Play-in Round: Toronto Maple Leafs (8) vs Columbus Blue Jackets (9)
- Thread starter Killer93
- Start date
Jeremy
Well-known member
Your 2020 Stanley Cup winners!
zeke
Well-known member
Habs are actually a pretty perfect opponent for us to prep for the Jackets series.
they are actually quite similar teams - well coached hardworking fast forechecking teams that play good possession hockey (MTL is actually way better in that dept tho) and have a lack of elite finishing talent up front.
the score is irrelevant, but it will be interesting to see how the Leafs fare possession-wise against an undertalented but elite possession team.
they are actually quite similar teams - well coached hardworking fast forechecking teams that play good possession hockey (MTL is actually way better in that dept tho) and have a lack of elite finishing talent up front.
the score is irrelevant, but it will be interesting to see how the Leafs fare possession-wise against an undertalented but elite possession team.
zeke
Well-known member
After trying to force depth into his lineups by sticking kids up top, looks like Torts has consolidated his top 6 and settled on his lines for now at least:
Hyman-Matthews-Nylander ------ Foligno-Dubois-Bjornqvist
Mikheyev-Tavares-Marner --------- Nyquist-Jenner-Atkinson
Robertson-Kerfoot-Kapanen ----- Texier-Wennberg-Bemstrom
Clifford-Engvall-Spezza ------------- Robinson-Nash-Foudy
Rielly-Ceci ‐-------‐------- Werenski-Jones
Muzzin-Holl ------------- Gavrikov-Savard
Dermott-Barrie --------- Murray-Kukan
Hyman-Matthews-Nylander ------ Foligno-Dubois-Bjornqvist
Mikheyev-Tavares-Marner --------- Nyquist-Jenner-Atkinson
Robertson-Kerfoot-Kapanen ----- Texier-Wennberg-Bemstrom
Clifford-Engvall-Spezza ------------- Robinson-Nash-Foudy
Rielly-Ceci ‐-------‐------- Werenski-Jones
Muzzin-Holl ------------- Gavrikov-Savard
Dermott-Barrie --------- Murray-Kukan
Wayward DP
Well-known member
I mean their top-six just doesn't hold a candle to ours. Essential that our guys deliver and outplay theirs. Really none of our forward lines should get outplayed.
CBJ does have the best d-pairing in the series though.
CBJ does have the best d-pairing in the series though.
zeke
Well-known member
Numbers say Muzz-Holl is the best pairing.
P.s. werenski-jones get secondary matchups behind the matchup pair of gavrikov-savard.
zeke
Well-known member
So I've given up on Manny getting corsica back up and running this year, so I've done some work arounds.
The biggest loss here are his zone adjustments - now in addition to mentally adjusting for QOC, we have to adjust for zone usage as well.
The good news is I found a good substitute for QOC from PuckIQ - they have a measure where they take TOI% vs Elite players and subtract TOI% vs "Grittensity" (I.e. bad) players. Obviously, the higher that number the harder the qoc.
In addition, I manufactured my own zone usage metric - I took Defensive Zone Starts Percentage and then subtracted Offensive Zone Starts Percentage - again giving us a number where the higher the number the harder the usage.
I also decided to stop averaging out xgf and cf and just use straight up xgf%.
One thing I don't love is that to get the proper splits i have to rely entirely on Evolvinghockey.com, and I don't love their Relative metric. But screw it, it's good enough.
Anyways, here's how the series breaks down based on likely lines and pairs - remember to note the QOC and Zone Differential (the higher the harder) and consider it when looking at the raw production and xgf%.
The biggest loss here are his zone adjustments - now in addition to mentally adjusting for QOC, we have to adjust for zone usage as well.
The good news is I found a good substitute for QOC from PuckIQ - they have a measure where they take TOI% vs Elite players and subtract TOI% vs "Grittensity" (I.e. bad) players. Obviously, the higher that number the harder the qoc.
In addition, I manufactured my own zone usage metric - I took Defensive Zone Starts Percentage and then subtracted Offensive Zone Starts Percentage - again giving us a number where the higher the number the harder the usage.
I also decided to stop averaging out xgf and cf and just use straight up xgf%.
One thing I don't love is that to get the proper splits i have to rely entirely on Evolvinghockey.com, and I don't love their Relative metric. But screw it, it's good enough.
Anyways, here's how the series breaks down based on likely lines and pairs - remember to note the QOC and Zone Differential (the higher the harder) and consider it when looking at the raw production and xgf%.
leafman101
Well-known member
zeke
Well-known member
Foudy has only a 2 game sample. The numbers are right, but not so useful.
zeke
Well-known member
Yeah there's a chance Jones is the new Phaneuf.
zeke
Well-known member
Analyzing the psychology of the big break is prone to bias, but i have to think that not many team would benefit more from the big break than the leafs.
Not only in getting physically healthy for the first time, but more just putting that ugly season behind them - the horrific start, the long slog playing catchup the rest of the year, the hit after hit of major players going down, and the frustration of having awful goaltending behind them.
Putting all that behind them and getting a clean slate where they're now on even terms with everyone else and just have to worry abouy beating the team they're playing -- and knowing they have the talent to beat anyone AND a coach that will let them decide it - I think it'll suit this team just fine.
Not only in getting physically healthy for the first time, but more just putting that ugly season behind them - the horrific start, the long slog playing catchup the rest of the year, the hit after hit of major players going down, and the frustration of having awful goaltending behind them.
Putting all that behind them and getting a clean slate where they're now on even terms with everyone else and just have to worry abouy beating the team they're playing -- and knowing they have the talent to beat anyone AND a coach that will let them decide it - I think it'll suit this team just fine.
BeLeafer
Well-known member
Yeah, the season had a stink to it.
The biggest advantage they have relative to if the season was normal is that Keefe, Dubas and the brains have had a chance to get their shit sorted after the midseason change and then have lots of time work in changes with the team. I think we'll see an improved level of play that we wouldn't have seen otherwise.
zeke
Well-known member
Yeah you know he was sending them homework all break, and now they actually got a training camp with the new coach to boot, where he wasn't just in a desperation emergency situation with no real practice time.