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The New Division

I think I'd take JVR over Ryan as well. I'd say if we had to use a Hab as a comparable it'd be Pacioretty. I think JVR is closer to Max than Ryan is.
 
Habspatrol said:
I think I'd take JVR over Ryan as well. I'd say if we had to use a Hab as a comparable it'd be Pacioretty. I think JVR is closer to Max than Ryan is.
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Similar players actually, JVR and MaxPac. I peg JVR's ultimate upside at about what Max has become. Well rounded ~70 point power winger. Though I think JVR needs to take a step forward this season if he's going to get there. He was on a 31G 55Pt pace last season, I'd love to see him in the 30-35G, 65PT range this season.
 
MindzEye said:
We could, but I had that disagreement with Zeke once and he swayed me. 2 yr splits > 3 yr splits
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to be fair, kessel and ryan are both approaching the edge where the difference between the two should be negligible....the 3yr splits are more deceiving when it comes to very young or very old players....though in this case at ages 23-25 the 3yr splits still cover fairly young years.

still, if you were to use the 3yr splits, you'd probably want to weight them to make the more recent year significantly more valuable than the older ones.


For the record, I wouldn't be shocked to see Ryan get back to 35gl/70pt form if he can keep a fulltime firstline role with Spezza, but that IMO would be best case scenario....the idea that he will be significantly better than that IMO is not impossible, but probably a pipe dream. And I'd bet on the under in regards to a 35gl/70pt pace anyways.

Milan Michalek isn't quite as talented as Ryan, but he had similar early career success with an elite centre (Thornton), faded a little bit, then got back to early career form once he got back to fulltime first line minutes:

Michalek:

Age 20: 81gms, 17gls, 35pts, 15:46 (82gms, 17gls, 36pts)
Age 21: 78gms, 26gls, 66pts, 16:46 (82gms, 27gls, 69pts)
Age 22: 79gms, 24gls, 55pts, 18:05 (82gms, 25gls, 57pts)
-------- signs big contract ---------
Age 23: 77gms, 23gls, 57pts, 18:27 (82gms, 25gls, 61pts)
--------- traded to Ottawa ---------
Age 24: 66gms, 22gls, 34pts, 18:15 (82gms, 27gls, 42pts)
Age 25: 66gms, 18gls, 33pts, 18:04 (82gms, 22gls, 41pts)
Age 26: 77gms, 35gls, 60pts, 19:33 (82gms, 37gls, 64pts)
Age 27: 23gms, 4gls, 14pts, 18:11 (82gms, 14gls, 50pts)

Michalek actually suffered a drop moving from thornton to spezza, even with similar minutes, before having a big year in his 3rd year with Ottawa getting the most minutes of his career, in which he got back to a similar level as was at earlier in his career in more limited minutes.

Ryan:

Age 20: 23gms, 5gls, 10pts, 11:16 (82gms, 18gls, 36pts)
Age 21: 64gms, 31gls, 57pts, 15:26 (82gms, 40gls, 73pts)
Age 22: 81gms, 35gls, 64pts, 18:29 (82gms, 35gls, 65pts)
-------- signs big contract ---------
Age 23: 82gms, 34gls, 71pts, 20:11 (82gms, 34gls, 71pts)
Age 24: 82gms, 31gls, 57pts, 18:21 (82gms, 31gls, 57pts)
Age 25: 46gms, 11gls, 30pts, 16:35 (82gms, 20gls, 54pts)
-------- traded to Ottawa ----------

It's actually closer than I thought. Ryan didn't quite have the injury-related lows that Michalek did, but otherwise their careers have seen similar highs and similar trajectories.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Ryan get back to his peak form like Michalek did, but it's interesting that Michalek needed bigger minutes in Ottawa to match his early career highs in fewer minutes in SJS. I also wonder about the effects of those big contract signings on each player's work ethic.

And another side effect of Ryan getting full minutes with Spezza is that it might mean Michalek is demoted to a second line and goes back to being just a 40-50pt 2nd liner again.
 
MindzEye said:
Similar players actually, JVR and MaxPac. I peg JVR's ultimate upside at about what Max has become. Well rounded ~70 point power winger. Though I think JVR needs to take a step forward this season if he's going to get there. He was on a 31G 55Pt pace last season, I'd love to see him in the 30-35G, 65PT range this season.
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Yeah fair enough. Although I believe that Ryan actually has the highest upside of any of them... but he's also the least likely to reach that potential.
 
I have a hard time assuming increased production due to Spezza. Top end centre, borderline top 5 in the league, but he's now missed 85 games over the last 4 seasons, has what appears to be a chronic back issue, and is now on the wrong side of 30 yrs old which means he's likely to become less durable before he becomes more durable. Over his career, he's played more than 68 games just 4 times in 9 full NHL seasons (the 10th being his rookie season...33gp)
 
Habspatrol said:
Yeah fair enough. Although I believe that Ryan actually has the highest upside of any of them... but he's also the least likely to reach that potential.
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Jonas can confirm this for anyone who doubts, but I never saw it, so it's not like this is a new position for me because he's now a Sen. People used to think that he had 85-90 point upside and I never saw the hockey IQ or passing vision required for a non physical player without elite speed to reach those type of totals. I think he'll rebound somewhat in Ottawa and push the 65-70 point level in years that Spezza is healthy. I do think though that the Stache will have some serious issues with his work ethic and attention to detail, and that there could be some friction there.

If he struggles this season, or ends up in the Stache's doghouse, his stay in Ottawa could be short.
 
I think the myth of Spezza (at this point) to sens fans right now is that Michalek had that big year in 11-12 on Spezza's wing. Not sure most sens fans remember that that was what Michalek was supposed to be from the time they traded for him. I'd have to doublecheck but I think there's more evidence that Alfredsson has consistently boosted his linemates' production than Spezza has.
 
MindzEye said:
Jonas can confirm this for anyone who doubts, but I never saw it, so it's not like this is a new position for me because he's now a Sen. People used to think that he had 85-90 point upside and I never saw the hockey IQ or passing vision required for a non physical player without elite speed to reach those type of totals. I think he'll rebound somewhat in Ottawa and push the 65-70 point level in years that Spezza is healthy. I do think though that the Stache will have some serious issues with his work ethic and attention to detail, and that there could be some friction there.

If he struggles this season, or ends up in the Stache's doghouse, his stay in Ottawa could be short.
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Which is why I figure he has the least chance of reaching that potential. The guy is extremely talented.... problem is that he's lazy and doesn't have the hockey IQ.
 
This whole debate is based on 1.5 years.

I believe Ryan is a 30/70 guy on the Sens.
I believe Kessel is a 35/80 guy on the Leafs.

Kessel has proven to be the better player, but that doesn't mean they aren't in the same scope.
 
the funny thing is that you're counting on the Spezza factor to get Ryan back to that 70pt level, meanwhile Kessel has been an ppg+ player the last couple of seasons playing with Bozak.
 
but in the end, Kessel has produced at pace 30 points better than Ryan the past 2 seasons.

30 points.

that is massive.
 
corksens said:
This whole debate is based on 1.5 years.

I believe Ryan is a 30/70 guy on the Sens.
I believe Kessel is a 35/80 guy on the Leafs.

Kessel has proven to be the better player, but that doesn't mean they aren't in the same scope.
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Curious... rank Pacioretty, Ryan and Kessel in order of best to worst.
 
corksens said:
This whole debate is based on 1.5 years.

I believe Ryan is a 30/70 guy on the Sens.
I believe Kessel is a 35/80 guy on the Leafs.

Kessel has proven to be the better player, but that doesn't mean they aren't in the same scope.
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I think it's more like 35/26 for Ryan historically, pretty goal heavy. On the Sens I can see him hitting 40 if Spezza is healthy and the bounces go his way. But we all know Spezza won't stay healthy so it will be more like 35-30. Karlsson should work well with them on the PP which is an advantage.

All this being said Kessel is better - his Center is Bozak for crying out loud. It's like Sundin playing with a marginally improved Hoglund.
 
Blueman said:
I think it's more like 35/26 for Ryan historically, pretty goal heavy. On the Sens I can see him hitting 40 if Spezza is healthy and the bounces go his way. But we all know Spezza won't stay healthy so it will be more like 35-30. Karlsson should work well with them on the PP which is an advantage.

All this being said Kessel is better - his Center is Bozak for crying out loud. It's like Sundin playing with a marginally improved Hoglund.
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Yeah, over his career Ryan has a Goal/Assist bias of nearly 1/1 (147/142), and in the last 2 seasons 42/45...which I think has more to do with how poor he was at burying the puck last season more so than any sort of spike in assists (82 game pace of 34). So I have a hard time believing Ryan will put up a 30 goal, 40 assist type season with any sort of regularity. His track record suggests that to his 70 points he's going to have to be in the 35 goal range. Even then, of course, he doesn't have Perry & Getzlaf any more. He takes a bit of a hit in his linemates overall, so that's going to be difficult.
 
corksens said:
He's got Spezza - not to mention Karlsson.
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In his only 70 point season he had Hart trophy Perry, PPG+ Getzlaf, PPG Selanne, 68 point Visnovsky and 40 point Fowler on the back end. He was about as well insulated offensively as you could possibly be. It's no surprise that as that insulation diminished around him, so did he.
 
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