hockeylover
Well-known member
lol this team.
GDT - Roast duck for dinner | Leafs @ Ducks 10PM EST
- Thread starter number17
- Start date
mbow30
Spudmeister Supreme
the pp will start clicking again.
still too many long shifts and a few bad breakdowns tonight.
but, they're doing a much better job of controlling the gaps. they're forcing a lot more dump ins into their end, which has really helped cut down on the amount of time the opposition has spent cycling the puck, and they're staying much closer together on the breakout.
the pp has been cold. it'll snap out of it in a few games and they'll open the flood gates a bit. kessel's a 30+ goal guy. he won't be held off the score sheet for much longer.
still too many long shifts and a few bad breakdowns tonight.
but, they're doing a much better job of controlling the gaps. they're forcing a lot more dump ins into their end, which has really helped cut down on the amount of time the opposition has spent cycling the puck, and they're staying much closer together on the breakout.
the pp has been cold. it'll snap out of it in a few games and they'll open the flood gates a bit. kessel's a 30+ goal guy. he won't be held off the score sheet for much longer.
Volcanologist
Well-known member
So Perry beaks off about how he thought about coming to Toronto but then realized he wanted to live a happy life.
Then he scores a hat trick against us the same night.
Why, God? Why do you do things like this? I just don't understand.
Then he scores a hat trick against us the same night.
Why, God? Why do you do things like this? I just don't understand.
CRL
Well-known member
I was hoping for McDavid
BeLeafer
Well-known member
My bigger concern is them generating chances 5-on-5. It's very early, obviously, but the tight gap seems to be playing havoc with their ability to generate speed through the neutral zone. And once they're in the offensive zone, the opposition is well positioned to defend. Of course, this is against two good teams that know how to defend.
LeafGm
Well-known member
Well, the difference is now any team missing the playoffs actually has a chance of winning the 1st overall pick period. Under the old rules, if you won the lottery, the most you could do was move up four spots in the draft. I remember under those rules, the team picking 8th (Godfather Lou's Devils, of course) won the lottery one year and moved up to 4th overall.
Still, as nice as it'll be to at least have a shot at 1st overall, the odds for the teams that finish just out of the playoffs (which is where these Leafs are probably headed) are pretty miniscule:
BeLeafer
Well-known member
Well, the difference is now any team missing the playoffs actually has a chance of winning the 1st overall pick period. Under the old rules, if you won the lottery, the most you could do was move up four spots in the draft. I remember under those rules, the team picking 8th (Godfather Lou's Devils, of course) won the lottery one year and moved up to 4th overall.
Still, as nice as it'll be to at least have a shot at 1st overall, the odds for the teams that finish just out of the playoffs (which is where these Leafs are probably headed) are pretty miniscule:
Okay, this may be a lesson in reasons not to rely on wikipedia, but I'd read that it went like this:
Last place: 25%
Second last: 18.0 or 18.8%, can't remember ...
Then chance reduced by 0.5% for each subsequent pick to the 17th. Or something like that.
BeLeafer
Well-known member
Yeah, here it is:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHL_Entry_Draft#Selection_order_and_Draft_lottery
Is this wrong?
I see my error though ... to .5% rather than by .5%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHL_Entry_Draft#Selection_order_and_Draft_lottery
Is this wrong?
I see my error though ... to .5% rather than by .5%
CRL
Well-known member
at least we have win less streak this time of the year but not closer to spring so we dont have to have high hopes for a playoffs
some positive
LeafGm
Well-known member
It looks like the Wikipedia entry is out of date---the NHL changed the draft lottery odds again this summer.
Here's a link straight from the source: NHL announces changes to Draft Lottery format.
And I actually learned something I didn't know before from that link: the NHL will be changing the draft lottery again in 2016. After 2016, they'll draw for the first three selections in the draft, not just the 1st overall pick. Which means that the Edmonton Oilers will no longer be guaranteed at least the 2nd overall pick every year---going forward, they could fall as low as 4th in the draft.
Here's a link straight from the source: NHL announces changes to Draft Lottery format.
And I actually learned something I didn't know before from that link: the NHL will be changing the draft lottery again in 2016. After 2016, they'll draw for the first three selections in the draft, not just the 1st overall pick. Which means that the Edmonton Oilers will no longer be guaranteed at least the 2nd overall pick every year---going forward, they could fall as low as 4th in the draft.
BeLeafer
Well-known member
I'd put that 100% on the decision to keep Carlyle. Just a patently stupid move.
The question now is whether this team can push for playoff position from where they are? It seems doubtful and given the need to acquire cheap talent due to long term contact liabilities, there's never been a better rationale for loading up on draft picks and not worrying about squeaking into the playoffs.
BeLeafer
Well-known member
Thanks. I didn't have much time to find it but it wasn't coming up on my searches last week.
Finish 10th or lower and find a trading partner to get another such pick!
LeafGm
Well-known member
It is pretty sad. I mean, I'm not willing to write this team off completely---I still think this is a team with enough talent that they should be comfortably in the playoff picture.
But Shanahan's ****up with Carlyle means that not only are we in a deepening hole with half the season in the books, but we're also trying to completely change the way we play in the middle of the season, when the good teams already know their own systems inside and out, and are hitting their stride on the way to the playoffs. We should have had a new coach and a new approach right from the 1st day of training camp.
number17
Mod Squad
Before we start talking McDavid, let's just say not too many teams who keep their opponents to 25 shots and under on a nightly basis miss the playoff, never mind pick 1st ovearall.
This team is in transition, it's trying to find the balance between playing responsible D and taking enough offensive chances to win.
And puck luck's not been on our side (or on Horachek's side) because it's not like the Leafs didn't have chances ... we had 3 x 2on1's early in the 1st, 2 of them featuring JVR, Kessel, Kadri and Bozak, but we didn't even get a shot on the net. These things WILL turn around. I'm not worried about Kessel and Kadri and JVR not being able to find the back of the net ... I'd be a lot more worried about these guys slacking off to their old form defensively than their offense.
There are a few interesting observations though ...
- Horachek's leaned heavily on his Rielly - Polak pairing, which should be a GOOD thing because this gives Rielly a chance to develop. However, Rielly is REALLY lost out there, especially in his defensive zone, and especially in his zone coverage. Many times he left his man wide open in the slot. I hope as his ice time and responsibility increases so does the coach's attention to this young D-man. He needs a lot of work.
- Gardiner's played better since the coaching change, but Robidas' really makes you cringe at times. The first ANA goal last night started with Robidas's miscue, and as the most experienced dman you can't do that. It's ironic that couple weeks ago Nonis was saying on radio he's most proud of the Robidas signing this summer, it just shows how delusional our GM can be. Robidas is the weakest link right now and unlike Rielly, he isn't gonna develop. I sure hope it's just it takes a long time to recover from his serious injury last year, or else his contract is gonna look very, very bad in a hurry.
- We also haven't had any puck luck, as a lot of pucks seem to be going in off our dman's skates or legs or sticks ... last night ANA scored one off Franson's skate
- It's always sad to see a player like Booth who lost so much time to concussion get concussed again, but the silver lining might be this will actually help the team with another call up. Booth has been VERY useless and brings neither speed, tenacity, physical play or offense to the table. I'm hoping the call up - McKegg, Kozun or whoever it is, will be able to help the 4th line.
I think the team is playing the RIGHT way now, it isn't easy to hold Anaheim to 25 shots and just like how the last 6-2 win over ANA didn't really show how bad our team was playing, I think this 4-0 loss also doesn't show how well we've transformed under Horachek. I just hope the players can stay the course in transformation and not go back to playing sloppy pond hockey because of a few losses.
This team is in transition, it's trying to find the balance between playing responsible D and taking enough offensive chances to win.
And puck luck's not been on our side (or on Horachek's side) because it's not like the Leafs didn't have chances ... we had 3 x 2on1's early in the 1st, 2 of them featuring JVR, Kessel, Kadri and Bozak, but we didn't even get a shot on the net. These things WILL turn around. I'm not worried about Kessel and Kadri and JVR not being able to find the back of the net ... I'd be a lot more worried about these guys slacking off to their old form defensively than their offense.
There are a few interesting observations though ...
- Horachek's leaned heavily on his Rielly - Polak pairing, which should be a GOOD thing because this gives Rielly a chance to develop. However, Rielly is REALLY lost out there, especially in his defensive zone, and especially in his zone coverage. Many times he left his man wide open in the slot. I hope as his ice time and responsibility increases so does the coach's attention to this young D-man. He needs a lot of work.
- Gardiner's played better since the coaching change, but Robidas' really makes you cringe at times. The first ANA goal last night started with Robidas's miscue, and as the most experienced dman you can't do that. It's ironic that couple weeks ago Nonis was saying on radio he's most proud of the Robidas signing this summer, it just shows how delusional our GM can be. Robidas is the weakest link right now and unlike Rielly, he isn't gonna develop. I sure hope it's just it takes a long time to recover from his serious injury last year, or else his contract is gonna look very, very bad in a hurry.
- We also haven't had any puck luck, as a lot of pucks seem to be going in off our dman's skates or legs or sticks ... last night ANA scored one off Franson's skate
- It's always sad to see a player like Booth who lost so much time to concussion get concussed again, but the silver lining might be this will actually help the team with another call up. Booth has been VERY useless and brings neither speed, tenacity, physical play or offense to the table. I'm hoping the call up - McKegg, Kozun or whoever it is, will be able to help the 4th line.
I think the team is playing the RIGHT way now, it isn't easy to hold Anaheim to 25 shots and just like how the last 6-2 win over ANA didn't really show how bad our team was playing, I think this 4-0 loss also doesn't show how well we've transformed under Horachek. I just hope the players can stay the course in transformation and not go back to playing sloppy pond hockey because of a few losses.
zeke
Well-known member
So frustrating. We should have been going through these systemic growing pains in October not January. What a waste.
But the improvement is still clear on the ice, and I refuse to believe that we're suddenly not going to be able to score now that we're playing a good possession game.
That being said, I'm not too happy about how we responded after giving up the third goal. They had a couple of bursts in the second half but you could see their lack of belief in the comeback.
Another big test tonight. Let's see if they stick with the game plan.
But the improvement is still clear on the ice, and I refuse to believe that we're suddenly not going to be able to score now that we're playing a good possession game.
That being said, I'm not too happy about how we responded after giving up the third goal. They had a couple of bursts in the second half but you could see their lack of belief in the comeback.
Another big test tonight. Let's see if they stick with the game plan.
