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OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

Over 300 IP at AAA Corey Kluber had a 4.69 ERA, 8.7 K/9 and a 3.8 BB/9......this year over 150 IP he has a 2.77 ERA, 9.8 K/9 and a 1.99 BB/9.


Some guys are better in the majors than they ever were in the minors.
 
zeke said:
I don't think i am at all.

The numbers made it clear to me that guys like stro and hutch were underrated prospects, and guys like drabek and wallace were overrated. In fact drabek was te last straw for me....i let the "scouts" convince me he was a good prospect despite the stats screaming at me that he wasn't. That's the last time i let scouts tell me that magic arms can overcome years of troubling stats.

For all the talk from guys like Tabler about some players being better in mlb than they were in milb, that's really a bunch of bs. It doesn't really happen.
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There's tons of examples of pitchers with fantastic statistical profiles in the minors being beat to shit as soon as they reach the show though as well. Sounds like you just got really sensitive about a small sample size of players. The scouting services (BA/BP) have a pretty excellent track record when you consider the overall volatility of MLB prospects. Some pretty interesting studies have been generated that show a pretty linear average career WAR based on a prospects highest ranking in the BA top 100.

The value in a prospect that makes it isn't just the runs/wins they generate, but how cheaply they do it. There's insane value in a young, cheap 2 WAR MLB player. As soon as he's making market rate or close, a whole hell of a lot less. That's what you're rolling the dice on when you hang onto a prospect, the potential of him being really cheap while being good. Some will hit, some will miss. You can't kick yourself every time one of them misses, just worry about loading your system continually so that it's always producing something cheap.
 
Montana said:
Over 300 IP at AAA Corey Kluber had a 4.69 ERA, 8.7 K/9 and a 3.8 BB/9......this year over 150 IP he has a 2.77 ERA, 9.8 K/9 and a 1.99 BB/9.


Some guys are better in the majors than they ever were in the minors.
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Yep. Like I said, the organizations don't really give a **** about maximizing a prospects minor league numbers. They're trying to set him up to be successful in the majors. If that means that they've got him throwing his shitty change up 20-30 times a game, so be it, the mother****er needs to learn to use it if he's going to do anything in the show.
 
MindzEye said:
There's tons of examples of pitchers with fantastic statistical profiles in the minors being beat to shit as soon as they reach the show though as well. Sounds like you just got really sensitive about a small sample size of players.
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Of course there are. Most prospects bust. Most GOOD prospects bust.

The stats are a minimum standard of qualification, nothing more.
 
zeke said:
Of course there are. Most prospects bust. Most GOOD prospects bust.

The stats are a minimum standard of qualification, nothing more.
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Except...lots of really good MLB'ers never meet those "minimum standards of qualification"
 
MindzEye said:
Yep. Like I said, the organizations don't really give a **** about maximizing a prospects minor league numbers. They're trying to set him up to be successful in the majors. If that means that they've got him throwing his shitty change up 20-30 times a game, so be it, the mother****er needs to learn to use it if he's going to do anything in the show.
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Yup.

I have thought myself that the parallel between Sanchez and Drabek's lack of command is troubling, but the fact remains that you can't write off every single pitching prospect in the league because they might fail. Some guys do figure it out. Have to remember how young they are, and as M.E. said often they are working on things and the #'s can be misleading.
 
Montana said:
Over 300 IP at AAA Corey Kluber had a 4.69 ERA, 8.7 K/9 and a 3.8 BB/9......this year over 150 IP he has a 2.77 ERA, 9.8 K/9 and a 1.99 BB/9.


Some guys are better in the majors than they ever were in the minors.
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There are always outliers, but looking at his numbers i'm not sure kluber qualifies.

Kluber seems to have had a steady record of stumbling in his first try at every level, and then dominating after adjusting.

A

1st yr: 8.9k/9, 4.1bb/9, 3.51era, 3.64fip
2nd yr: 11.6k/9, 2.1bb/9, 3.21era, 3.59fip

A+

1st yr: 7.9k/9, 3.6bb/9, 6.01era, 4.66fip
2nd yr: 10.2k/9, 3.0bb/9, 4.54era, 3.73fip

AA

1st yr: 7.0k/9, 6.8bb/9, 4.60era, 5.66fip
2nd yr: 9.5k/9, 3.5bb/9, 3.50era, 2.97fip

AAA

1st yr: 8.5k/9, 4.2bb/9, 5.56era, 4.43fip
2nd yr: 9.2k/9, 3.5bb/9, 3.59era, 3.24fip


Interesting track record for sure but he did eventually dominate at each level before moving up.
 
Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 3m
Hearing from multiple sources that Lester to #Orioles is not close. Doesn’t mean it won’t happen. But not happening yet.
 
zeke said:
Its really not true.
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It really is. At least in the context you're using against Norris/Sanchez. Sure you can make a prospect like Shark or Kluber look good over a 5+ yr minor league career (more when you consider NCAA numbers...) but you'll bash a kid who's been 2-3 years ahead of level, every year because his peripherals are a bit dodgy?

Your analysis start to lose it's meaning after a while man.
 
MindzEye said:
It really is. At least in the context you're using against Norris/Sanchez. Sure you can make a prospect like Shark or Kluber look good over a 5+ yr minor league career (more when you consider NCAA numbers...) but you'll bash a kid who's been 2-3 years ahead of level, every year because his peripherals are a bit dodgy?

Your analysis start to lose it's meaning after a while man.
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Yeah, stroman says hi again.

I think its amusing that someone so convinced that minor league hockey stats are useful woukd dismiss them in baseball.

And to be clear, sanchez' peripherals aren't a "bit" dodgy, they're a lot dodgy.

Sanchez has yet to put up a good line at any level. Seriously not even once. And he hasn't been overly young for any level. He's 21 this year...but an old 21....i.e. he's already 22 now. That's not young for AA and onky a tiny bit young for AAA.

Norris has...once. In 66ip.
 
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zeke said:
There are always outliers, but looking at his numbers i'm not sure kluber qualifies.

Kluber seems to have had a steady record of stumbling in his first try at every level, and then dominating after adjusting.
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Not sure how it doesn't qualify.....when the numbers you're using to judge Sanchez on, (his first time through a level).....were better, at a younger age, than Klubers were...


A+

Kluber 1st yr (22): 7.9k/9, 3.6bb/9, 6.01era,
Sanchez 1st yr (20): 7.8 k/9, 4.2 bb/9, 3.34 ERA

AA

Kluber 1st yr (23): 7.0k/9, 6.8bb/9, 4.60era,
Sanchez 1st yr (21): 7.8, 5.5 bb/9, 3.82 era

AAA

Kluber 1st yr (24): 8.5k/9, 4.2bb/9, 5.56era
Sanchez 1st yr (21): 7.1 k/9, 4.5 bb/9, 4.19era
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I'm not overly impressed or believe in Sanchez all that much, I'd happily trade him for a significant SP upgrade.....but as Mindz has said, your argument is all over the place, and changing with the wind.
 
zeke said:
Yeah, stroman says hi again.
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What are you on about? I didn't call Stroman shit, just didn't believe he'd be ready this early (or utilized).

I think its amusing that someone so convinced that minor league hockey stats are useful woukd dismiss them in baseball.
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Who's dismissing them? I'm a firmly believer that in proper context, they're very useful.

And to be clear, sanchez' peripherals aren't a "bit" dodgy, they're a lot dodgy.
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Semantics, but yeah and I've never claimed different. For the record (and feel free to go back into the discussions), I'm not against trading Sanchez, I'm just against trading him for a rental.

Sanchez has yet to put up a good line at any level. Seriously not even once. And he hasn't been overly young for any level. He's 21 this year...but an old 21....i.e. he's already 22 now. That's not young for AA and onky a tiny bit young for AAA.
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He's shown the ability to draw weak contact though as he's moved up, until AAA this year of course. Watching his GB% going forward is going to be interesting.


Norris has...once. In 66ip.
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Yep, but he misses a whole lot of bats and also induces a lot of weak contact. I'd rather trade Sanchez than Norris, and the same proviso applies. **** rentals.
 
Trading either of them, even both if them, won't gut our system in the least.

We've got plenty of big arms putting up better lines than they did a couple levels down.

In fact, their value may never be higher than it is right now.

And as a comparison, i would not trade stroman....even for a two year rental.
 
zeke said:
Trading either of them, even both if them, won't gut our system in the least.

We've got plenty of big arms putting up better lines than they did a couple levels down.
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None of them will be ready by 2016 when Dickey & MB's contract are up.

In fact, their value may never be higher than it is right now.
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And it may never be lower than it is right now...who the **** knows?


And as a comparison, i would not trade stroman....even for a two year rental.
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Love Stro, but if we're being real here, It's unlikely he sticks in the rotation long termi
 
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