CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
OK, but that part's bullshit. He didn't just find out ICU capacity was in jeopardy because of variants YESTERDAY.
OK, but that part's bullshit. He didn't just find out ICU capacity was in jeopardy because of variants YESTERDAY.
Lotta scientists promote this approach. I highly doubt this was Dougie's plan since many smarter people have been calling for it. with some on his vaccine task force. Highest risk is age; 50, 60+ and that is largely done. Common thought is for next step to limit spread by vaccinating the group who transmit the virus the most, which indirectly protects everyone.Vaccinating 18 year olds over people with high risk conditions seems silly.
His strategy is about votes not science.
These two things actually seem pretty big.
Thread on P.1 (and probably really really good news):
TLDR:
P.1 might be deadlier but it looks like it is not as transmissive as B.1.1.7 which we know vaccines work GREAT on. Great news.
not if the people with conditions are refusing to book appointments.Vaccinating 18 year olds over people with high risk conditions seems silly.
His strategy is about votes not science.
"Outcompetes" implies that it is more transmissive than P.1. Most transmissive variant wins and survives until we're all vaccinated, and then some other factors like immunity escape become more important as well. A virus will always look for an advantage to survive the longest and spread the most and right now it's transmissibility leading the charge as the most important factor.so that was not my takeaway. my takeaway was that when both P1 and B117 are present, B117 'outcompetes' P1. basically the presence of B117 anywhere makes it less likely to have widespread P1 in that same place. but I'm not a scientist.
I'm sure you'll find some scientists who disagree but the approach is 100% based in science. Not a lot of countries have had the balls to listen to their scientists with something strategic like this so I'm actually kinda impressed that we're going off the board here.not if the people with conditions are refusing to book appointments.
I mean I appreciate the concern but my impression is that supply is badly outpacing demand. if true, then this strategy makes sense.
of course, the other issue you could raise is why there is seemingly a lack of a plan or infrastructure for the vaccination campaign when they had so long to prepare for it.
The fact that one is more transmissive than the other just means that if a population is taking action to limit spread of the more transmissive variant, those actions will likely result in even greater reduction of the less transmissive variant. Much like all of the preventative measures we've been taking for the last year led to the easiest flu season in memory. I don't see this as especially great news beyond the fact that if we can keep B.1.1.7 in check (TBD), we can also control the others."Outcompetes" implies that it is more transmissive than P.1. Most transmissive variant wins and survives until we're all vaccinated, and then some other factors like immunity escape become more important as well. A virus will always look for an advantage to survive the longest and spread the most and right now it's transmissibility leading the charge as the most important factor.
Kinda explains why B.1.1.7 has basically become the predominant strain in the world. Which is lucky since current vaccines work great on it. P.1 does have some additional immunity escaping properties so it would suck of it outcompeted B117 but I'm sure we'll be in for some more surprises at some point.
It's great news because there were fears that P.1 was more transmissive. That would be bad for a number of reasons:The fact that one is more transmissive than the other just means that if a population is taking action to limit spread of the more transmissive variant, those actions will likely result in even greater reduction of the less transmissive variant. Much like all of the preventative measures we've been taking for the last year led to the easiest flu season in memory. I don't see this as especially great news beyond the fact that if we can keep B.1.1.7 in check (TBD), we can also control the others.
Agreed, it would be worse if P.1 was more transmissive. It will also continue to spread unless we take sufficient preventative measures, regardless of the presence of a more transmissive variant.It's great news because there were fears that P.1 was more transmissive. That would be bad for a number of reasons:
1. We can't even keep B.1.1.7 in check. A more transmissive variant that would eventually take over would be a disaster
2. P.1 appears to be more deadly and serious for younger people. That is unconfirmed and any studies done so far are not yet peer reviewed so I'm not fully on board with the fear mongering with that point.
2. We know that P.1 escapes immunity far better than B.1.1.7. Vaccines simply won't work as well on them. We have seen B.1.1.7 contained very well in Israel with just 52% of the country fully vaccinated so we know it is possible.
If our biggest threat is a variant that our current vaccines work very well on, this is good news.
Holy **** that's big
Not really spreading though. It has an advantage over the original strain which is why we're seeing it take over certain parts of the world where B117 is less present, but that original strain is slowly being wiped off the map. Most transmissive variant wins and takes over all others long-term.Agreed, it would be worse if P.1 was more transmissive. It will also continue to spread unless we take sufficient preventative measures, regardless of the presence of a more transmissive variant.
It's going to be infuriating when we just vote him in again.