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The thing is, there's gonna be plenty of time to reasonably guess which MSOs have what it takes to separate themselves from the pack. The winners will be winning for a long time. So, I'm not going to rush to judgement. I bought into TRUL today because I love the short term overreaction and the long term potential of the Florida market. Otherwise, I'm forcing myself to keep plenty of ammo dry.

I will probably hit the MJBiz Con in Vegas next year. Meeting these operators face to face is invaluable.

In the meantime, the market outside of cannabis is providing ample opportunities to bank coin. The reflation trade is on. Markets outside the US are finally showing a pulse.
 
TSLA hit new all time highs today. Elon's old joke about being bought out at $420 is almost here. Insanity.
 
CH1 said:
The thing is, there's gonna be plenty of time to reasonably guess which MSOs have what it takes to separate themselves from the pack. The winners will be winning for a long time. So, I'm not going to rush to judgement. I bought into TRUL today because I love the short term overreaction and the long term potential of the Florida market. Otherwise, I'm forcing myself to keep plenty of ammo dry.

I will probably hit the MJBiz Con in Vegas next year. Meeting these operators face to face is invaluable.

In the meantime, the market outside of cannabis is providing ample opportunities to bank coin. The reflation trade is on. Markets outside the US are finally showing a pulse.
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Oh yeah, no need to feel rushed to pick the winners now. As much as I feel the winners have separated themselves from the pack far quicker than I would have ever guessed, there's still plenty of risk involved long-term. Being profitable as early as Q1 or Q2 of 2020 while looking at a 500m-1b run rate would be one way to truly separate yourself especially with these capital constraints. And at these levels, you have some of these names at a 1.5b market cap. CURA's at about a 3.5b cap but they're monsters and are legitimately likely to pull in a billion in 2020 + be profitable as early as next quarter. If long, I don't hate any of the top 3-4 at these levels. And that includes Trulieve, so good pick there.

If you notice, shorts ease up big time leading up to MSO earning season. They know they blow LPs away and almost always go on a bit of a run. After the aura disappears (2-3 weeks later) shorts latch right back on and the dump continues. Kind of the opposite of LPs who almost always disappoint in earning season. Fundamentals for MSOs just don't really matter when the sector is this disastrous. And by the time they do start mattering.. Who knows what state these leading MSOs are even in. Lots can change really fucking quickly.

So yeah, as you said, the sector is dead right now. No need to chase.
 
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I've got a decent position in GTII, CURA, TRUL and CRESCO. Once the sentiment clears, they will catch a short term FOMO bid.

It won't be like peak Canada parabolic, but it will be juicy. Sentiment turning is a hard thing to time, but it's an immense factor. People who hate these stocks now, will want to pay up later.

As an aside, look at AAPL. Biggest and most analyzed company in the world. Up 77% year to date. Why? Absolutely nothing in their business changed. The best analysts nailed their earnings down to the penny. The only thing thing they couldn't forecast? Forward P/E for AAPL is up 70% from last year.

The business itself hasn't changed, but what people are willing to pay for it has rocketed.

Right now, as you said, nobody cares about CURA or GTII's profitability. That's when you know sentiment is offside.
 
I would say that those four names you picked would have to fuck up real good to never justify current valuations. They're on a path that quite literally no one comes close to at the moment. Sentiment shifts quickly as you said. Either have to be patient and hold or wait for a trend change and accept that you'll miss out on some gains (CSE stocks move real fuckin fast).
 
The good news is that while sentiment can always go lower, it seems quite stretched to the downside.

It's the opposite of the Big Short. Christian Bale staring into the abyss while the housing bubble keeps getting frothier and clients abandon him.
 
CH1 said:
The good news is that while sentiment can always go lower, it seems quite stretched to the downside.

It's the opposite of the Big Short. Christian Bale staring into the abyss while the housing bubble keeps getting frothier and clients abandon him.
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Oh yeah upside right now is far greater than the downside. Could take a other year for all we know but we know it's coming eventually.

Would love to see them get off that piece of sht exchange though. Tax loss harvesting is never a good time on the CSE.
 
It's pretty ironic that the only companies allowed to list in the major US markets are Canadian. (Canopy, Hexo, Organigram, Aurora, Aphria, etc).
All have underdelivered, furthering the negative sentiment.

It'd be like if Blackberry was allowed to list on NASDAQ but AAPL was strictly over the counter.
 

Curaleaf Holdings, Inc. Announces New $275 Million Senior Secured Term Loan Facility

/PRNewswire/ -- Curaleaf Holdings, Inc. (CSE: CURA) (OTCQX: CURLF) ("Curaleaf" or the "Company"), a leading vertically integrated cannabis operator in the...
www.prnewswire.com www.prnewswire.com

Terms are obviously trash, but when compared with other operators this is shockingly great for Curaleaf. These are far better terms than we've seen from any MSO and this is during a time where the capital crunch is at its worst. Being nearly profitable and generating that kind of revenue clearly showing its value. These top tier MSOs have a huge advantage over the pile of shit MSOs and the more SAFE gets delayed, the wider the gap will become.

Oh and Green Thumb continues to open stores.. They have a shit ton of licenses that they won that haven't even been touched yet. Essentially nearly free expansion. Potential for further revenue is through the roof. They also have a strong cash position and this Curaleaf deal makes it likely they can pull off something similar if needed (it probably will be needed by early-mid 2020. I think all of these guys need to continue to build out fairly aggressively. Costs will continue to be high for the short-term but they'll be laughing in a few years.
 
Yeah. That was solid news. High interest but no *****ing dilution. Let's see if the stock can hold onto it's pre-opening boner.
 
CH1 said:
Yeah. That was solid news. High interest but no *****ing dilution. Let's see if the stock can hold onto it's pre-opening boner.
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The unlock coming up late December kinda has me a bit worried. I scaled out significantly in the low 8's the other week for that reason - seems like they all go week leading up to these unlocks. But this is the kind of news that can change things, and if the rest of the sector has a good day and good run, it will change things.

And keep an eye on CGC today. I'm noticing abnormally high bid sizes on WEED. Last time I saw something like this, they did like 12%. Doesn't mean it'll happen again but it's definitely something to keep an eye on. What better time for whales to get a short squeeze on on a Friday before Christmas week? Lots of puts expiring today too...


EDIT: That last part was always a dream, wasn't it? Haha
 
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I got my eye on CGC as well. I'd like to see it hold yesterday's low (19.45 on the US side)
 
I just bought some CGC calls 21C expiring next week for 18cents. Good r/r. If I get stopped out at my level, I'll lose a few pennies.
 
So, question for you peeps. My father is looking to invest about $150K after selling my late grandmothers house. He's the most interested in capital preservation and a monthly income. He's retired. I'm thinking Dividend ETFs that pay out monthly. Any suggestions? He's met with a financial advisor already, but hasn't made any decisions as of yet.
 
Tough question to answer but generally speaking, ETFs are good, but personally I'd buy a basket of uncorrelated ETFS.

Look at ETFS that represent Emerging Markets and Europe (both those regions have a lot of catching up to do) and mix in some uncorrelated ETFS (ie bonds, metals) to round out your basket.
 
For example, one of my recent winners is EUFN (iShares MSCI Europe Financials ETF)

It's been depressed for yrs. Seems to have double bottomed in September. Dividend is 5.26%


chart.ashx
 
For a small group of guys, pretty smart bunch I have to say. Me? Not all that smart even though I skipped two years of public school. But I am buying the shit out of MOTA and holding my HOLL.

I think HOLL could double from here. If it does HOLL will double plus. Related group.
 
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