other dmen:
Phaneuf +1.169
Franson +0.858
Polak +0.597
Holzer +0.203
Gardiner -0.189
Robidas -0.383
Rielly -0.703
Other than the fact Rielly has been really babied, it also shows Gardiner has in fact been getting much easier opponents than Franson and Dion and Polak which Mirtle compared him to.
On top of that, Gardiner (and Ribidas) also have the lowest Defensive zone start of the team in 34.7%. It indeed shows Gardiner has been given a much easier defensive load than his teammates.
"if Gardiner plays against much weaker opponents than, say, Phaneuf, then it would be only natural that Phaneuf’s numbers would be worse. But as it turns out the weighted average number of shots attempted by the opponents Gardiner plays against is pretty much the same as Phaneuf, Franson and Rielly. Which strongly suggests that Gardiner’s much lower CA/60 must reflect a genuine ability to suppress opponents’ shot attempts."
This is such flawed logic and Mirtle knows that. You don't measure opponent a dman face by looking at his shots against. There IS a stat that measure that, and that is QoC. And here's how Gardiner's rank against other dmen:
Phaneuf +1.169
Franson +0.858
Polak +0.597
Holzer +0.203
Gardiner -0.189
Robidas -0.383
Rielly -0.703
Other than the fact Rielly has been really babied, it also shows Gardiner has in fact been getting much easier opponents than Franson and Dion and Polak which Mirtle compared him to.
On top of that, Gardiner (and Ribidas) also have the lowest Defensive zone start of the team in 34.7%. It indeed shows Gardiner has been given a much easier defensive load than his teammates.
number17
Mod Squad
On top of that, even though the Shots against and "Scoring chances against" (how do they measure that anyways?) might keep Gardiner in-line with the other dmen on the team, despite easier opponents (as the Corsi QoC shows), where the story isn't so rosy is the actual goals allowed:
ES close, GA/60
Robidas 1.53
Phaneuf 2.37
Franson 2.59
Rielly 2.95
Gardiner 3.02
Polak 3.47
This is pretty interesting because the "defensive stalwart" that we all thought Polak was, he's medium for QoC, and team worst for ES GA at 3.47.
It also shows Phaneuf faces the most difficult opponent, but allow the 2nd least goals against.
It also shows Rielly and Gardiner who have been really pampered, are below average defensively.
ES close, GA/60
Robidas 1.53
Phaneuf 2.37
Franson 2.59
Rielly 2.95
Gardiner 3.02
Polak 3.47
This is pretty interesting because the "defensive stalwart" that we all thought Polak was, he's medium for QoC, and team worst for ES GA at 3.47.
It also shows Phaneuf faces the most difficult opponent, but allow the 2nd least goals against.
It also shows Rielly and Gardiner who have been really pampered, are below average defensively.
leafman101
Well-known member
Not only did the Leafs "allow" a ridiculously low amount of shot attempts, so did the Devils.
From Mirtle, there were 81 shot attempts last night. Average game has 112. And this one had an extra 5 minutes.
Brutal hockey. Don't know if anyone caught any of the Blackhawks/Kings game after but may as well have been a different league.
From Mirtle, there were 81 shot attempts last night. Average game has 112. And this one had an extra 5 minutes.
Brutal hockey. Don't know if anyone caught any of the Blackhawks/Kings game after but may as well have been a different league.
leafman101
Well-known member
I don't know how the Devils win any games. They are so slow. Painful to watch.
number17
Mod Squad
For the most part, the way the Leafs play (and lose) are VERY much the textbook example of a Horachek team. Ask any of the Panthers fans from those days, or even PReds fans when he was the assistant there, and it should be painfully obvious ... yes, he manages to keep the shots count low, for both teams, and the team STILL comes out scoring less than the opponent when all is said and done ... a lot of 0-1 and 1-2 losses and that's exactly why Horachek is not a NHL headcoach.
Is he an upgrade over Carlyle? I think so. But is he a good NHL coach? No. That much is very obvious now.
Is he an upgrade over Carlyle? I think so. But is he a good NHL coach? No. That much is very obvious now.
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
I was AT the game. It was amazing. It really is a different league.
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
Yeah, we kinda all got excited by seeing the defensive turnaround, but this is not hockey. Moreover, we're the least well-suited team out there to play this style.
We need someone to embrace our run and gun, high octane style, while just making us more defensively responsible 5 on 5.
The season is nearly ****ed anyway, so at this point, I think from a coaching perspective, either we just figure it out under Horachek, or we stink out the rest of the season and load up at the draft.
leafman101
Well-known member
In fairness Horachuk is implementing Trotz's system. You can't blame everything on the coach.
The way he wants the team to play certainly doesn't suit the group of players here though. He needs guys to grind it out and get to the front of the net, and eliminates a lot of the ice and room for creativity. Thats part of the reason why they are having trouble scoring goals. They have to do things that aren't their strengths for the most part.
It has opened up opportunity for the dmen like Gardiner and Rielly to be in the play with the forwards hanging around for the breakout. They have more options, and can jump up into the rush more consistently. Its a big reason why they have looked better.
The way he wants the team to play certainly doesn't suit the group of players here though. He needs guys to grind it out and get to the front of the net, and eliminates a lot of the ice and room for creativity. Thats part of the reason why they are having trouble scoring goals. They have to do things that aren't their strengths for the most part.
It has opened up opportunity for the dmen like Gardiner and Rielly to be in the play with the forwards hanging around for the breakout. They have more options, and can jump up into the rush more consistently. Its a big reason why they have looked better.
CRL
Well-known member
take that, haters
zeke
Well-known member
meh. they're solidly outchancing the opposition. it suits them just fine.
number17
Mod Squad
No I don't necessarily agree. I don't think this group of forwards cannot play Horachek's / Trotz's system. I think the impact on the defense has been felt here immediately and it's a positive change.
But while Trotz seems to be able to create enough offense with his system to win games, Horachek hasn't been able to do the same - and this is his second try as NHL headcoach. It's the same result.
I also think the Leafs will get better at it over time. Midseason system change is never easy, and we're still adjusting to it. I do think we'll start getting some bounces, then some wins, and we'll be back on track again but of course, the mid-season firing will have cost our season by then.
All this for keeping Carlyle for half a season.
Pucklosopher
Member
To win a lot of games, I think the Leafs are going to need a dynamite PP if they are going to keep slogging things up at even-strength. I'd like to think they can do better than Horachek, with this amount of talent, but who knows.
leafman101
Well-known member
Under Horachuk (NHL Rank)
Scoring Chance +/-: +3 (16th)
Scoring Chances For/60: 26.9 (13th)
Scoring Chances Against/60: 26.5 (16th)
Scoring Chance For%: 50.4 (16th)
Its pretty much even.
number17
Mod Squad
Read what I posted in response.
Though Mirtle had a clear agenda to 'wow' the readers in trying to paint a picture where Gardiner is as good as any Leafs dman defensively, reality is he has the 3rd easiest minutes (as the Corsi QoC comparison showed), he doesn't allow of a lot of shots against when he' on the ice (which is Mirtle's only point) but he allows the highest goals per minute when he's on the ice.
It shows how good Phaneuf's been defensively, and how bad Gardiner's been defensively at the same time. That's what the advanced stats really show.
And despite all these stats easily available, Mirtle chose to ignore the GA/60 and the QoC stats to paint that picture ... too bad it's not true.
number17
Mod Squad
I've always wondered ... what constitute a "Scoring chance"?
because Horachek has definitely made a significant improvement in shots against per 60 and also CorsiAgainst / 60, not to mention GAA despite piss poor goaltending for most of those games
leafman101
Well-known member
Well thats the problem with scoring chances.
Steve Valiquette started tracking them as green shots and red shots. Green shots are anything that is deflected, screened, or where the puck crosses the middle of the ice, either by skating or with a pass. Those shots go in some insane percentage of the time. So its not subjective at all. Apparently the Leafs were good a producing green shots earlier in the year. Would love to see those numbers.
Steve Valiquette started tracking them as green shots and red shots. Green shots are anything that is deflected, screened, or where the puck crosses the middle of the ice, either by skating or with a pass. Those shots go in some insane percentage of the time. So its not subjective at all. Apparently the Leafs were good a producing green shots earlier in the year. Would love to see those numbers.