Hey Nerds: Blockchain
- Thread starter zeke
- Start date
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
It's a pretty shoddy short report too. It's basically
- The CEO's husband might be a white collar criminal who owns a construction company that might have done work for TRUL
- We don't like their grow house technology and think it will turn out bad product....how much market share they hold and reviews on their products were not considered when we made this assertion
- They follow IFRS and we don't understand the implications of that....or we understand it and hope you don't
- They bought some property that might not be worth what they paid, but we have no idea if there were improvements, etc done to the property that would raise it's value
a couple others even sillier to get into. Oh, and they took drone pictures, which is high level due diligence.
By all means peel back the layers of the real estate transactions, we've seen greasy shit when it comes to the transfer of assets in this industry already (and additional attempts by Privateer recently to engineer crooked transactions), but they've got fairly weak questions, not actual evidence driven allegations in there.
- The CEO's husband might be a white collar criminal who owns a construction company that might have done work for TRUL
- We don't like their grow house technology and think it will turn out bad product....how much market share they hold and reviews on their products were not considered when we made this assertion
- They follow IFRS and we don't understand the implications of that....or we understand it and hope you don't
- They bought some property that might not be worth what they paid, but we have no idea if there were improvements, etc done to the property that would raise it's value
a couple others even sillier to get into. Oh, and they took drone pictures, which is high level due diligence.
By all means peel back the layers of the real estate transactions, we've seen greasy shit when it comes to the transfer of assets in this industry already (and additional attempts by Privateer recently to engineer crooked transactions), but they've got fairly weak questions, not actual evidence driven allegations in there.
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
Yeah. I've already read a few good rebuttals (including one from a major investment firm)
I view these unestablished short shops as semi-fraudulent; they write a scary (but shoddy) report on a small cap stock when investors are already in fear mode. In the case of TRUL, overall sector blahs and stock specific lockup expiration was already weighing heavy. I think this is a buying opp and feel bad for anyone who got shaken out at $12.
I view these unestablished short shops as semi-fraudulent; they write a scary (but shoddy) report on a small cap stock when investors are already in fear mode. In the case of TRUL, overall sector blahs and stock specific lockup expiration was already weighing heavy. I think this is a buying opp and feel bad for anyone who got shaken out at $12.
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
Yeah man...it's pretty sad.... and deliberate by the short firm
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Yeah, first thing I did when the rebuttals started coming out from the houses was looked at the house positions. Retail got shook down.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
Feels like December is dead on most names. Tax loss selling, low volume and share unlocks (from various MSOs) causing some slow bleeding. I think January will be better; hopefully things hold up alright until then. Could be nice buying opportunities like last December though.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
Last year was different because of the broad market meltdown, but the most gains I've ever made on this sector in particular was in January of this year. I was all cash until Christmas Eve and went beyond balls deep in MJ (more than I'll ever put in this sector again). January was pretty fucking good to me.
Conditions are different this year just because of the broad market currently being strong (MJ blowing up was likely helped by SPY recovering hard at the same time), but this year has quite a bit more tax loss selling going for it. I don't expect January to be like this past January (that would be foolish to ever expect that), but I do think they'll be a bit of a January bump going on. I'm hoping for more extreme conditions, particularly on MSOs as they are more beat up than LPs right now. Think it could be a pretty decent shopping season.
I'm playing with 15% of my MJ profits over the past couple of years so it's all house money... But I'm willing to go up to 30% if things get crazy enough. Lotta cash on the sidelines at the moment.
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
I think 2020 will be a good year in the market. Besides pot, I really like emerging markets (EEM), Mexico (EWW), and commodities like Oil, Gold, Metals, etc --- Basically all the asset classes that have been depressed for multiple years by the amazing strength of the US dollar. That trade started working recently, but should have legs for another year or two.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
I agree. It seems everyone is expecting the worst for 2020 but I mean really, SPY just broke bullish out of a basically 8 month equilibrium. It kind of sets things up quite well for 2020 across the board.
As for pot, when I look at the bitcoin chart from December 2017 to December 2018, I see similarities to CGC from April 2019 to November 2019. The bottoms look quite similar and the slow and controlled break offs from the bottom appear similar too. In the absence of real game changing news/fundamental performance that appears to be how it's going to have to break off. Can't expect the parabolic booms right off the bottom anymore it seems.
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
The days of throwing money at some 20c POS pot stock (FFT, LGC, etc) and seeing 1K transform to 5K two weeks later are over.
They're will be massive winners. Look back at the dotcom bubble. The market crashed 70% (including AMZN, MSFT, etc) companies got wiped out but the internet didn't go away...it just got bigger and the survivors kicked ass.
They're will be massive winners. Look back at the dotcom bubble. The market crashed 70% (including AMZN, MSFT, etc) companies got wiped out but the internet didn't go away...it just got bigger and the survivors kicked ass.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
Exactly. Now's the time to look at fundamentals. Amazing opportunity if you pick a winner. If you don't, you're insanely fucked though. And it's easier said than done.. Just when you think something is clear, you have a CannTrust situation on your hands. Like as of right now MSOs seem to have separated themselves quite nicely and if SAFE gets enacted in Q1 2020 as predicted all the more reason to feel comfortable in them... But can you really fucking trust anyone in this sector?
High risk, insanely high reward.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Problem with the MSO's is that it's a horrendous, bloated business model with massive amounts of duplication and waste through the organization. That's just the nature of existing in this regulatory model at that scale though. Even SAFE doesn't really change that, though it will open up a flood of capital that will allow for easier expansion, better vertical integration within individual states, etc.
As long as they don't blow it out massive capex projects with an unknown retail market as the pot of gold at the end of the equity rainbow, it's all good and they might not replicate the Canadian mistake.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
Oh yeah. And most MSOs are a disaster at this point, no doubt. But there are two or three in particular that will be cash flow positive in the next 1-2 quarters and on the way to pulling in 500m-1b in revenues for 2020. These are the firmly established ones.. And they are taking advantage of the smaller players who don't have cash to expand at the same level; so if anything, they are using the capital crunch to extend their lead on others. Not ideal, but it has its advantages.
I think strategic, but aggressive expansion is crucial to their long-term success and there aren't many who have done it right thus far. You want to be pulling in billions annually before the US federalizes legally, because if they legalized today they'd be bought out by big alcohol and big tobacco for pennies on the dollar. As long as Florida continues to show insanely high growth (with rec on the horizon), Illinois (which is looking like is going to be insanely lucrative for the big players there as many smaller players straight up can't expand their operations at the same level because of lack of cash), NJ legalizing seems to be on the horizon, NY is sure to follow, Connecticut, PA, etc. I suspect by 2023 they'll all be legal, with potentially some others as well. Big advantage for those who will be profitable in 2020 and beyond, although expansion ain't cheap so SAFE would certainly help too. You think a company pulling in 3-4 billion annually with brand recognition would be attractive for big alcohol to get their hands on upon legalization? Well.. I fully expect we'll see those kind of numbers, maybe sooner than we think.
Speaking of SAFE, hot off the press. Some ridiculous demands and overall pretty stupid shit but maybe there's finally some movement/discussion on this. I have read that some expect it to happen in Q1 2020:
Key Senate Chairman Lays Out Possible Marijuana Banking Bill Changes - Marijuana Moment
A powerful Senate committee chairman said on Wednesday the he opposes House-passed marijuana banking legislation and laid out potential changes he would like to see to the bill before he takes it up in his panel. Among other amendments being floated for public feedback is a 2 percent THC potency...
www.marijuanamoment.net