LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
Also, CH1, you should know that if I pose a question in this thread without naming you, it is actually intended for you.
What's up with Ebay in your estimation?
What's up with Ebay in your estimation?
Hey Nerds: Blockchain
- Thread starter zeke
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Preston
MBow30 alt account
Risk management. I have a set amount of capital in MJ. When I make a play on a laggard I derisk elsewhere. I would've rebought higher if I had to. I follow these names enough that there's very little risk in those plays. I do it enough times and the savings add up. Base hits.
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
I have no idea... all I can think of is that it’s unloved (and hence might not be a bad buy here)
back in the day, it was one of the few ways to play e-commerce.... now you got SHOP, ETSY, CHWY, etc etc etc
all these shiny specialty online market places make EBay look like a dusty garage sale
the company is very profitable tho, and is up 47% year to date, so it’s kept up with the broader tech market (qqq is up 46% YTD)
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
yeah, you have an edge with zigging and zagging pot stocks. I mostly buy and hold these names but zig/zag plenty of other stuff
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
How does this practice apply to a sale and purchase on the same day? If it went higher and you rebought, wouldn’t that defeat your purpose?
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
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Hypergrowers can be difficult to value. But understanding where they see opportunities for gains is a start.
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Preston
MBow30 alt account
The purpose was to make a play on another weed stock name (CL) that was beaten down a lot more than the others. They all act fairly similarly. Trulieve was very green at the time. My thought process:
1. I only want a set amount in MJ at all times, so if I make a play on CL, the rule is to sell TRUL. Once I sell the additional CL I can buy TRUL again. If TRUL is more expensive, so be it. And if anything, if TRUL went up from there the odds of my CL play crushing it was very high. So if I crushed my CL play, buying TRUL a little higher was something I was happy to do. In other words if TRUL went up from where I sold it, CL would've done even better. Not a hard rule but it's about playing the odds. And the odds on these plays are very very strong.
2. When I do these plays it's also because one of two things are likely to happen: CL will catch up
to TRUL and I'm looking at a very green play. Or TRUL will catch up to CL. In that case I may not win on CL but I'd gladly sell cl for a small loss or break even to buy TRUL 3+% cheaper.
The other aspect is, the floor is a base hit. But cl has been lagging behind for weeks, despite still being correlated to the others (bearish correlation). The upside is a grand slam where it breaks out in a major way. I'll keep trying until I get the grand slam.
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
Think of it this way (and Presto can correct me if i'm wrong)
Presto behaves like a classic buy n hold investor in his RRSP (with long term holds like VTI) but behaves like a hedge fund in his TFSA (or wherever he trades his pot stocks). Like a hedge fund, he's constantly trying to outperform the overall cannabis market by pouncing on short term arbitrage opportunities. His aim is to maximize the asset value for his clients (in this case he's the only client)
Ironically, I'm the opposite with cannabis, and cannabis has now become half my RRSP value. The other half is mostly high growth darlings (ROKU, PINS, PTON, DKNG, NVTA, etc) and resources (TECK, GLD, etc). Like you (LOF), I would be terrified of not owning some TRUL for even a day (though I will occasionally trim/add to the position). I don't have a ceiling for max value in any of my RRSP holdings, including pot.
I act like a hedge fund when it comes to option plays and index futures (SPX, NAZ, etc).
Preston
MBow30 alt account
Correct. Admittedly since the introduction of MSOs ETF the sector has traded differently so I've had to adjust (I don't think it's a coincidence that things have changed since then!). But I've outperformed the market for years now. If I didn't I definitely wouldn't even bother with this strategy. Of course I only do it with the big boy names since they're more predictable.
Rest of my accounts are boring buy and holders.
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
Haha. I agree with him but Tesla is only a step or two above it.
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
Just a healthy pullback (remember those?) which was due even without a virus mutation. The markets have pretty much gone straight up since positive news from Pfizer months ago; that was an extreme move, and hey, the expected STIMULUS finally showed up but was pretty modest and may have been sold anyway.
Should make for a fun trading environment but I'm all hands on deck on another project until Wednesday.
Long term folio has been raising cash and I have a nice slug of puts in SPY and SMH.
Should make for a fun trading environment but I'm all hands on deck on another project until Wednesday.
Long term folio has been raising cash and I have a nice slug of puts in SPY and SMH.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
Definitely healthy in the absence of the news. And it was a lot worse made I made that post. Recovered bigly.
But the news is pretty dire and I'm not sure if the market will be able to price it in until we start seeing real-time impacts of it in the US. Shades of February.
But the news is pretty dire and I'm not sure if the market will be able to price it in until we start seeing real-time impacts of it in the US. Shades of February.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
Scaled out of my Cresco on open at 12.89. Still relatively heavy on them but needed to take the opportunity to exit when she was basically flat on the day. Cashed up and comfortable with my current positions heading into uncertain times. There's a good chance that the vaccines wipe out any of these concerns before they become a threat to America or even Canada, but there's also a non zero chance that the variant is somewhat resistant to the vaccines. That would be absolutely catastrophic for a market that has been running based on pricing in a post-vaccinated world.
I do think that if MSOs crater, the downside will be heavier on TRUL, GTII and CURA. They're holding very strong so far... Just... Again... I don't like uncertainty. Plus the charts across the board (broad market, MJ sector, etc) need a big time breather.
I do think that if MSOs crater, the downside will be heavier on TRUL, GTII and CURA. They're holding very strong so far... Just... Again... I don't like uncertainty. Plus the charts across the board (broad market, MJ sector, etc) need a big time breather.