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Magic Number Thread

Rolex said:
Slowly backing into the Cup
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real definition of backing in, Sweden went 0-2-4 in world cup qualifying but got to playoff by their winning a group in Nations League C (for teams 29 and lower in Europe), they won their two playoff games and are in the world cup
 
GrandWazoo said:
We're at 3%
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This percentage is way too low, this website rates our wins as flukes due to the expected goals % or something. I think our "power ranking" went down today, after we beat TB on the road, because we did it while being greatly outshot.
 
Hoiles said:
This percentage is way too low, this website rates our wins as flukes due to the expected goals % or something. I think our "power ranking" went down today, after we beat TB on the road, because we did it while being greatly outshot.
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Yes, scoring chances differential is the main factor that brings us down in their model. With our defense, we're not exactly nerdies' favorite.
 
GrandWazoo said:
Yes, scoring chances differential is the main factor that brings us down in their model. With our defense, we're not exactly nerdies' favorite.
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it has been better than last 8 games though for sure. We have only given up more than 2 goals with a goalie in the net once in the last 8 games. You are right though, our previous defensive records hurts us odds wise
 
GrandWazoo said:
Yes, scoring chances differential is the main factor that brings us down in their model. With our defense, we're not exactly nerdies' favorite.
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Do we know if they reweigh for recency?

Coz momentum is a thing. Assigning equal weights to games in November would be dumb.
 
I could have sworn the moneypuck ranking was 11th or 12th yesterday and is 13th today after a huge win. Among other things, their predictions probably assume Caufield is really a 30 goal scorer instead a 47 goal scorer. The Habs may not be “top contenders” as their current performance indicates, but it’s more due to the inexperience/size factor than their wins being fluky as the model suggests.
 
Hoiles said:
I could have sworn the moneypuck ranking was 11th or 12th yesterday and is 13th today after a huge win. Among other things, their predictions probably assume Caufield is really a 30 goal scorer instead a 47 goal scorer. The Habs may not be “top contenders” as their current performance indicates, but it’s more due to the inexperience/size factor than their wins being fluky as the model suggests.
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One thing about regression models…

Garbage in garbage out.
 
Hoiles said:
I could have sworn the moneypuck ranking was 11th or 12th yesterday and is 13th today after a huge win. Among other things, their predictions probably assume Caufield is really a 30 goal scorer instead a 47 goal scorer. The Habs may not be “top contenders” as their current performance indicates, but it’s more due to the inexperience/size factor than their wins being fluky as the model suggests.
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playoffs are different beast , lets see if we can win a round
 
Sal_Butera said:
I’m interested in watching what the young players got from last years experience..
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Yup , plus if goalies are ready under pressure

I dont put too much emphasis on experience

Playoffs are a short series and nobody knows how anyone produces

Are your goal scorers going to produce , goalies making key saves

Typically its your role players who make up the difference , the " Pisani Syndrome "

There are no easy match ups , and every shift the intensity is ramped up .
 
There are profound psychological factors that are hard to evaluate.

Consider Cam Ward in 2006. 🫤

Or the St. Louis Blues…
 
I could be proven to be totally wrong but the Lightning are giving me a 1979-80 Habs vibe. Still a very good team, great season . . . but a sense that the end of their run is approaching.
 
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lecoqsportif said:
There are profound psychological factors that are hard to evaluate.

Consider Cam Ward in 2006. 🫤

Or the St. Louis Blues…
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the Blues is a one in a million event

Dead last by Christmas and a zero % playoff odds

Go ape shit for 50 games and win a cup with ROR playing like Crosby and role players scoring big goals

I wouldnt be surprised to see Dobes or Fowler giving us a Roy moment or team shitting the bed offensively

Thats the mystery of the playoffs
 
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