Habsy
Not playing around anymore.
Ted Kaczynski was a brilliant man, just went a tad too far.
OT: American Politics
- Thread starter MindzEye
- Start date
Ted Kaczynski was a brilliant man, just went a tad too far.
zeke
Well-known member
No, I'm not kidding.
No need for air quotes - worker participation is included in that U6 number.
Habsy
Not playing around anymore.
And should worker participation go down, what happens to the U6 rate?
Habsy
Not playing around anymore.
The reduced .2% is directly due to worker participation reduction and not job creation.
So am I to assume you believe this was a good job report for August?
How about the revised numbers for June and July that reduced the new jobs by 40,000? That good news too?
So am I to assume you believe this was a good job report for August?
How about the revised numbers for June and July that reduced the new jobs by 40,000? That good news too?
zeke
Well-known member
You keep talking about the U3 fall from 8.3 to 8.1%.
I'm talking about U6. U6 (and U5 and U4) don't discount discouraged workers like U3 does, but includes them as unemployed.
http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u5.jsp
U1:
This is the proportion of the civilian labor force that has been unemployed for 15 weeks or longer. This unemployment rate measures workers who are chronically unemployed. During business-cycle expansions, this rate captures structural unemployment. However, during lengthy business-cycle contractions, this rate is also likely to include a significant amount of cyclical unemployment. U1 tends to be relatively small, in the range of 1-2 percent.
U2:
This is the proportion of the civilian labor force that is classified as job losers (workers who have been involuntarily fired or laid off from their jobs) and people who have completed temporary jobs. During business-cycle expansions, this rate is likely to capture some degree of frictional unemployment. However, during business-cycle contractions, this rate is most likely to consist of cyclical unemployment. U2 is larger than U1, but still remains substantially less than the official unemployment rate (U3).
U3:
This is the official unemployment rate, which is the proportion of the civilian labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment.
U4:
This is the official unemployment rate that is adjusted for discouraged workers. In other words, discouraged workers are treated just like other workers who are officially classified as unemployed, being included in both the ranks of the unemployed and the labor force. It is technically specified as the proportion of the civilian labor force (plus discouraged workers) that is either unemployed but actively seeking employment or discouraged workers. The addition of discouraged workers generally adds a few tenths of a percentage point to the official unemployment rate.
U5:
This augments U4 by including marginally-attached workers to the unemployment rate calculation. Marginally attached workers are potential workers who have given up seeking employment for various reasons. One of these reasons is that the workers believe such effort would be futile, which places them in the discouraged worker category. Those who have other reasons for not seeking employment are placed in the broader marginally-attached workers category. The addition of marginally-attached workers adds a few more tenths of a percentage point to the official unemployment rate.
U6:
This augments U5 by including part-time workers to the unemployment rate calculation. The addition of part-time workers adds a full 2-3 percentage points to the official unemployment rate. This measure of unemployment is perhaps the most comprehensive measure of labor resource unemployment available.
I'm talking about U6. U6 (and U5 and U4) don't discount discouraged workers like U3 does, but includes them as unemployed.
http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u5.jsp
U1:
This is the proportion of the civilian labor force that has been unemployed for 15 weeks or longer. This unemployment rate measures workers who are chronically unemployed. During business-cycle expansions, this rate captures structural unemployment. However, during lengthy business-cycle contractions, this rate is also likely to include a significant amount of cyclical unemployment. U1 tends to be relatively small, in the range of 1-2 percent.
U2:
This is the proportion of the civilian labor force that is classified as job losers (workers who have been involuntarily fired or laid off from their jobs) and people who have completed temporary jobs. During business-cycle expansions, this rate is likely to capture some degree of frictional unemployment. However, during business-cycle contractions, this rate is most likely to consist of cyclical unemployment. U2 is larger than U1, but still remains substantially less than the official unemployment rate (U3).
U3:
This is the official unemployment rate, which is the proportion of the civilian labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment.
U4:
This is the official unemployment rate that is adjusted for discouraged workers. In other words, discouraged workers are treated just like other workers who are officially classified as unemployed, being included in both the ranks of the unemployed and the labor force. It is technically specified as the proportion of the civilian labor force (plus discouraged workers) that is either unemployed but actively seeking employment or discouraged workers. The addition of discouraged workers generally adds a few tenths of a percentage point to the official unemployment rate.
U5:
This augments U4 by including marginally-attached workers to the unemployment rate calculation. Marginally attached workers are potential workers who have given up seeking employment for various reasons. One of these reasons is that the workers believe such effort would be futile, which places them in the discouraged worker category. Those who have other reasons for not seeking employment are placed in the broader marginally-attached workers category. The addition of marginally-attached workers adds a few more tenths of a percentage point to the official unemployment rate.
U6:
This augments U5 by including part-time workers to the unemployment rate calculation. The addition of part-time workers adds a full 2-3 percentage points to the official unemployment rate. This measure of unemployment is perhaps the most comprehensive measure of labor resource unemployment available.
Habsy
Not playing around anymore.
You're spinning the report zeke. U3 or U6 aside, August was not a good month at all and June and July were revised downward.
The only good news for Obama is that the report will probably not effect anything as most people have already discounted the shitty economy in their decision making.
The only good news for Obama is that the report will probably not effect anything as most people have already discounted the shitty economy in their decision making.
zeke
Well-known member
well, he was in charge for about 10 days of that 14.2 month.
Habsy
Not playing around anymore.
You referred to the U6 here when I was clearly talking about the U3.
Habsy
Not playing around anymore.
It's still not a great improvement for ~ 4 years. They will try and wag the dog elsewhere, they do not want to talk about these numbers.
Habsy
Not playing around anymore.
What's Bernanke to do? Print more money? All that does at this point is make the rich richer. The market is not this high because of confidence in the economy, it's this high because of cheap money. The more cheap money the Fed makes available the more it benefits the rich, not the poor. Exactly against what Obama is preaching.
zeke
Well-known member
well, you attacked my numbers - I just pointed out that your criticism of the U3 rate was addressed in the U6 rate that I posted alongside it.
Re: OT: Canadian Politics
It was quite comical actually. Our rep sent out a note stating that the union was working hard to make sure that Dalton was re-elected and that the Liberals would look after our interests. It was made clear that we should put our personal opinions aside, do our part and vote for the Liberal candidates in our area to protect our asses.
I sent the rep a private email telling him that the shit storm was coming no matter who was in power and that I would vote for whatever party I thought would do the best job for all the residents of Ontario in the short term and that would leave the province in the best shape possible for my children.
When the rep showed up in my office yesterday to discuss the current situation I had to stifle the urge to laugh in his face.
It was quite comical actually. Our rep sent out a note stating that the union was working hard to make sure that Dalton was re-elected and that the Liberals would look after our interests. It was made clear that we should put our personal opinions aside, do our part and vote for the Liberal candidates in our area to protect our asses.
I sent the rep a private email telling him that the shit storm was coming no matter who was in power and that I would vote for whatever party I thought would do the best job for all the residents of Ontario in the short term and that would leave the province in the best shape possible for my children.
When the rep showed up in my office yesterday to discuss the current situation I had to stifle the urge to laugh in his face.
zeke
Well-known member
I don't like the "employment number skepticism" in general that we see - the factors that many complain about that make the U3 number possibly inaccurate are still measured, and included in other numbers. We don't have to throw our arms up in the air as if we don't know the real numbers. The popular public unemployment number isn't the only thing they look at.