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Leafs - Sens - Habs 2013-14

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A complete meltdown.

At least the Sens knew their fate by December 1st.

But the Leafs, buoyed by an inflated record due to shootouts, took alot longer to level back out.
 
"I know we are gonna try to get into contract talks right away, because none of really want to delay anything if we could get it done that would be ideal and if we can that would be great because they know i am committed to the team and the structure going forward". - Bobby Ryan
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Good stuff. Good stuff.
 
corksens said:
A complete meltdown.

At least the Sens knew their fate by December 1st.

But the Leafs, buoyed by an inflated record due to shootouts, took alot longer to level back out.
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I choose to believe that you don't really believe what you write. If you did I'd have to look at you like Vladimir Putin.
 
Habsy said:
I choose to believe that you don't really believe what you write. If you did I'd have to look at you like Vladimir Putin.
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What's the problem with what I wrote?

The Sens and Leafs had a similar ROW record for most of the season (+/-) a few. Winning a bunch of shootouts made that record look better than it was.

It was only a matter of time for those numbers to yield out a similar position at the years end.
 
corksens said:
What's the problem with what I wrote?

The Sens and Leafs had a similar ROW record for most of the season (+/-) a few. Winning a bunch of shootouts made that record look better than it was.

It was only a matter of time for those numbers to yield out a similar position at the years end.
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yeah, you totally knew the Leafs would be way ahead of you mid March. of course. you knew they would then lose 10 of 12 in regulation, of course.
 
wouldn't the regression have been some extra OT/SO losses, though?

You can say the Leafs style of play caught up to them in the end. To paint this as some sort of regression is silly, though. If the Leafs get a few extra loser points late in the year they probably would be in the playoffs.
 
Besides, very few expected the Leafs to be anything better than a bubble team anyway. I did think they would be better than this because of the special teams we had last season and acquiring Bernier, but we're still only talking one of the bottom seeds here.

meanwhile the sens had the best goaltending tandem in the division, the best player in hockey in Karlsson, an elite shutdown tandem in Methot and Cowen, etc etc etc
 
mbow30 said:
wouldn't the regression have been some extra OT/SO losses, though?

You can say the Leafs style of play caught up to them in the end. To paint this as some sort of regression is silly, though. If the Leafs get a few extra loser points late in the year they probably would be in the playoffs.
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I don't think anything caught up to them, other than perhaps their lack of experience. If Bernier doesn't get hurt we're in.
 
They probably steal a couple of those games late in the year and make it.

But I do think that the 40 shots against/game took its toll. You can't give up the volume of shots this team surrendered and win.
 
mbow30 said:
They probably steal a couple of those games late in the year and make it.

But I do think that the 40 shots against/game took its toll. You can't give up the volume of shots this team surrendered and win.
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Of course it took its toll. the Leafs probably would have been slaughtered in a playoff series, simply due to unforced errors alone.

but we're just talking about making the second wildcard spot, at minimum. I say we definitely do that if Bernier could withstand the barrage another couple weeks.
 
The luck thing is overstated. Looking at the Leafs' PDO (luck) chart they were below average from December through January, peaked from mid-January to early March and then took a precipitous decline in March to April. In face, with average "luck" the Toronto Maple Leafs are in a playoff seed at the moment.

http://www.extraskater.com/team/toronto-maple-leafs/2013

You don't want to get too much into the analytics stuff without throwing the eyeball test in there as well, but the team has been brutally outshot in far too many games.
Attribute that to whatever. Franson serves up more pizza than your average take-out place each game and Phaneuf's icetime has varied a lot and that hasn't helped him.
Carlyle also has given far too much icetime to McSelke & co. too, which hasn't helped anything.

This isn't a team in need of a blowup as there are some nice pieces here. Another top 4 D, a new coach and launching Clarkson into space might all be good ideas though...
 
"luck" to the analytics crowd is SH% and SV% which because they only look from the top down instead of bottom up (focusing on team name instead of team player composition) isn't predictable from year to year (though players themselves are usually very consistent).

Most of us would refer to that as skill.
 
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