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OT: World Politics

MindzEye said:
Well...and if any of those are infected (highly likely), everyone those people have been within 2 metres of, etc.
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So the health authorities are lying?

Trust the experts unless you disagree with the experts in which case, you are the expert.
 
Altair said:
So the health authorities are lying?
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Where did I say they were lying? They're saying the risk is currently low, and it is currently low based off of available evidence which is that there are 2 cases in Toronto. Public speculation isn't part of their professional toolkit, they deal with confirmed facts when releasing public information.

Reasonable speculation isn't a ridiculous activity at this point for members of the general public.

www.sciencealert.com

Scientists Have Mapped How a Virus Spreads Through an Airplane Cabin

If you often find yourself coming down with a cold after taking a flight, take note: by mapping the spread of a virus through an aeroplane cabin, researchers have found that your chances of getting the sniffles largely depend on how much you move about.
www.sciencealert.com www.sciencealert.com

Based on influenza models, the new study shows you have an 80 percent chance of getting the flu off someone if you're sitting in the row in front or the row behind, or within two seats to either side. Otherwise, your chance of infection drops all the way down to 3 percent.

But... that's assuming you stay still. Move around the cabin, and you're more likely to come into contact with a passenger or a crew member suffering from a cold. The advice seems to be, if you want to stay well by the end of your trip, try and limit the amount of walking around you do while up in the air.
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So what do we know?

-We know that an infected person was in a tube for 18 hours with approx 300 other people
-We know that there is a very high likelihood that other people on the plane were infected. According to research, we can expect at least 10-15 additional infections from the people on the plane (and that's a conservative estimate based on the infected gentleman not getting up for 18 hours). Now, it's possible that public health officials have gotten their hands on everyone who is at higher risk, quarantined them and tested them....but we haven't heard anything about that to my knowledge. So it's not unreasonable to expect that those 10-15+ people are roaming around in there public lives coming within 2 metres of a number of people.
-We know that an infected person can be fully contagious, but not symptomatic for 14 days.

No, I don't think Public Health officials are "lying", but they're also not saying everything there is to say, because that's just the appropriate level of message control right now.
 
MindzEye said:
Where did I say they were lying? They're saying the risk is currently low, and it is currently low based off of available evidence which is that there are 2 cases in Toronto. Public speculation isn't part of their professional toolkit, they deal with confirmed facts when releasing public information.

Reasonable speculation isn't a ridiculous activity at this point for members of the general public.

www.sciencealert.com

Scientists Have Mapped How a Virus Spreads Through an Airplane Cabin

If you often find yourself coming down with a cold after taking a flight, take note: by mapping the spread of a virus through an aeroplane cabin, researchers have found that your chances of getting the sniffles largely depend on how much you move about.
www.sciencealert.com www.sciencealert.com



So what do we know?

-We know that an infected person was in a tube for 18 hours with approx 300 other people
-We know that there is a very high likelihood that other people on the plane were infected. According to research, we can expect at least 10-15 additional infections from the people on the plane (and that's a conservative estimate based on the infected gentleman not getting up for 18 hours). Now, it's possible that public health officials have gotten their hands on everyone who is at higher risk, quarantined them and tested them....but we haven't heard anything about that to my knowledge. So it's not unreasonable to expect that those 10-15+ people are roaming around in there public lives coming within 2 metres of a number of people.
-We know that an infected person can be fully contagious, but not symptomatic for 14 days.

No, I don't think Public Health officials are "lying", but they're also not saying everything there is to say, because that's just the appropriate level of message control right now.
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What you are describing does not sound like low risk to me, but again, I highly doubt what you are describing is what is happening so I'll just trust the health officials here and ignore your sky is falling narrative.

Same thing I do for those who dismiss climate change scientists and those who believe the deep state is out to get trump.
 
Altair said:
What you are describing does not sound like low risk to me, but again, I highly doubt what you are describing is what is happening so I'll just trust the health officials here and ignore your sky is falling narrative.

Same thing I do for those who dismiss climate change scientists and those who believe the deep state is out to get trump.
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Everything I just said is based on established medical knowledge. The likelihood that there are additional infections we don't know about is near certain.

You're the one dismissing the science here, not me.
 

The agency is also awaiting test results for the 19 people under investigation, while the illness was ruled out in the cases of 15 others, said Dr. Barbara Yaffe, associate chief medical officer of health in Ontario. The "vast majority" of the 19 people under investigation are currently in hospital and in isolation, she continued.

"We're being extra, extra cautious about this," Yaffe said.
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De Villa said Toronto Public Health has been "working flat out" to identify any potential contacts the two people might have had in the city.
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So likely every possible case is in hospital and in isolation. 15 tested and ruled out.

Canada has got this.
 
Was supposed to go to Bali, Vietnam and Thailand in May but wondering if I should change my plans now. No flights booked yet.
 
hockeylover said:
Was supposed to go to Bali, Vietnam and Thailand in May but wondering if I should change my plans now. No flights booked yet.
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Unless the flights are dirt cheap now and the difference in cost is worth the risk, I'd hold off. If the flights will be similar or slightly more expensive in a month, I'd just wait to see how this plays out. SARS was 9 months in total, for comparisons sake.
 
MindzEye said:
Unless the flights are dirt cheap now and the difference in cost is worth the risk, I'd hold off. If the flights will be similar or slightly more expensive in a month, I'd just wait to see how this plays out. SARS was 9 months in total, for comparisons sake.
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meh only a 1-2% mortality rate
 
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