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OT: Coronavirus Resources - and other things to not worry about

Preston said:
I think these models assume fully open. Not sure why. We aren't fully open.


But the numbers will definitely be spiking dramatically soon. Lotta countries around the world have had serious issues with this variant. Seems like US is almost out of trouble as they're vaccinating their way out of it. We're not at that point. Israel just barely started beating it after like half the country was vaccinated. It's a bit scary to see the variant uptick dramatically in a few countries in Europe. Believe Ontario is close to 50% of the variant at this point. It's growing rapidly. Eventually it'll be the only variant and it obviously won't stop growing rapidly.

Not to mention, the variant is more deadly too. Good thing we are getting the most vulnerable vaccinated because it could get ugly.
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and damn upper and lower canadians are now likely to bring the variant into our little maritime haven too
 
Preston said:
I think these models assume fully open. Not sure why. We aren't fully open.


But the numbers will definitely be spiking dramatically soon. Lotta countries around the world have had serious issues with this variant. Seems like US is almost out of trouble as they're vaccinating their way out of it. We're not at that point. Israel just barely started beating it after like half the country was vaccinated. It's a bit scary to see the variant uptick dramatically in a few countries in Europe. Believe Ontario is close to 50% of the variant at this point. It's growing rapidly. Eventually it'll be the only variant and it obviously won't stop growing rapidly.

Not to mention, the variant is more deadly too. Good thing we are getting the most vulnerable vaccinated because it could get ugly.
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I see this mentioned that the variant is 50%...but the numbers are completely out to lunch from this, or at least poorly understood by myself.

Today I see 35 UK variants confirmed. 7 day average is 45 per day.

We had over 1000 positive cases today. Can you explain for me how they figure the variant is at 50%. I can't find an answer out here in the wilderness.
 
SundinsTooth said:
I see this mentioned that the variant is 50%...but the numbers are completely out to lunch from this, or at least poorly understood by myself.

Today I see 35 UK variants confirmed. 7 day average is 45 per day.

We had over 1000 positive cases today. Can you explain for me how they figure the variant is at 50%. I can't find an answer out here in the wilderness.
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my guess is they are making assumptions because i do not think they test everybody for them so they do some samples and project those numbers

if they are testing 90 people for variants and 45 are variants the assume that means it holds elsewhere at that 50% rate
 
worm said:
my guess is they are making assumptions because i do not think they test everybody for them so they do some samples and project those numbers

if they are testing 90 people for variants and 45 are variants the assume that means it holds elsewhere at that 50% rate
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I hear all pos were getting sequenced....
 
Right now the estimate is that the UK variant takes up 42% of the cases in Ontario. In Toronto I believe I read it's closer to 50% or above.

R(t) for UK variant is 1.24 in Ontario right now. For the original variant R(t) is 0.90. For reference, anything over 1.0 and it spreads like wildfire. 1.24 is bad.

covid19-sciencetable.ca

Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table Science Briefs Archive | Institute of Health Emergencies and Pandemics

During the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Government of Ontario formed the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table, a group of scientific experts and health system leaders who evaluated and reported on emerging evidence relevant to the COVID-19 pandemic, to inform Ontario’s response. The...
covid19-sciencetable.ca covid19-sciencetable.ca
 
SundinsTooth said:
News can't get it straight then.

So much fucking information. Who to trust?

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coron...reality-of-variant-spread-in-canada-1.5307155

They mention that they are screening all positives...maybe my use of the word sequencing was ill-timed....
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Ohhh yeah I misunderstood what you meant by sequencing (got it confused with sequencing every case to look for new variants which is not something Canada has much capacity for.. too many words making my brain go fuzzy). Yeah, the issue is that there is a 3 week delay on getting the results back so we're still seeing numbers from February. The government was confident enough to put out the data in that site I posted though. Based on the way it has been growing, they're estimating 42% right now. Exponential growth is a bitch.
 
worm said:
we are at 9% variants in AB
hoping we can limit that with vaccines and spring
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Yeah, but so much is opening back up right now. Last weekend was walking down 17th in Calgary and so many bars and restaurants have basically all their tables full...
 
Vaccines being around the corner is going to make everyone pretty complacent but we're not out of the woods yet, think these variants are going to spread a lot faster than we can get to herd immunity. Glad my MAGA fam had a party this past weekend!
 
UWHabs said:
Yeah, but so much is opening back up right now. Last weekend was walking down 17th in Calgary and so many bars and restaurants have basically all their tables full...
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That isn't really a new thing though. Hasn't it been a month or so of this?

Plus still not allowed in those places outside of household (I'm sure it isn't enforced).

St Patrick's day and Easter coming up.
 
I mean this is consistent with other jurisdictions, where B117 quickly becomes the dominant strain. Not sure why we would expect things to go any differently here.
 
Never forget the economist had the US finishing up late this year and us by spring or summer 2022. Their proof was that they had the best sources ever that supply won't be very plentiful. Huge egg on their face.
 
Preston said:
Never forget the economist had the US finishing up late this year and us by spring or summer 2022. Their proof was that they had the best sources ever that supply won't be very plentiful. Huge egg on their face.
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you can use kids as a mulligan though :p
 
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