OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

[zeke]

Plausible Best Possible Lineups....

This Year's stats only:

1. LF Lukes 127pa, .366obp, 127wrc+
2. 1B Guerrero 265pa, .398obp, 136wrc+
3. DH Springer 217pa, .374obp, 141wrc+
4. 3B Barger 136pa, .338obp, 137wrc+
5. SS Bichette 273pa, .322obp, 112wrc+
6. C Alejandro 187pa, .348obp, 108wrc+
7. CF Varsho 100pa, .240obp, 108wrc+
8. 2B Clement 193pa, .321obp, 103wrc+
9. RF Straw 109pa, .314obp, 93wrc+

UT Santander 209pa, .273obp, 66wrc+ --- Schneider 28pa, .393obp, 124wrc+ --- Stefanic 25pa, .280obp, 41wrc+
OF Clase 50pa, .347obp, 102wrc+ --------- Roden 85pa, .259obp, 50wrc+
IF Gimenez 147pa, .272obp, 65wrc+ ------ Wagner 68pa, .284obp, 51wrc+
C Heineman 51pa, .412obp, 142wrc+ ----- Sanchez 11pa, .182obp, 20wrc+



Past 1 Calendar Year Stats

1. LF Lukes 218pa, .368obp, 129wrc+
2. 1B Guerrero 704pa, .396obp, 166wrc+
3. DH Springer 607pa, .330obp, 118wrc+
4. RF Santander 652pa, .301obp, 116wrc+
5. C Alejandro 461pa, .336obp, 106wrc+
6. 3B Barger 343pa, .295obp, 104wrc+
7. 2B Clement 538pa, .303obp, 102wrc+
8. CF Varsho 407pa, .276obp, 94wrc+
9. SS Bichette 377pa, .305obp, 96wrc+

UT Wagner 154pa, .314obp, 93wrc+ --- Loperfido 219pa, .242obp, 62wrc+ ------ Schneider 293pa, .249obp, 51wrc+
OF Clase 81pa, .375obp, 126wrc+ ------ Straw 113pa, .312obp, 91wrc+ ---------- Roden 85pa, .259obp, 50wrc+
IF Jimenez 210pa, .329obp, 102wrc+ --- Gimenez 541pa, .275obp, 67wrc+ ------- Stefanic 149pa, .297obp, 60wrc+
C Heineman 65pa, .385obp, 142wrc+ -- Bethancourt 73pa, .274obp, 107wrc+ --- Sanchez 107pa, .208obp, 12wrc+



Projections

1. SS Bichette 405pa, .327obp, 117wrc+
2. 1B Guerrero 428pa, .374obp, 144wrc+
3. RF Santander 309pa, .312obp, 115wrc+
4. C Alejandro 303pa, .349obp, 115wrc+
5. LF Lukes 207pa, .341obp, 113wrc+
6. DH Springer 388pa, .330obp, 112wrc+
7. 3B Barger 309pa, .316obp, 109wrc+
8. CF Varsho 335pa, .292obp, 103wrc+
9. 2B Gimenez 401pa, .319obp, 103wrc+

UT Wagner 66pa, .344obp, 111wrc+ --- Schneider 79pa, .323obp, 108wrc+ -- Loperfido 22pa, .299obp, 95wrc+
OF Roden 185pa, .336obp, 108wrc+ --- Clase 84pa, .300obp, 89wrc+ -------- Straw 97pa, .304obp, 79wrc+
IF Clement 163pa, .307obp, 101wrc+ -- Jimenez 13pa, .335obp, 109wrc+ ---- Stefanic 9pa, .356obp, 109wrc+ --Martinez 26pa, .277obp, 87wrc+
C Heineman 105pa, .319obp, 90wrc+ -- Bethancourt 22pa, .278obp, 92wrc+ - Sanchez 4pa, .282obp, 77wrc+

 

[zeke]

This year's pitching so far:

 

[MindzEye]

Santander looks like maybe a marginal offensive upgrade, and likely significant defensive downgrade at the same time. We have a bunch of interesting candidates that are and could give us similar or better value tbh. Hopefully he goes on a power tear when the weather heats up, because that;'s his only tool.

Eh, I don't know how marginal of an upgrade it actually is. Lukes is a RHP only guy who is winning a gold glove sometime around when Santander wins one. Barger should probably be at 3B full time, he has the tools to be really good there.

Regarding Roden & Schneider....the projections are cute, but call me when they actually hit MLB pitching consistently before gifting them a lineup spot to fight over.

3 spots (LF, RF, DH) with only 2 everyday guys on your list with one of them being a guy who put up a 95 wRC+ last year and is 35 (36 by the end of the year). He's been great so far this year, but banking on him staying healthy and productive all year was (and still is) dodgy.

The bullpen is actually good, so I don't mind what they've done there at all. Hoffman has a weird HR problem this year but he's never had that before and everything else looks very good. And the rest of the bullpen has been very solid, even with a bunch of injuries.

But it's not good because of the aforementioned 25 millie though. Sure, subtract Hoffman from that if you want. Green and Yariel combined almost make as much as Santander. There's your depth starter.

 

[zeke]

Nah, the bullpen is good - top-10 to top-5 in most of the important stats. Even with a bunch of injuries. Green contract is the worst there but nothing crazy and he's still usable. Yariel is giving good value as a reliever.

as for the bats - I said it before the season, and it's been true during the season, and it still projects the same going forward - we have a whole bunch of interesting bats that are hitting and project to hit in that 105-115wrc+ type range. We'll probably be keeping youngish guys who deserve playing time in AAA just because Santander might be a marginal upgrade, IF he gets back on track. And while you might not think the other guys are reliable, we've just suffered through 1/3 of a season of Santander being legit unplayable, so what value does his supposed reliability even have?

 

[MindzEye]

Nah, the bullpen is good - top-10 to top-5 in most of the important stats. Even with a bunch of injuries. Green contract is the worst there but nothing crazy and he's still usable.

10 million for -0.4 WAR isn't really "still useable". Yariel at 7 million for 0.1 WAR isn't great either. But however you try to slice it, that's 17 million with minimal real upside in your bullpen when those are the exact type of players your farm system should be churning out for a wooden nickel each.

as for the bats - I said it before the season, and it's been true during the season, and it still projects the same going forward - we have a whole bunch of interesting bats that are hitting and project to hit in that 105-115wrc+ type range. We'll probably be keeping youngish guys who deserve playing time in AAA just because Santander might be a marginal upgrade, IF he gets back on track. And while you might not think the other guys are reliable, we've just suffered through 1/3 of a season of Santander being legit unplayable, so what value does his supposed reliability even have?

Santander being worth it is obviously predicated on getting the 2022-2024 Santander in the lineup. That guy is quite a bit more valuable than any of the AAA/AAAA randos you're talking about. Again, we're talking about 3 lineup spots to fill, and only 1 guy out of the bunch (omitting Santander) has been a MLB regular. You can't be remotely serious about trying to be a playoff team (which at our payroll, we should be trying to be) and have 3 spots being filled by 1 MLB regular, and that guy had a 95 wRC+ last year. Even if you have some pleasant surprises, there's still lots of places to put them in this lineup to get them PA's. Barger should be at 3rd, at Springer's age you should be aiming at 130-140 games tops with probably half of those DH anyway. Injuries are always a thing. Lots of opportunity for Schneider to prove that the hole in his swing isn't fatal at the MLB level, for Roden to prove he's not a AAAA player, to see if Lukes is just a platoon guy or not, etc.

Playing time to see what the fringe guys were was never going to be an issue. But yeah, if Santander is a 66 wRC+ bum, this is going to look bad. If he comes back and starts banging, he immediately goes to the 4-5 spots in your lineup and makes it look much deeper and better. From 22-24 Santander was worth 48.5 runs above average offensively. That would have been 2nd (distant, to Vladdy) on the Jays over that period. You're undervaluing what that guy would bring to this lineup.

 

[zeke]

10 million for -0.4 WAR isn't really "still useable". Yariel at 7 million for 0.1 WAR isn't great either. But however you try to slice it, that's 17 million with minimal real upside in your bullpen when those are the exact type of players your farm system should be churning out for a wooden nickel each.

obviously you could have perfect efficiency but overall the pen is very good.

and i never lean on fwar exclusively. They both look much better by ra9war, and Yariel has actually just been damn good since a rough first few outings.

Santander being worth it is obviously predicated on getting the 2022-2024 Santander in the lineup. That guy is quite a bit more valuable than any of the AAA/AAAA randos you're talking about. Again, we're talking about 3 lineup spots to fill, and only 1 guy out of the bunch (omitting Santander) has been a MLB regular. You can't be remotely serious about trying to be a playoff team (which at our payroll, we should be trying to be) and have 3 spots being filled by 1 MLB regular, and that guy had a 95 wRC+ last year. Even if you have some pleasant surprises, there's still lots of places to put them in this lineup to get them PA's. Barger should be at 3rd, at Springer's age you should be aiming at 130-140 games tops with probably half of those DH anyway. Injuries are always a thing. Lots of opportunity for Schneider to prove that the hole in his swing isn't fatal at the MLB level, for Roden to prove he's not a AAAA player, to see if Lukes is just a platoon guy or not, etc.

Playing time to see what the fringe guys were was never going to be an issue. But yeah, if Santander is a 66 wRC+ bum, this is going to look bad. If he comes back and starts banging, he immediately goes to the 4-5 spots in your lineup and makes it look much deeper and better. From 22-24 Santander was worth 48.5 runs above average offensively. That would have been 2nd (distant, to Vladdy) on the Jays over that period. You're undervaluing what that guy would bring to this lineup.

I'm absolutely serious. You keep doing this thing where you think projections are made up out of thin air, and not a direct product of all these players' actual production. You look at the yanks and orioles and rays and red sox and you'll them filling a whole bunch of positions with similar type players.

You underrated a whole bunch of jays position players coming into this year, and you're still trying to say you're right even though they're proving you wrong - just by doing what they were projected to. not even doing anything surprising.

And the point with this jays roster is that the sheer number of guys in this interesting group makes it unsurprising that some of them succeed, even while others flop. It's nice that the jays have been able to sit the flops and play the guys playing well for the most part......except when it comes to their big money adds, who they're now stuck playing even when they suck.

 

[MyNameIsJonas]

I kinda like all of Lukes/Straw/Clase as OF4/5

 

[MyNameIsJonas]

Yohendrick Pinango might be a thing.

 

[axlsalinger]

View: https://x.com/justin_hart/status/1930083101352571149

 

[MindzEye]

obviously you could have perfect efficiency but overall the pen is very good.

and i never lean on fwar exclusively. They both look much better by ra9war, and Yariel has actually just been damn good since a rough first few outings.



I'm absolutely serious. You keep doing this thing where you think projections are made up out of thin air, and not a direct product of all these players' actual production. You look at the yanks and orioles and rays and red sox and you'll them filling a whole bunch of positions with similar type players.

You underrated a whole bunch of jays position players coming into this year, and you're still trying to say you're right even though they're proving you wrong - just by doing what they were projected to. not even doing anything surprising.

And the point with this jays roster is that the sheer number of guys in this interesting group makes it unsurprising that some of them succeed, even while others flop. It's nice that the jays have been able to sit the flops and play the guys playing well for the most part......except when it comes to their big money adds, who they're now stuck playing even when they suck.

I mean...I said this:



So you know, pretending that I'm super duper dead wrong about all of our projections so far is uhhh...bullshit.

But even with that said, it's June 4th man, I'm not even trying to dunk on projections one way or another yet. It's a long ass season, small sample is small. I just disagree entirely that we had enough reliable MLB production in the lineup that we could just trust that Kirk was going to find his 120 wRC+ self, that multiple unheralded rando prospects were going to be able to carry the offence, etc. Especially when 2 of our "reliable" sticks sucked last year too.

and here we are at the beginning of June with a 106 wRC+, 10th in MLB and way behind the good offences in the league. Yes, the rotation has been a bigger problem, but there's a lot of salary to look at for re allocation before you look at the guy who has been ~125 wRC+ over the last 3 years, signed to a 18.5 million dollar deal.

 

[MyNameIsJonas]

As bad as Santander has looked, Andres Gimenez feels far more egregious when you consider Barger could have been the 3B and Clement/rando LHH could have been the 2B

 

[MyNameIsJonas]

As bad as Santander has looked, Andres Gimenez feels far more egregious when you consider Barger could have been the 3B and Clement/rando LHH could have been the 2B

In fact Horwitz as said LHH 2B would have been perfect

 

[axlsalinger]

In fact Horwitz as said LHH 2B would have been perfect

Come on man. Horwitz playing 2B looked like Rafael Araujo playing in the NBA.

 

[MyNameIsJonas]

Come on man. Horwitz playing 2B looked like Rafael Araujo playing in the NBA.

If the choice is Horwitz on one side of a platoon with Ernie to cover for him as a sub or 20M for Andres fucking Gimenez i know what my choice is.

 

[axlsalinger]

View: https://x.com/JomboyMedia/status/1930416594519290342

 

[MindzEye]

Bring on the robots!

 

[mbow30]

Bring on the robots!

That robot knows what’s up.

 

[zeke]

I mean...I said this:

View attachment 27290

So you know, pretending that I'm super duper dead wrong about all of our projections so far is uhhh...bullshit.

But even with that said, it's June 4th man, I'm not even trying to dunk on projections one way or another yet. It's a long ass season, small sample is small. I just disagree entirely that we had enough reliable MLB production in the lineup that we could just trust that Kirk was going to find his 120 wRC+ self, that multiple unheralded rando prospects were going to be able to carry the offence, etc. Especially when 2 of our "reliable" sticks sucked last year too.

and here we are at the beginning of June with a 106 wRC+, 10th in MLB and way behind the good offences in the league. Yes, the rotation has been a bigger problem, but there's a lot of salary to look at for re allocation before you look at the guy who has been ~125 wRC+ over the last 3 years, signed to a 18.5 million dollar deal.

Yeah you've been wrong about the projections.

You went through them all and actually argued that pretty much every one was overrating the jays player, instead of reasonably assuming that as many would be underrated as overrated....which is exactly what has happened.

 

[zeke]

In fact Horwitz as said LHH 2B would have been perfect

Clement hits righties just fine.

And there's Wagner and Jimenez still coming back from injury who are as good as horwitz offensively and actual infielders defensively.

 

[MindzEye]

Yeah you've been wrong about the projections.

You went through them all and actually argued that pretty much every one was overrating the jays player, instead of reasonably assuming that as many would be underrated as overrated....which is exactly what has happened.

Its June 5th