hockeylover
Well-known member
At 17...
D Legwand 105 points in 59 games
R Neidermayer 77 points in 52 games
J Staal 68 points in 68 games
L Crouse 51 points in 56 games
The 2015 Draft Lottery McEichel sweepstakes thread
- Thread starter JamesNorthern
- Start date
At 17...
D Legwand 105 points in 59 games
R Neidermayer 77 points in 52 games
J Staal 68 points in 68 games
L Crouse 51 points in 56 games
JamesNorthern
Active member
At least we all agree that Crouse should drop down from the 5th spot.
Hockeylover, no I didn't go and inspect all of the top 50 CHL scorers. But from the top 5-7 players, yes. They all, including Connor McDavid played on lines with other elite talent and maybe consequential or not - had winning teams. It is why people are saying that Strome is the real deal and not just because he played with Connor McDavid. That team had two outstanding lines featuring one each of those two players. Marner played on arguable the best line in all of OHL last year, with Domi and Dvorak.
It isn't a reason to draft him at 5th nor the only reason why he doesn't seem to have the numbers to support his high ranking. Just another among a few that have it that he is. Like the size and skating. the little things. the team he played on. etc.
Conversely, there are many many many cases of players who were expected to continue prolific scoring from junior to NHL who haven't.
Anyway, Hanifin or Marner for me. In that order.
Hockeylover, no I didn't go and inspect all of the top 50 CHL scorers. But from the top 5-7 players, yes. They all, including Connor McDavid played on lines with other elite talent and maybe consequential or not - had winning teams. It is why people are saying that Strome is the real deal and not just because he played with Connor McDavid. That team had two outstanding lines featuring one each of those two players. Marner played on arguable the best line in all of OHL last year, with Domi and Dvorak.
It isn't a reason to draft him at 5th nor the only reason why he doesn't seem to have the numbers to support his high ranking. Just another among a few that have it that he is. Like the size and skating. the little things. the team he played on. etc.
Conversely, there are many many many cases of players who were expected to continue prolific scoring from junior to NHL who haven't.
Anyway, Hanifin or Marner for me. In that order.
And again ... the tag on those guys was all "they aren't natural offensive players, but they'll develop an offensive game" regardless of their scoring production in junior.
Bottom line ... the ONLY reason I wouldn't advocate Carolina taking Crouse at 5 is the dire nature of their talent pool franchise-wide. They've got grinders and defensive forwards and "potential" guys. What they don't have is skill guys. Crouse could and probably will work out just fine for whoever takes him. I just don't think he's the right fit here. Marner? Fine. Hanifan? Fine, because the other thing the franchise historically lacks is defense and hould set you up nicely for a couple years down the road. Crouse? Frankly, I'd trade down and try and double the opportunityif that's where you're going at 5.
cmaleski2
Well-known member
I still think some of Jordan's draft stock was tied to what brother Eric did at the NHL level the season before Jordan was drafted. I remember the debates on a long gone precursor to this board prior to the 2003 draft where we were discussing Eric Staal vs. Nathan Horton. Eric was the 'safer' pick as he had a more complete 2 way game according to the pundits at that time. Horton was the more physical in your face power forward with the bigger offensive upside. We even talked about how exciting Zherdev's scoring abilities might look in a Canes uniform (thank goodness that didn't happen) Jordan's stats were not as big as Eric's OHL stats as a 17 year old, but I don't think anyone saw Eric's 100 point season coming in his 2nd full NHL season, that offensive explosion was kind of a stunner at the time.
Eric's success might not have been a big factor in Pittsburgh's decision to draft Jordan 2nd overall, but I would be surprised if that wasn't at least part of the thought process. And after Jordan scored 29 goals as an 18 year old for the Pens that pick sure looked like a winner at the time. Don't know what happened to that Jordan Staal but I would like to see him back sometime over the remaining 8 seasons of his contract.
Since I was talking about the 2003 draft, I'm going to be totally unfair to Crouse and say I fear he will end up more like Hugh Jessiman than Milan Lucic at the NHL level. Even if you guarenteed me Crouse would quickly develop into Milan Lucic for the Canes I would still say pick Marner or Hanifin over Crouse. You find that Lucic type of player in the late first round or 2nd round, not #5 overall when your options are the best Dman in the draft with size and skill or a highly skilled high scoring forward with more skills than anyone currently in your organization who just had a monster season in the OHL.
Its not going to surprise me if on draft day Crouse falls even past the #6 overall pick. His stats do matter and when it comes time for a GM to make their pick I expect those stats to be a factor....
That's my opinion :smilewinkgrin:
Eric's success might not have been a big factor in Pittsburgh's decision to draft Jordan 2nd overall, but I would be surprised if that wasn't at least part of the thought process. And after Jordan scored 29 goals as an 18 year old for the Pens that pick sure looked like a winner at the time. Don't know what happened to that Jordan Staal but I would like to see him back sometime over the remaining 8 seasons of his contract.
Since I was talking about the 2003 draft, I'm going to be totally unfair to Crouse and say I fear he will end up more like Hugh Jessiman than Milan Lucic at the NHL level. Even if you guarenteed me Crouse would quickly develop into Milan Lucic for the Canes I would still say pick Marner or Hanifin over Crouse. You find that Lucic type of player in the late first round or 2nd round, not #5 overall when your options are the best Dman in the draft with size and skill or a highly skilled high scoring forward with more skills than anyone currently in your organization who just had a monster season in the OHL.
Its not going to surprise me if on draft day Crouse falls even past the #6 overall pick. His stats do matter and when it comes time for a GM to make their pick I expect those stats to be a factor....
That's my opinion :smilewinkgrin:
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JamesNorthern
Active member
QFT
As much as you could be right re Jordan... he is the same size as Crouse and also touted for doing all the little things right... but he outscored Crouse by a decent amount. So I don't doubt that Staal would have still been very highly touted without the bloodlines.
CanadaCanes
Well-known member
If you go back to the draft from 2014, the Canes had an opportunity to draft Nick Ritchie from Peterborough in the 7th spot...6'3", 230 pounds with just as much upside as Crouse...this was in a draft where there was no one even close left on the board that has the talent level of a Mitch Marner and the Canes passed. Looking back, that might have been the chance to grab the power forward as Ritchie has looked great all year long. It's Marner or Hanifin at 5th this time around no matter how you slice it unless the 5th pick gets traded.
Elsker
Well-known member
Actually, they were not that far apart in juniors production their draft year and I have seen comparisons made between them.
Jordan Staal: 68GP 28-40-68 (0.41 goals-per-game / 1.00 points-per-game)
Lawson Crouse: 56GP 29-22-51 (0.52 goals-per-game / 0.91 points-per-game)
That's my point though. I like Staal and he's a good hockey player. If I could get a guy like that in the late 1st or later I'd be very happy. But 4th or 5th overall in a crazy good draft class? Not so much.
And 1 ppg to .091 is almost 10% better. That's not massive but it's significant. Never mind passing up on Marner who was like 110% more productive than Crouse.
Note: I'm not saying you advocate taking Crouse over Marner.
Elsker
Well-known member
I know you are not and point production (due to assists) was indeed 10 percent greater for Jordan during his juniors draft year.
However, conversely Lawson's goal production was 27 percent greater than Jordan's during his juniors draft year.
And, worth noting is that to have assists, one needs good line mates, which Lawson may have been lacking on his reportedly weak team.
However, even though possibly "Jordan-good" (possession stats unknown/unresearched by me), and noting Jordan went #2 overall his draft year...I still don't see Crouse as a #5 selection in this very deep draft pool.
However, conversely Lawson's goal production was 27 percent greater than Jordan's during his juniors draft year.
And, worth noting is that to have assists, one needs good line mates, which Lawson may have been lacking on his reportedly weak team.
However, even though possibly "Jordan-good" (possession stats unknown/unresearched by me), and noting Jordan went #2 overall his draft year...I still don't see Crouse as a #5 selection in this very deep draft pool.
And the guy went 2nd overall in a kind of crappy draft class.
Here's the thing ... this stuff is NOT easy. Look at Central Scouting's rankings ahead of the 2006 Draft ... especially the Euro rankings. That's the collected wisdom of a bajillion years worth of scouting experience. Tlusty was the 3rd ranked Euro and FIVE of those ten are "where are they now" fodder. Seriously. When fans start talking like this selection and scouting process should be simple stuff ... it drives me slightly beyond nuts.
JamesNorthern
Active member
Yes, there is NOTHING sure about any of this. So when picking high up there, you go with who's the best talent available and after that, go with what your team needs. Hanifin and Marner are both players we could use. We could use a guy like Crouse too, but I, like most would prefer we get that later on in the draft (2nd round pick)
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=5714
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=5714
But his cousin sure can play...
Elsker
Well-known member
hockeylover
Well-known member
I'm guessing you think I'm one of these people since I disagree with the experts' rankings but I think what you just said shows pretty clearly that this isn't a perfect science and professionals do get it wrong - I think this is one of those times. If he proves me wrong at the NHL level, I'll be glad to own up to that.
hockeylover
Well-known member
Kinda makes sense though. One's a centre, one's a winger.
SlapShots
Well-known member
Intersting to note, when RF and BP were in Ottawa together earlier this season when the Canes were playing the Sens, they scouted Roland McKeown prior to making the trade with LAK. Lawson Crouse also played in that game-- no doubt they took the opportunity to scout him as well.
No. Not really. I have an annual ritual where I caution people about falling in love with one prospect and then getting super angry when your team goes another direction. Because, I find that to be just flat out silly. Unless you live in certain parts of Ontario and are so inclined, a fan just doesn't have anything like the information required to support that kind of position.
Likewise, we like to analyse the daylights out of YouTube clips and numbers to get a read on a prospect that real live professional scouts have seen in person a million times. I think it's OK to have a suspicion that a guy is over or under rated, but honestly even the pros get this stuff wrong like 30-40% of the time so it's dumb to get all emotional about it.
Like I say ... I do this every year and nobody listens to me. So I'm just as silly as the people I mildly chastise.
bagopux
Well-known member
Did you say something? I couldn't hear over the din of the draft frenzy.
While I wholeheartedly agree with the sentiment... I do think it's completely valid to really prefer a certain type of draft strategy over another. While "big, strong" kids who do "all the little things right" but haven't produced in junior can develop into very valuable players. I prefer the strategy where you try to pluck those guys with later picks and shoot for high end talent early on.
So while I may not know the ins and outs of every prospect per se, I think it's fair to be very upset when your team's strategy veers from what you feel they should be doing. Sometimes you get pissed off and you turn out right... and other times you have to eat some crow.
I remember when the Habs took Price 5th overall. I was sooooo pissed off that they took a goalie... especially since we had Jose Theodore who was coming off a really good year and only a couple years removed from a Hart and Vezina. I wanted Gilbert Brule who was a skilled kid. I happily feast on that crow.
The Habs also took a lot of big strong kids who did all the little things right who they felt would develop and they busted. David Fischer, Kyle Chipchura and a lot of others over the years.